Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261900 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MAINLY
TO ADJUST SKY COVER AND POPS...THOUGH DID ALSO BUMP UP MAX T A
NOTCH AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. THESE CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WHILE AN ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
EARLIER SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH THE COASTAL
SYSTEM DEPARTING...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ON ITS WAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE HRRR...RAP13...AND LATEST NAM12 DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SNOW WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT EACH TIME AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS SEASON WE HAVE SEEN DECENT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
POPS AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WHICH WILL START TO
ENTER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA TOWARD EVENING. ON SATELLITE...
THERE IS A CLEAR PATCH BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THOSE FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE EAST.
HAVE TIMED THESE IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY. READINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER 20S ARE FOUND IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM
THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE GRIDS
WERE UPDATED MAINLY FOR POPS...SKY...AND WX WITH SOME TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO KEEP THE HOURLY TRACES ON TRACK WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THIS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
LIGHT BUT WILL STILL KEEP AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS. THE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE AN EXITING SHIELD OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MESOSCALE BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EXIT THE AREA AS THE MAIN LOW WINDS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL...SOME VISIBILITY
OF A MILE OR LESS HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG WITH A HALF INCH OR
GREATER SNOWFALL WITHIN AN HOUR. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAVIER BANDED
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAS EXITED AS WELL AND SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING THE WSW EARLY
IN A COUPLE HOURS HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THIS AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE FAR AND
FEW IN BETWEEN.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH LIKELY
SQUEEZING OUT ANY MOISTURE LEFT IN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WITH THIS...FLURRIES MAY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAWN HOURS. THE COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...
BETWEEN THE MELTING SNOW...ANY WET SPOTS ON THE ROAD...THE NEW
SNOW COVER...THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...AND ANY THREAT THE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSE...MAY DECIDE TO KEEP AN SPS GOING TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE NUISANCES THAT WILL IMPACT TRAVEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PART OF A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP BROAD SW FLOW AND GIVEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THIS MAY MIX ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THEN WE SEE
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD EAST AND SURFACE HIGH SETUP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE PRECIP MONDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AHEAD OF
WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE WARM FRONT OVER TAKES THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING NE
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW NE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY DETAILS THAT DO NOT MATCH UP PERFECTLY
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS JUNCTURE. ONE OF THESE BEING THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE
CONCERN REMAINS EVEN GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT THIS POINT...AS MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE PRESENTED WITH BROAD SW FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MOISTURE AND AT TIMES SATURATED COLUMN TO BE PRESENT...WITH
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS FROM TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT OR
ABOVE 1 INCH. WHILE THIS WILL BE SEVERAL PERIOD EVENT WOULD STILL
THINK THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO CONCERNS PARTICULARLY
SINCE SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE AREA...BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AVIATION
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT...LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDRESSED THE SNOW WITH A
VCSH DURING THIS TIME AND ALSO WITH PREVAILING MVFR VIS AND IFR
CIGS IN THE BETTER SNOWS ANTICIPATED DURING EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF



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