Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 231038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW






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