Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261338
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS
STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL
CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND
WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS
SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE
BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.

DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE
REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z AS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO
IFR ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
CEILINGS RAISING UP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BETWEEN 4 AND 10Z
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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