Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 180616
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CIRRUS IS EXTENSIVE OVER THE AREA AND HAVE RAISED SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF SLOWER THAN WAS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
UPWARD A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUITE THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE/HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL






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