Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE LOWER AT NIGHT AND HIGHER DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO THE FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TODAY. THINKING WAS THE LOZ AND SME WOULD SEE THE MOST
CLEARING AND BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG AND MVFR. JKL AND SJS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AND MVFR CIGS AS THEY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT VFR AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ






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