Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 121900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MAY COME
BACK INTO PLAY AS A WAVE FORMS OF THE FRONT AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS BEING INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SOME
OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE PRECIPITATION EXTEND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE NAM AND GFS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND THE NAM FOR THE ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND PUT
SOME SPRINKLES IN ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. ALSO EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KY AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. A
FRONTAL ZONE...HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE REGION ON DAYS
PREVIOUS...WILL NOW BE FOUND PARKED /STATIONARY/ JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE...NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...PRECIP ALONG
THIS FRONT WILL EXPAND...POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG KY/S TN/VA BORDER. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO THEN
RECEDE AGAIN TO OUR SW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT EVENING AND
RETURN AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND UPPER
GREAT LAKE REGION DURING THE DAY...THEN PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE...WITH ALL MODELS
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE...AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AS WELL AS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS 6Z TUESDAY. THE GEM AND THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FRONT...BREAKING UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
OUR AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS...WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUD COVER SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS A BIT
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN HERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER....A STRONGER CLOSED
LOW MAY DEVELOP ALOFT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO KY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL PULL COLD W/NW WINDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MID AND UPPER 70S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION. AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TAF STATION WILL BE MAINLY IFR OR LOWER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
AS A FRONTAL WAVE STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ





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