Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 272032
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS OF 20Z
IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SWATH OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS RETREATING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
HENCE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER STILL ARE PRESENT IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA A TAD LONGER...BUT AN
NEW DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL REINFORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUPPORT THIS TREND AND AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE TONIGHT AND HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE STUBBORN RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD THOUGH...QUITE A STRONG MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP RAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COLDER AIR MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN OR
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA. ANY INSTANCES THAT
DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL...A WET AND RAINY END TO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING TO THE NEW
WEEK IS ON TAP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT AS A MOISTURE LADEN
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z WITH CEILINGS DROPPING
TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BY 12Z OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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