Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290653 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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