Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040628
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN PRECIP...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO TAPER OFF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO AND FFA WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLOODING TO THE AREA FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CENTROID
CONVECTION TRAINING AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES WEST TO EAST INTO THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL IN AREAS WITH VERY
LOW FFG AND PLACES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINS
LIKE PULASKI AND LAUREL COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOOD AND
AREAL WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75. THE RAINS CONTINUE TO THE EAST BUT ARE WEAKENING OR
RAINING THEMSELVES OUT AS THEY MOVE INTO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN
HIT QUITE SO HARD RECENTLY. EVEN SO...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TRAINING FOR FLOOD ISSUES TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS THE BANDS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY SETTLES
SOUTH. ALSO UPPED THE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE LATE.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BASED ON WIND READINGS ACROSS THE REGION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO RESIDE FROM BETWEEN MOREHEAD AND FLEMINGSBURG...BACK TO THE
EAST TO FRANKFORT AND LOUISVILLE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALLOWED FOR 2500J/KG OF SBCAPE TO
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME 30-35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO LIGHT UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN ALIGNED EAST TO WEST AND
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL STILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION IN THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...FRONT FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTH TAKING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY MAY STILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE MORE HIT OR MISS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE TIMES OF PEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE QUIETER WEATHER AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN PLACES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
UPPER PATTERN INTO ABOUT MID WEEK. THEY ALL AGREE THAT A WEAK
TROUGH WILL START TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF ITS CONSIDERABLE ENERGY WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THIS PROCESS ONLY CLEARING OUT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN WILL BE THANKS TO A ROBUST TROUGH CROSSING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND SWEEPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND ACTUALLY
CLOSED OFF WITH ITS LOW. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN IS WEAKER STILL
THAN THE GFS ALONG WITH BEING SLOWER. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE LOCALLY...THOUGH SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL REMAIN
OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THIS...THE GFS
CONTINUES WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OHIO
VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF ENERGY PASSING OVER KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY.
THE MODELS THEN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING MORE RIDGING TO
END THE WEEK. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SEEMS IN ORDER GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY SEE AN END TO ANY BREAK FROM THE WET
WEATHER WE MAY ENJOY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT THE FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ATTENDANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INTO THE START OF THE WEEK WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED AFTER SUNSET LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING. THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH AT MID LEVELS WILL SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RENEWED HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT LAYS OUT AND LINGERS OVER THE STATE WHILE ANOTHER SFC
WAVE RUNS EAST ALONG IT...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS A WIDE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE
STATE. SHOULD THE ECMWF TURN OUT MORE CORRECT AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME DRYING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS LINGERS THE FRONT OVERHEAD SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
GIVEN THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT FOR LOWS...WITH HUMID DAYS
AND MUGGY NIGHTS.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL
CYCLE EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE IN THE
PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT
TO REFLECT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM
LIFR TO VFR. IN GENERAL THE POORER CONDITIONS WERE IN THE
NORTH...AND THE BETTER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED OVER THE REGION...BUT WERE ON THE DECLINE. MOSTLY IFR
AND MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO MOSTLY MVFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL


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