Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
133 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Issued at 128 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Forecast seems to be in good shape right now, with mostly clear
skies still in place. Loaded in the latest observations to make
sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was
on track with current conditions. All changes have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. No forecast package updates are needed at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Temperatures have settled into the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the area under mostly clear skies. Some blow off cirrus may skirt
by to the north towards dawn; but overall skies will remain fairly
clear the rest of the night. Have mainly freshened up the hourly
temperatures and dew points to account for the latest trends in
observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Convection has weakened across southeastern Kentucky, with mostly
clear skies setting in. Expect some patchy dense river valley fog
once again overnight, especially at any locations that saw locally
heavy rainfall. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s once again.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 540 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Freshened up the POPs through early this evening to match better
with the radar trends. Isolated to scattered convection has fired
up once, mainly confined to the Highway 80 and Hal Rogers Parkway
corridors. Expect a gradual diminishment towards dusk, similar to
the previous couple of evenings.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Showers and storms have formed along the Virginia and Tennessee
borders this afternoon in response to an upper level low moving
into the Carolinas and spreading moisture into the area. These
showers and storms are capable of producing breif heavy rainfall
and some lightning but should dissipate shortly after sunset.
Tonight, the upper level ridge will finally start to break down as
a trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes. As such, heights
will lower throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday morning
as the trough axis pushes towards Kentucky.

At the surface, we will see a gradual increase in cloud cover and
shower chances as a cold front makes its way towards Kentucky from
the northwest tomorrow afternoon. The best chance for showers and
storms will be constrained to the Bluegrass region tomorrow
afternoon, as well as along the Virginia border, with the
strongest energy staying to our north and west. The front is
progged to weaken and drop through the area tomorrow night into
Thursday morning, with no real wind shift noted in the models.
Given the unfavorable timing of the fropa, thunderstorm chances
should be limited.

Temperatures will remain mild during the overnight periods with
lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tomorrows high will be
unseasonably warm with highs potentially reaching 90 degrees in
spots, depending on cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The bulk of the extended period looks to be dry and much cooler
than the weather we have been experiencing the past couple of
weeks. A weak cold front will be exiting the area on Thursday. The
limited lift and moisture associated with the front should be just
enough to spark scattered showers and storms across eastern
Kentucky. The precipitation should be exiting the area by late
Thursday afternoon, with the area being rain free by 0Z Friday. A
much cooler and drier air mass will then spill into the region
behind the departed front. We should then see by far the most
pleasant weather of the entire summer Thursday and Friday, with
highs on each day only topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s
with low humidity. A gradual warming trend should then begin over
the weekend, as mostly clear skies and light winds allow strong
surface heating to occur. We should see near normal temperatures
from Saturday onward, with daily maxes in the 80s on tap.
Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night are expected to
fall into the upper 50s for most locations. The rest of the week
should see lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. The first
day of meteorological fall, September 1st, should truly feel like


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

With an area of high pressure in control, VFR conditions are
holding strong across eastern KY. Skies should remain mostly clear
and winds light through much of the night. None of the TAF sites
saw rainfall from earlier today, so kept with only mentioning some
MVFR visibilities at SME and SJS towards dawn. The fog will burn
off between 12 and 14z Wednesday, with scattered cumulus likely
forming by the afternoon in addition to some thicker high level
clouds. Isolated convection will threaten later in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest, and should
continue into the evening. Winds will average 5 kts or less
through the period.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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