Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ






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