Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 050019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
719 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOTABLE CLEARING IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDS
DECREASING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS


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