Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 150008
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
708 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

Extensive cloud cover has overspread eastern Kentucky, but
precipitation and lower decks continue to remain confined to near
and along the Tennessee/Virginia borders. Expecting this band of
precipitation to push north this evening and for at least a
portion of tonight as a shortwave trough and associated surface
low progress toward the Tennessee Valley. The northern extent of
this precipitation will be determined by how quickly and far
south a Great Lakes trough evolves. Rainfall amounts will be
greatest in southeast Kentucky, with locales up through Mountain
Parkway and south of Interstate 64 possibly seeing at least a
trace of rain. As colder air infiltrates tonight behind a cold
front, light snow may mix in at times. Any accumulations will be
confined to the higher terrain of far southeast Kentucky, where up
to 2 inches of snow will be possible on top of Black Mountain.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 401 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

A band of precipitation was situated along the KY TN border late
Tuesday. It was associated with a storm system over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Models are in reasonable agreement for the
evolution of this system. The surface low will continue to slowly
deepen as it moves ENE, passing to our south (through GA)
Wednesday morning. With its approach, precipitation is expected to
creep back north again tonight, likely reaching as far as Pulaski
County and southern Pike County. Temperatures will be warm enough
for mainly rain. However, high elevations near the VA border can
expect a change to snow during the night. Best estimates at this
point are that elevations above about 3K feet will pick up an inch
or two of accumulation, with a potential for a bit more atop Black
Mountain. A cold front will move southeast through the area
overnight and early Wednesday morning. Its passage coincides with
the departure of the storm system, and precip exiting. Cold air
advection then persists into Wednesday night. Forecast soundings
do not look particularly favorable for snow showers this time
around, with moisture in the low level mixed layer being shallow
and potentially not reaching the -10C level.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

After a brief cool down for Thursday, strong mid/upper level ridging
will develop over the eastern half of the country by week`s end,
setting up a warming trend into the upcoming weekend. This will send
another surge of spring-like temperatures into the region with well
above normal temperatures.  A weak shortwave trough will traverse
east across the area late Saturday/Saturday night and could provide
a few showers for the area.  However, this activity should remain
fairly sparse as forcing and moisture are fairly weak with this
system.  High pressure will build back in for Sunday and allow even
warmer conditions to spread into the region for early next week as
southerly flow on the backside of the ridge really pumps the mild
air into the region.  We could be pushing 70 by Monday and Tuesday
of next week.  Given the extended period of warmth, we may start to
see some vegetation starting to bud out by this time next week.
Overall model trends continue to support this above normal
temperatures to continue well into next week, with no signs of any
significant surge of cold air expected for some time.  It does
appear the next chance of rain could arrive by the middle of next
week, but models continue to slow down and weaken this potential
system.  Thus, it looks like the mainly dry weather will last well
into next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

Current VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR levels as ceilings
lower this evening and tonight ahead of a cold front and southern
stream disturbance. LOZ/SME stand the best chance for seeing light
rain and possibly a brief degrade to IFR ceilings at their
respective terminals, with JKL/SJS standing a lesser chance of
rain later on tonight. Lowering visibilities should remain
confined to far southeast Kentucky, particularly higher elevations
near 2,000 to 3,000 feet where rain is expected to transition to
light snow. Ceilings should return to VFR criteria by mid
Wednesday morning as drier air pushes into eastern Kentucky. Winds
will veer from southwest this evening to northwest overnight into
Wednesday while generally remaining near 5-10 knots, while a few
brief higher gusts may occur until the pressure gradient relaxes
behind the front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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