Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221042
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
642 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

Given latest obs showing cooling temperatures and winds veering to
the west and northwest suggest the cold front has made it through
most the region this morning. Given the radar trends could not
see any reason having slight POPs this morning and therefore
cleared that out. The fog is probably limited but kept some patchy
fog for an hour for the valleys. Overall forecast is on track at
this time but did update with latest obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now
bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW
winds and high pressure to build east. Latest SAT data does show
some high cloud streaming in and therefore did keep a few more
clouds in the forecast today from what guidance was suggesting. Do
think this will be mostly high clouds at or around 20 KFT. Did
keep a small area of slight POPs this morning, otherwise based on
radar trends most will remain dry this morning as drier air
advances east.

Tonight an upper level shortwave across the lower MS River Valley
and 850mb jet aid in cyclogenesis across Lower MS and AL. The
surface low will deepen as it ejects into the Carolinas. There
remains some uncertainty in how much or any moisture can make it
north into the region. Perhaps the biggest issue will be cloud
cover and how much. This will have implications on temperatures
and therefore held back more on temp splits in the east and
southeast. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland
valley locales. Do introduce slight POPs in the far SE toward
dawn, but uncertain if this will in fact play out as mentioned
above.

This complication continues Tuesday, as a surface low tracks NE.
The ECMWF and some CAMs suggest showers and perhaps a few storms
will be possible in the far SE. Given that could not go completely
dry, but do think that best shot of seeing anything will remain
in the far SE toward VA. This as convection to the south and east
will likely cutoff much of the moisture into eastern KY.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

An amplified and unsettled pattern will remain in place across
the CONUS through the long term. A deep long wave trough will be
in place across the middle of the country through mid-week. This
will shift to the Eastern Seaboard towards the end of the work
week, with some transient short wave ridging to move through the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Another trough, of lower amplitude
than its predecessor, will then move in for the weekend. There is
decent model agreement through the middle of next week, before
some evolution and timing differences crop up for the latter half
of the forecast period.

Periods of showers as well as below normal temperatures will be
the main weather story across eastern Kentucky through Thursday
night, as the deep trough gradually swings through the region.
The best forcing coupled with some instability will culminate on
Wednesday, bringing the threat of some thunder. Lowering freezing
levels may allow for some of the showers/storms to contain small
hail/graupel at times.

Dry weather will temporarily return across eastern Kentucky by
Friday, as the aforementioned transient short wave ridging moves
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Precip chances then ramp up
once again from Friday night through the rest of the weekend,
with another trough approaching from the west, with a frontal
boundary likely nearby at the surface.

The coolest highs will arrive on Thursday, with readings likely in
the mid 60s. Highs will then return to the upper 70s on Friday,
and then around the 80 degree mark for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of
eastern Kentucky this hour. The more robust convection is nearer
to the Cumberland Valley region. These will slide east and bring
brief drops in CIGs and VIS over the next hour. Overall most
sites will see drying conditions and improving CIGs and VIS
through the period. The caveat may be the deeper valley locales
where fog could form in areas that saw more rain today. Otherwise
a surface high to our west will build in behind cold front moving
across the area to lead to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
TAF period. Winds will remain light through the period and will
veer to the west overtime behind the front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ



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