Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190707

National Weather Service Jackson KY
307 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Valley fog is once again in place early this morning, but has not
been quite as extensive as in past nights. In fact some of the
more typical foggy spots haven`t reported any dense fog yet,
unlike the past few nights. The fog will likely dissipate a bit
faster this morning for this reason.

Another mild day is on tap as we should see a good deal of
sunshine again today. A mid level vort max will work east across
the Ohio river valley today, producing scattered to numerous
showers/storms across western, then central Kentucky. The wave
will begin to dampen as it works east into the ridge axis over the
southeastern states. This combined with decreasing instability and
almost no shear will lead to a rapid weakening as this activity
attempts to move into eastern Kentucky. It looks like activity
should start to move into the area after 4 pm this evening. Hard
to gage how far east activity will make it before fading away, but
will carry some isolated showers into the east before going back
to a dry forecast tonight. If we can clear out behind the
weakening showers, we will stand a decent shot for more dense
valley fog tonight as dewpoints will start off a bit higher going
into the overnight period.

The slow moving mid level trough will be slow to exit to the east
on Wednesday and could spark a few showers or storms in the east
or southeast before it moves away from us by mid to late
afternoon. Again lack of shear will keep activity fairly weak, and
may even be hard to see any thunder with such poor storm
organization expected. Going with persistence on highs for
Wednesday as the mild weather will persist for another day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Long term discussion to follow shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Another complex night of valley fog and unlike the past few
nights, we do have some mid level clouds approaching the area and
could act to limit the fog density tonight. Dewpoints are also
running lower in the east and higher in the west than the past few
nights, so current thinking is the fog will be more suppressed
into the eastern valleys tonight, and perhaps a little more broad,
but not as dense in the west. This will still have potential to
impact the TAF sites with some reductions expected at KSME and
KLOZ. Fog will burn off a bit quicker in the morning with most fog
gone by 9 am. This will allow a return to VFR conditions. A few
widely isolated storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but
confidence in the coverage is not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time.




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