Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190002

National Weather Service Jackson KY
802 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Issued at 755 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

Forecast is on track so far this evening. Loaded in the latest
observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with
current conditions. Still a few isolated showers ongoing across
the far western portion of the CWA. Once these have tapered off,
will update the grids to remove the pre-first period rain
mention and sent out a new forecast package. All changes have been
published and sent to NDFD/web.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

20z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place over eastern
Kentucky though it is not effective in suppressing a few showers
now popping up over western parts of the Cumberland Valley. On
satellite, most of the area is seeing just small patches of cu,
but through the breadth of the Cumberland Valley, where the
showers are active, the clouds are more extensive and robust.
Plenty of sunshine for most of the area have sent temperatures up
into the lower 80s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding in the low
to mid 60s with the winds still light and variable.

The models are in fairly good agreement with the recent changes in
the mid and upper air patterns through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all now are a bit more hearty with the energy
that initially drifts through the weakening ridge this evening and
then even more so on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This latter
batch will lower heights and pool like a small trough between
periods of still rather weak ridging into Wednesday morning. Given
this agreement have favored a blended model solution along with a
good portion of specifics from the higher resolution HRRR and
NAM12 and a healthy dose of persistence - especially tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

Sensible weather will feature some widely scattered showers
through early evening - mainly over the western parts of the CWA.
a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, as well. Otherwise, it
will be more of the same with clearing skies this evening and
cooling conditions leading to areas of fog - locally dense in the
river valleys for Tuesday morning. Look for the fog to dissipate a
bit quicker Tuesday morning as clouds move in from the west ahead
of a weak front. This will likely result in showers and
thunderstorms developing by early afternoon favoring the western
portion of the forecast area. The convection will die out in the
evening setting the stage for more fog development that night into
Wednesday morning - though limited by more clouds being around
through the night.

The CONSShort and ShortBlend were used as the starting point of
all the grids. Did make some adjustments to the temperature ones
each night based on terrain in anticipation of small to moderate
ridge/valley splits. As for PoPs, did tweak them for the diurnal
cycle peaking late afternoon and diminishing after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

An upper level ridge will amplify over the Ohio Valley through
the period continuing the unseasonably warm weather pattern for
our area. A weak upper trough trapped between Hurricane Jose and
the building ridge over the Mississippi Valley will cause the
potential for a few showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
That potential shifts to our southwest and withers as the upper
trough dissolves and surface high pressure builds southward
ensuring a dry weekend for our region.

Temperatures are expected to consistently top out in the low to
mid 80s each day through the period. Overnight lows are forecast
in the low 60s, then dropping into the upper 50s over the weekend
as drier air filters in.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

After another day and evening of VFR conditions, fog is expected
again tonight. Development will commence after 03z, starting in
the valleys, not likely impacting TAFS until after 06z. Fog
should be similar to the past several nights and be confined
mainly to the valleys, but still creep up into a couple of the
airport sites for a time, most likely near dawn. Have used a tempo
in a few of the TAFs for this concern. VFR conditions will then
re-establish themselves for the first part of the day tomorrow
after the fog dissipates in the morning. For the afternoon,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region from
the west, along with generally SCT CIGS between 3 and 4k ft.
Included VCTS in TAF sites between 18 and 20Z, though exact
timing/location and impacts of these storms is still low
confidence. Light winds are expected through the period.




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