Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH
A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REIGN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING
TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH
DID UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING PERIODS OF ADVERTISED WEAKER
FORCING...AS MODELS TEND TO INFLATE THE CONVECTION IN GENERAL. THE
BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
TANDEM WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE SUN COMES UP AND THINGS BEGIN TO HEAT UP A BIT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD WHEN
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WOULD FIRST BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ANY AIRPORT THAT EXPERIENCES A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE ON TAP AND COULD CREATE
ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



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