Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW





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