Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281512
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1112 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Models are in good agreement for this afternoon and evening
regarding precip associated with the cold front and upper low.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually progress into the
JKL forecast area from the NW, but probably only make it into the
far NW part of the area before nightfall. Some further progress is
expected after nightfall, but loss of heating should lead to a
gradual decline in activity. Have updated the forecast for this
timing.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Freshened up the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs. Sent
updates to NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

The large upper level low continues to gradually sink southward
from the Great Lakes region towards the Ohio Valley this morning.
The process of this low reaching Kentucky has actually slowed down
a bit in models, delaying further the increase in sky cover and
rain chances this afternoon. In fact, high-res models bring
rain/storms into the far northern counties closer to 21Z. The
models then develop a convective linear feature along the cold
front as it pushes further into our area closer to 00Z Thursday.
The best chances for thunderstorms, including some small hail and
strong winds (with about 900 DCAPE) will likely be contained to
the far northern counties during the late afternoon period. But
since the frontal passage will take place mostly outside of peak
heating late this evening, thunderstorms shouldn`t pose much of a
threat for the majority of the area. Shower chances will then
continue through Thursday evening as the upper low continues
moving over Kentucky. Thunderstorms will again be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening with ample upper level dynamics and
modest instability in the area.

Due to clear skies and dry air in place, lows this morning are
expected to dip into the upper 30s in the deepest valleys and in
the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Even with the dry air in place,
some fog is possible in the deeper valleys and near bodies of
water this morning. Afternoon temperatures should be near average
today, in the mid 70s. But this will depend on how quickly the
cloud cover increases this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight
will be closer to normal (around 50 degrees) with overcast skies
and showers in the area. Thursday will be on the chilly side with
highs only in the low and mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

A blocky long wave pattern will be in full swing across the CONUS
through the weekend. Starting out, an upper level low will be
entrenched across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with ridging
across the Plains, while troughing works in across the West Coast.
The models have maintained fairly good continuity, gradually
shunting the upper level low back to the north towards the Great
Lakes, as the ridge slowly slides east towards the Mississippi
Valley, and troughing becomes more established across the western
CONUS. Model differences in timing and amplitude become more
apparent by early next week, as the trough swings east into the
Plains.

Cool conditions, along with a threat of some showers, and perhaps
a few storms during peak heating, will continue across eastern
Kentucky to end the work week. Depending upon the exact position
of the cutoff low and an associated dry slot, Friday may be
drier than currently forecast, as depicted by the latest ECMWF.
The last of the showers will end by late Saturday afternoon, as
the low pulls far enough away, and heights recover. Dry weather
will ensue Saturday night and looks to last into early and
perhaps middle of next week, depending on the amplitude of the
ridge. Temperatures will gradually warm up across eastern
Kentucky through early next week, with a few 80s for highs
returning by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

VFR conditions should remain in play through the first part of the
day today with any overnight fog dissipating around 12Z. Cloud
cover will be on the increase from the northwest today as an
upper level low and associated cold front approach eastern
Kentucky. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z, gradually spreading
into the area from the northwest. Ceilings will begin to develop
through the afternoon, and then gradually lower to near minimums
by the end of the TAF forecast period. Fog may also be a factor
late tonight depending on shower activity. Winds will be gusty
this afternoon ahead of the front, up to 20 knots, then gradually
diminish overnight to around 5 knots or less.

 &&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM



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