Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231917
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
317 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

The surface high continues to shift off shore of the mid Atlantic
states with southerly return flow kicking into gear across
Kentucky. A mid level warm front is working eastward across
central Kentucky. A band of precipitation associated with this
front had been working east as well. However, strong low level dry
air remains in place across central and eastern Kentucky as south
to southeast flow has kept the dry air in place today. This will
continue to erode the precipitation as it moves eastward this
evening. Hi-res models continue to support this eroding band of
rain scenario. A few sprinkles could be seen in Wayne county, but
not likely to see much elsewhere. We will see a gradual increase
in cloud cover this evening and overnight as the mid level clouds
associated with the front push east. Regardless of the cloud
cover, should still see a modest ridge/valley split tonight given
the dry air over the area. This will allow lows in the eastern
valleys to dip into the mid to upper 30s. Ridges and locations
farther west will stay in the 40s tonight. With the 30s in the
east, some frost will be possible.

By tomorrow, warm front will be off to the north with southerly
winds continuing to pump in mild air. This will send highs to
around 70 by the afternoon. Cloud cover is still a bit in question
as we will be solidly in the warm sector behind the warm front, so
we may see a bit more sunshine in the blended model solution would
otherwise indicate. Will still see a bit of a ridge/valley split
Friday night, but may be more in the extreme valleys as the
gradient will continue to increase. Overall, it should be a milder
night with lows in the 40s (extreme valleys) and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Long term discussion will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Despite high pressure shifting east, VFR conditions will dominate
the next 24 to 36 hours. The impact of the high shifting east will
be slightly stronger winds, generally 5 to 10 mph this afternoon,
then closer to 10 mph for Friday afternoon. Winds should diminish
during the overnight hours as the inversion should be able to set
up.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ


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