Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 152003

National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018

A cold front over the northern Ohio river valley will slowly push
southward into tonight with a passage across eastern Kentucky late
Friday morning through the afternoon. The gradient has tightened
up to the south of this front with gusty southwest winds
continuing this afternoon. While winds have decreased ever so
slightly from earlier readings, still opting to continue with the
lake wind advisory through the evening as wind could pick back up
as the front approaches.

Rain is expected to spread in from the north along the front after
05z tonight, with a few isolated or scattered showers possibility
developing out ahead of this more widespread activity. The
widespread rain will push on through late tonight through Friday
morning before slowly exiting from the north to south Friday
afternoon. Rain chances a certainty, so will maintain the high
rain chances. In fact, upwards of an inch of rainfall could be
seen along and north of I-64 with that area located in an area of
better forcing with the shortwave energy aloft. Rainfall amounts
will then trail off as the front pushes south and shortwave energy
departs by Friday morning. Rainfall amounts in the south may
struggle to reach a half an inch. With this said, outside of some
ponding on roadways, only some minor bumps on area creeks and
streams are expected, so no plans for a flood watch at this time.
Temperatures will take a quick tumble Friday afternoon as cold
advection kicks in behind the cold front.

Friday night is shaping up to be dry as the front exits off to the
south and colder air briefly returns for the overnight period.
The cold advection could push our low temperatures down into the
low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018

Long term discussion will be issued shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Strong southwest winds will be the main aviation concern into
tonight with wind gusts up to 30 knots expected. MVFR cigs will
also continue through the afternoon before lower to near IFR late
tonight as a cold front pushes through tonight. Widespread rain is
expected with the front tonight as well, which will generate some
fog concerns by dawn on Friday. The rain will likely persist
through the end of the TAF forecast period along with the lower
ceilings. Finally a wind shift to the northwest will be seen late
tonight as the front pushes through.


Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052-



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