Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 262000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

A ridge of high pressure will keep eastern Kentucky dry through
late this evening, before an approaching area of low pressure
brings some rain back to the area late tonight. In the meantime,
we can expect middle and high level cloud cover to stream across
the area, bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies to eastern
Kentucky for the next several hours. The cloud bases should
finally begin to lower a bit towards dawn on Monday, ahead of the
approaching weather system. A lack of moisture return should allow
for no more than isolated to scattered showers tonight into early
tomorrow. A few snow showers may mix with the rain late tonight
in our far northern and northeastern counties, where some cold air
will still be in place, but these should not cause any issues.
Tonights lows will likely range from around 30 in our deep eastern
valleys, to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. The colder locations in
our north and east is where a few snow showers may form late
tonight. The rain should begin to steadily increase in coverage
tomorrow night, as the aforementioned weather system finally
begins to move into the area from the southwest. A weak trough of
low pressure passing to our west tonight will be what brings the
initial push of precipitation to the area late tonight through
tomorrow morning.

Temperatures should rebound a bit on Monday, as winds shift more
to the south and southwest and increase in intensity a bit
compared to today. This will also begin a period of moisture
advection off the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee and Ohio
valley regions. Highs on Monday should max out in the mid to upper
50s across the area. The warm air will remain in place Monday
night, as lows in the 40s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

The period will be met with broad southwesterly flow with surface
high pressure parked off to the east. Meanwhile quasi-zonal flow
aloft with perturbations riding through the flow will keep the
period active Monday night into Tuesday night. There is some
instability Tuesday into Tuesday night that will lead to slight
chances of thunder. That said there will be a period of transition
Tuesday night that will lead to little to no POPs particularly in
the southeast. This period of transition will occur, as an upper
level wave moves into the central plains and low pressure deepens
across the Great Lakes.

A trailing cold front and height falls, as upper wave progresses
east will lead to best chances of POPs late Tuesday into
Wednesday. There are some timing differences, with GFS being the
faster solution and digs the trough a bit more than other
solutions. The ensemble mean seems to better align with slower
solutions seen in the long term guidance, and therefore think the
overall model blend POPs look good at this point. Given the
reasonable consistency did go ahead and keep the model blends CAT
POPs. We stand to get a good soaking rain, but still a bit
uncertain on exact axis of heavier precipitation. Right now total
amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches would be quite possible throughout the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. The severe chances
look relatively low with SPC MARS and CIPS analog keeping better
chances to the west and southwest. This lines up better with the
SPC climatology as well. However given deep layer shear and at
least some meager instability some of these storms could be
strong.

Cold air mass will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday,
but this will primarily bring us back closer to normal values for
this time of year. These near to a little below normal
temperatures will remain through Friday. A clipper does drop into
the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday and perhaps a few
sprinkles/flurries or rain/snow showers pass across NE portions of
the CWA. Right now feel the better forcing will reside NE of the
CWA and therefore low confidence on any measurable precip in KY.
Canadian high pressure quickly pushes southeast late Friday into
Friday night leading to a decent night for ridge/valley splits.
Right now with some uncertainty will go 5 degrees, but the COOP
MOSGUIDE suggests possibility of a larger split. Temperatures are
set to warm some as high shifts east Saturday, but air mass will
still keep low to mid 50s in place. Given upper level ridging we
should also remain dry to round out the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

The center of a ridge of surface high pressure is nearing the
region. Just some high clouds are expected to pass by from time
to time today increasing during the 20Z to 0Z period as an upper
level disturbance passes. Overall, VFR is expected through the
period, though mid level clouds are expected to arrive and spread
south and east between 0Z and 6Z should move into the area by the
end of the period with moistening from the top down ahead of
another disturbance leading to a few low clouds and possibly a few
stray showers across the far west and northwest late. Winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR


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