Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 042356 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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