Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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049
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The forecast was updated to remove stale afternoon wording from
the text product and to freshen up the hourly grids with the
latest observational data.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Updated the zone forecast text product to remove mention of fog
and morning wording. Otherwise, the forecast was in good shape.
Also ingested the most recent surface obs to establish new trends
in the hourly forecast data. The Hazardous Weather Outlook was
also updated to remove mention of early morning dense fog.

UPDATE Issued at 724 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Skies have cleared out over most of the area early this morning.
Have updated the grids for this development, as well as to blend
other obs into the forecast. Will still look for more clouds to
form during the day, especially after a chance for some heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

An upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken, and a
trough will begin to drop southeast over the Great Lakes during
the period. Features over the local area will be weak/benign. A
low level humid air mass will remain in place today, and with
daytime heating, some thunderstorms won`t be ruled out. However,
forecast soundings show drying aloft, and without upper level
support, entrainment of drier air will be more of a limiting
factor on convective currents as compared to Sunday. Have not used
anything higher than a 20% POP in the JKL forecast area for today,
and even that may be generous. Both the GFS MOS and NAM MOS have
sub-20% POPs. Any convective precip will die this evening. Drier
low level air should start advecting into the area tonight and
Tuesday in the flow around high pressure passing by to our north.
That being the case, have only used a silent 10% POP for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

A pattern change will be underway by Tuesday night as an upper level
ridge shifts to our west and is replaced by a longwave trough by
late in the week. At the surface, a cold front will drop through the
region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This late arrival
time and limited instability should keep the frontal passage
relatively dry, with only a small chance of a shower or storm. A
cooler and much drier airmass will then advect in as high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes into the Northeast from Thursday
afternoon into the weekend. As a result, temperatures will fall from
the upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the
front on Friday with much more comfortable humidity levels as well.
Temperatures will moderate back into the mid 80s by Sunday and
dewpoints will climb back into the 60s as the surface high shifts to
our east and our flow becomes more southerly. It looks dry for the
Labor Day weekend as of now with any tropical mischief moving by
well to our south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

A generally quiet period is in store, with generally VFR
conditions through out the period. There may be brief periods of
MVFR CIGs at any given airport this afternoon, but those should
occur so infrequently as to not warrant mentioning in the TAFs. We
might see an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but nothing
that would be widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Fog
will affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, mainly in the larger/deeper
valleys and near bodies of water. The fog should be gone by 10 am
on Tuesday, with VFR conditions expected after that.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR



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