Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222357 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
757 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Surface high pressure continues to gradually relax across the
area; however, upper level ridging is maintaining control across
most of the mid and lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures are
running a few degrees warmer compared to last night at this time.
Dew points are also up in places, while similar in others compared
to yesterday evening. Some thin cirrus will also attempt to move
in from the northwest after midnight. As such, would expect a
general 1 to 3 degree bump up in the Friday morning lows compared
to this morning. The forecast is on track and merely fine-tuned
some of the low temperatures and diurnal drop off over the next
few hours. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Surface high pressure to our northeast and upper level ridging
extending from the southern plains northeast into the OH valley
will continue to control our local weather. More cumulus clouds
developed this afternoon than yesterday, especially over the
southeast part of the forecast area. These will dissipate this
evening leading to a clear night across the area once again.

With no change in air mass and similar temperatures and dewpoints
in place this afternoon, persistence is the best starting point
for the overnight low temperature forecast. With a little more
drying each day, the river/stream valley fog over the past couple
of nights has become less widespread. Will still carry some dense
fog in the forecast for late tonight, but will designate it as
patchy.

Fair dry weather will continue on Friday and Friday night, with
diurnal temperature ranges similar to what we`ve been
experiencing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Models remain consistent with the idea of a strong upper level
ridge of high pressure maintaining dry weather with unseasonably
warm daytime temperatures through the upcoming weekend. I
continued to bump up highs from the raw Super Blend guidance each
day as we should flirt with 90 Saturday through Monday. Low
dewpoints will keep things relatively comfortable though,
especially at night.

The forecast for next week remains low confidence as models
continue to show marked differences in how they handle the break
down of the upper ridge and characteristics of the subsequent
upper trough that is likely to move eastward to take its place. A
surface cold front should pass through the region early next week,
but again timing differences are huge. Also, the 22/12z ECMWF
brings the front through largely dry now as the sponsoring upper
level trough splits leaving a lot of energy behind to settle in
over the southwest CONUS. The 22/12z GFS is slower and wetter
while the 22/12z CMC keeps the front well to our west through Wed
morning. So...will again side fairly close with the Super Blend
guidance which offers a good compromise for sensible weather
details. This will mean increasing clouds on Monday with a low
chance of showers/storms from late Monday through the day on
Wednesday. I did reduce PoPs a bit from the raw Super Blend,
hedging toward the dry ECMWF. Dry and much cooler weather is
anticipated by Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep mostly clear skies
and VFR conditions in place across eastern Kentucky through the
period and well beyond. Some IFR or worse fog will be seen along
the deeper river valleys between 07 and 13z; however, expect the
TAF sites to steer clear of this once again. Winds will be light
and variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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