Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251111
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FINALLY...A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKING CONTROL FROM THE EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...BUT THE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND THE SW COUNTIES IN THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
PINPOINT FOR DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AND STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY...KEPT POPS AT THE LOW END OF SLIGHT...AND ONLY
OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...SIMILAR TO THAT OF
YESTERDAY. THOUGH MODELS DO SEEM TO ALL AGREE ON QPF OCCURRING...AS
WELL AS AGREEING ON THE GENERAL LOCATION ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TN...THIS MAY BE YET ANOTHER DAY
WHERE GOOD AGREEMENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN EVENTS WILL
TRANSPIRE. HOWEVER...WOULD RATHER INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END
POPS IN CASE SOMETHING IS TO DEVELOP...RATHER THAN HAVE A SHOWER OR
STORM POP UP WITH NO COVERAGE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SHOULD
PREVAIL...WITH ONLY SOME SCT VFR CU EXPECTED.

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES THE OPPORTUNITY TO RADIATIONALLY COOL DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION /GENERALLY/...SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION ONCE MORE TOMORROW WITH CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PARK
ITSELF WELL TO OUR NW...EXTENDING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO JAMES BAY
IN CANADA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY AND POSE LITTLE THREAT TO EASTERN KY OTHER THAN TO KEEP THE
WARMER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
ONCE MORE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE QUITE GORGEOUS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER AIR. THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...ALL THE FRONTS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE STILL VERY MUCH IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FOURCORNERS AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO SLIP SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH IS SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS
HANDLED THAT COULD HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF RAPIDLY THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THE FORECAST...TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONTS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
DEEP VALLEY FOG. SO FAR THIS FOG HAS POSED LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE
TAF SITES...AND SHOULD BE BURNING OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
CLUSTER OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED OVER SOMERSET. DON/T
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLEARER
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF
CONCERN...HOWEVER...IF THESE CLOUDS WILL END UP AFFECTING KLOZ AS
WELL OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TODAY WITH MID LEVEL DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSME AND KLOZ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. DEEP VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THIS MORNING...SHOULD POSE LITTLE
THREAT TO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





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