Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN ONE WITH ITS WELL DEVELOPED PCPN SHIELD THAT WILL
GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
TONIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING INTO THE
MID 30S WHILE THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS MOST
PLACES...THOUGH LOW 20S ARE FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DAMPENING BUT STILL
RATHER ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS IS TRAILED BY A ANOTHER...MORE BROAD...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF KENTUCKY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THESE STREAMS
REMAIN SEPARATE ENOUGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST THAT THEIR SFC REFLECTIONS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN ON THE
WEAKER SIDE OF POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT...AND
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...HAVE FOLLOWED THOSE
LATTER MODELS MOST CLOSELY FOR WX SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE EXPANDING NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SOUTHERN LOW STRAFING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SNOW ARRIVING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE EVENING. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN
BRIEFLY HEAVY WHEN IT SETS IN. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM12 DID PUSH SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF AND OMEGA A
TAD FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SO WITH THIS AGREEMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES TO THE INITIAL ADVISORY FROM MARTIN WEST TO
OWSLEY COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE MOST PLACES IN THE
ADVISORY...A BIT LESS IN THE WEST AND NORTH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...PARTICULARLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2500 FEET.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE END FOR A TIME OVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THAT
NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A SFC ARCTIC FRONT. SIMILAR TO SOME OF
THE FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER...WE EXPECT SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND IT INTO THE NIGHT THURSDAY WITH BEST
LIFT AND FORCING TAKING PLACE IN THE EVENING. UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS SET UP...BUT
MOST PLACES WILL SEE JUST A DUSTING OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES WILL SEND READINGS INTO THE TEENS MOST PLACES BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

USED THE CONSSHORT TO JUMP START THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS. AFTER THAT
FAVORED THE SUPERBLEND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR A STARTING POINT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BAJA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA
IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP STORM TRACKS SOMEWHAT CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL IT APPEARS WE WILL BE GETTING INTO A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THE APPROACH OF EARLY SPRING.
ACTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER...PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS ETC. WILL
DEPEND MORE ON EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ALONG WITH THE WATER CONTENT
PRESENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA...POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED SHOULD MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION WE
REALIZE THROUGH THE PERIOD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOOT OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AREA IN RAPID FIRE FASHION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SECOND
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE THIRD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SFC LOWS TO TRACK
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTORS OF
THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND EACH
PASSING SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR THE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF EACH
NEW ROUND OF WEATHER. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEXT TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER A VERY COLD START FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS MORE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THOUGH OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGH CIGS TO DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET BY 02Z IN
THE SOUTH AND BY 04Z NORTH WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS
ANTICIPATED TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST AND HARDEST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF
OF MAIN TAF SITES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF


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