Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190711
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW/KAS
AVIATION...HAL






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