Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240702
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

The weather of eastern Kentucky will dominated by a ridge of high
pressure today and tonight. This weather system will bring well
above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, light winds, and
dry conditions to the area through late tonight. The warm weather
will continue on Wednesday. Low and middle level cloud cover will
spread across the region late tonight and tomorrow, as an area of
low pressure moves out of the south central plains and toward the
western Great Lakes region. Warm front associated with this system
will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm formation from
around dawn tomorrow and through the day on Wednesday. At this
time it appears that lift and moisture in the vicinity of this
boundary will be limited, so we can expect only isolated to
scattered showers and storms in eastern Kentucky during the day on
Wednesday.

Temperatures during the period will be well above normal, with
highs topping out the 80s both today and Wednesday. Tonights lows
will also be quite mild, with minimum readings in the mid to upper
50s expected for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

As the upper level low scoots off to our east, ridging will build
into the region at the start of the long term. Flow will then turn
to the southwest, ushering in higher moisture and warmer
temperatures. Ridging is expected to stay parked over the region
through the work week, shift to the east just a bit for the
weekend as a shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes, then get
reinforced back into the Tennessee Valley to end the month of May.
There will be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
every afternoon, but any source of low level forcing in terms of a
front will likely hang up to our northwest. There is the potential
for more widespread shower activity over the weekend if the upper
level low feature nudges closer to East Kentucky (closer to the
GFS20 solution). However, decided to keep it generalized with
slight to chance pops in the afternoons each day to account for
model differences in timing and coverage of precipitation.

Temperatures will average well above normal each day with highs
in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR



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