Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 111845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND
ALSO THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. EVEN SO...A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE CHILLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES DRYING UP AND ALSO
TO INCORPORATE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

INGESTED THE LATEST HOURLY OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE TEMPERATURE RELATED
ELEMENTS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING IN
LIEU OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDOR MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MERCURY PLUMMETS INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MOST LIKELY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY
SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS
FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY
BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING
HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST.

THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY
RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT
OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN
CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY
LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

STILL SOME LINGERING SC CLOUDS AROUND AT THE LOW END OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR CIGS TO THEN LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z FOR MOST
PLACES WITH VSBY DOWN TO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
PEAKING IN THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. HAVE HIT THIS HARDEST IN THE
GRIDS AND ALSO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...SOME VCSH SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE PERIOD...
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF


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