482
FXUS63 KJKL 152010
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through this
  evening. After a lull on Thursday, the shower and thunderstorm
  chances return to close out the week.

- After below normal temperatures today, near normal to slightly
  above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist across the
area through early this evening, before steadily tapering off after
dark. The last bits of rain should be exiting to our east late this
evening. A couple of counties in our far east may see isolated
showers and storms from time to time on Thursday, especially in the
late morning to early afternoon time frame, as moisture wraps around
the back side of a departing upper level low pressure system. It is
this low that will continue to bring rain to parts of the area
through late this evening before it moves off to our east overnight.
Cloud cover will remain in place through tonight, before finally
thinning out on Thursday. We should see partly cloudy skies on
Wednesday, which should allow temperatures to warm several degrees
higher than today, yielding highs in the upper 70s for most
locations around eastern Kentucky. A few spots may even reach 80.

Another area of low pressure will approach from the west late
Thursday night, and will cause and increase in clouds late Thursday
night into early Friday morning. However, we should still see a long
enough period of mostly clear skies to allow for small ridge valley
temperature split across the area. Nothing drastic, but the
differences will likely show up in obs around the area by Friday
morning. Most of the models area keeping precipitation out of our
area until early to mid-morning Friday. That being said, based on
current trends, decided to hold off on introducing precip to our
western counties before 12Z Friday. Winds should be light and
variable through out the period. We are expecting no weather
concerns in the short term. Keep in mind that any thunderstorm could
produce cloud to ground lighting at any time along with locally
heavy rainfall, so be on the look out if out and about while storms
are around this afternoon and this evening and go indoors if you
hear thunder. If you can hear thunder, you`re close enough to the
parent storm to be hit by a lightning strike.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

Models are indicating an upper level split flow expected across the
CONUS at the start of the period, with the southern portion of the
flow having troughiness over the south central CONUS along with an
embedded upper low. While there is agreement for the regime to shift
east with time, there is not good agreement on how quickly it
happens and where the upper low is positioned as it happens. That
being the case, a model blend will wash out details, but that is the
best that can be done at this point. In the lower levels, initial
flow north off the gulf will allow for plenty of moisture
availability for the advancing upper level trough/low. However,
there is also uncertainty regarding the track/position of any
surface low associated with the upper level low. The advancing upper
level system will take advantage of moisture availability and
produce showers and thunderstorms for our area at times, but only
broad brushing can be done for the POP at this point due to
uncertainties. It does appear that by Sunday night there should be
little if any precip left in our area as whatever semblance of
the system that exists departs. A decreasing POP trend will be
used for Saturday night and Sunday leading into a dry forecast for
Sunday night.

Ridging at the surface and aloft then transitions east over the
region Sunday night through Monday night, with little if any
chance for rain. Beyond this, a shortwave trough aloft is expected
to approach and pass over Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the
bulk of the wave to our north. This supports a surface cold front
which both the GFS and ECMWF pass through our area on Wednesday.
Only light precip is generated locally in the models, with the
best upper level support weakening and shifting to our north as
the system goes by. Won`t carry anything more than chance POP for
Tuesday night and Wednesday at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

A challenging TAF forecast in store for today, as shower and
storm coverage has been difficult to pin down. That being said,
even though precip chance in general have been lowered somewhat,
with low pressure in place overhead, and with plenty of moisture
to work, we should still see at least scattered showers and storms
around the area for the remainder of daylight hours. The showers
and storms could become widespread for brief periods late this
afternoon, between 19 and 22Z, before tapering off quickly after
sunset. We will see VFR conditions where rain does not occur
today, but any location that experiences a shower or storm could
see MVFR or IFR conditions for breif periods. Fog could also be an
issue late tonight into early Thursday morning, as moisture from
today rain along with some breaks in the clouds and light winds,
could allow for widespread fog to occur. Some locations may even
experience dense fog at times where more rain has fallen. As for
the TAF sites, decided to go with MVFR to IFR conditions due to
fog between 8 and 11Z Thursday, although this could vary depending
on which TAF sites receive the most rain and see the most breaks
in cloud cover overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR