Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220253

National Weather Service Jackson KY
953 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 953 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

A convergence zone over the eastern part of the forecast area
strengthened and has produced some pop up showers. Adjusted the
PoPs to account for this. Cold front on track to enter the CWA and
bring increasing clouds and a northerly wind shift. Ingested
current observations, but the forecast looks on track for the
temps and dew points so no adjustments were made.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of
eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level
weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring
broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area.
The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount
of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the
latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight
will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday
are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another
shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in
the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Generally good agreement among model solutions today. We continue to
see a progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Only
feature of real interest for our area will be a fast moving short
wave trough and its associated surface cold frontal boundary which
will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by next
weekend. Models have been fairly consistent in bringing this system
through our area dry, keeping any shower activity to our north. As a
result our sensible weather will remain dry though models do suggest
a shot at some rain just beyond the forecast window. Temperatures
will then fluctuate between brief periods of cooler then warmer
weather. We start out rather cool for Thanksgiving Day, then
moderate a bit by week`s end before dropping briefly again to wrap
out the holiday weekend. Temperatures moderate once again by the end
of the forecast window. Overall temperature will average at or just
below norms for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

VFR conditions will prevail this evening ahead of a dry cold
front arriving from the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into
tonight. Cloud bases will lower overnight, with MVFR ceilings
likely materializing at JKL/SJS through early/mid Wednesday
morning. Some IFR ceilings will also be possible nearer to the
Virginia state line. Winds of 5-10 knots will veer northerly
overnight while diminishing below 5 knots Wednesday afternoon as
clouds lift and mix out.




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