Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 012025
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

As of mid afternoon, a closed upper low was over eastern Ontario
and western Quebec with a general broad trough over much of the
CONUS and North America. At the sfc, high pressure was centered
over the lower MS Valley with ridging extending into the OH and TN
Valleys. Locally, the stratus and stratus has lifted into cu and
has been mixing out from the south and west.

This evening through Friday, the upper level low will move into
the St Lawrence Valley and Maritimes with a couple of weak
disturbances rotating around it across the OH Valley and Great
Lakes. One of these may lead to an increase in low and mid clouds
tonight, with some mid level height rises to follow on Friday. At
the sfc, high pressure will continue building into the area. Mid
level height rises should continue into Friday night with a ridge
of sfc high pressure in place.

Although bands of clouds will move through the area from time to
time, particularly later tonight and again Saturday night, dry
weather is anticipated through the period. 850 mb temperatures are
progged to be 0C or lower for most of the period and this combined
with some clouds will lead to below normal temperatures through
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

The extended period will feature three separate precipitation
events. The first is forecast to occur late Saturday night through
Sunday night. Two weather systems will partially phase together and
affect our area. One will be a northern stream system that is
progged to move across the norther CONUS and across the Great Lakes
and New England regions. The second system will be a weaker southern
stream system that looks to move along the Gulf Coast. The result
will be scattered rain to at times numerous rain showers across
eastern Kentucky. Temperatures may be even be cold enough late
Saturday into early Sunday morning to allow some snow to mix with
the rain across our area. The ground will still be far too warm for
any snow accumulations to occur. A second weather system is progged
to bring another extended round of rain to the area Monday through
Tuesday. This air mass with this second weather system should be
warm enough to keep all precipitation in liquid form. This second
trough of low pressure should bring a good wetting rain to the area.
After This trough departs to our east, another trough of low
pressure aloft is forecast to move in from the west Wednesday night
into Thursday. This trough has much more uncertainty associated with
it since it is entering the picture near the end of the forecast
period. There is a small chance of this system also having some
mixed precipitation late Wednesday into early Thursday, but will
hold off on introducing any wintry precip for now due to model
uncertainty.

Temperatures for most of the period look to be below normal, with
several days having highs in the 40s, as a series of cold air masses
move across the region. Nightly lows will be generally in the 30s
and 40s. The exception will be the middle of the week, as southerly
flow increases some ahead of an approaching trough. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday could top out in the 50s, and maybe even top 60, as
winds become persistent out of the south and southwest on both of
those days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

A stratus and stratocu deck has lifted into a cu deck across much
of the area, though it is scattering out from the south and west.
Low level moisture is expected to remain and as an upper level
disturbance rotates through the OH Valley, a VFR deck may return
later tonight into early on Friday. Thus, VFR should prevail through
the period. West/southwest winds near 10 kts are expected to start
the period, with gusts as high as 15-20 kt. However, these winds
will diminish by the 21Z to 0Z period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP



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