Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222000
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

19z SFC analysis shows low pressure just off to the east of
Kentucky with high pressure building in from the west. This high
is bringing some drier air to eastern Kentucky, but not quick
enough to prevent the formation of instability CU and some light
showers in the far east. Thunder has developed further east in
West Virginia with some healthier showers. The latest near term
models still predict some convective development in the far east
through the first part of the evening. Plenty of sunshine at the
start of the day, until the CU developed, helped send
temperatures into the low and mid 70s across the area this
afternoon. Dewpoints mixed down into the low to mid 40s most
places, as well. This deep mixing is allowing some gustiness to
develop with the northwest to north winds over the western parts
of the CWA where gusts are reaching to between 15 and 20 mph.
Elsewhere, northwest winds of around 10 mph are common.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all pivot the eastern trough
southeast and off the coast of North Carolina by midday Monday.
This now closed low then lifts north along the coast into Tuesday
morning while heights rebound for Kentucky and even some ridging
works into the western parts of the Ohio Valley. Given the model
agreement have favored a general blend for weather details with a
lean toward the HRRR and NAM12 this evening and on through the
night.

Sensible weather will feature a small chance for scattered showers
and stray thunderstorms over the far eastern tip of Kentucky
through sunset. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear overnight
facilitating the development of a small to moderate ridge to
valley temperature split along with valley fog - locally dense.
The fog may become more extensive in the far east for places that
manage to see any rain in the late afternoon/early evening. For
Monday, another great day of weather will be on tap with
temperatures hitting the low to mid 70s again along with
comfortable humidity levels and plenty of sunshine for most of the
area. Look for some extra clouds around in the far east as the
high will only make limited progress east into Monday and more CU
is expected to develop there by mid to late afternoon. Expect a
similar night Monday night to tonight with another moderate ridge
to valley temp split on tap along with patchy valley fog, probably
less extensive than Monday morning thanks to another full day of
drying.

Again started with the ShortBlend for most elements of the
forecast with some terrain adjustments to temperatures both
tonight and Monday night for ridge to valley splits. During the
latter part of the forecast the SuperBlend was used as the init
with only minor adjustments to sky cover and temps/dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Broadening and deamplifying upper ridging will move overhead Tuesday
as a surface ridge slides across the southern Appalachians toward
the Atlantic coast. A continued warming trend will ensue as highs
soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s as a dry airmass remains in
place.

An upper low across lower Alberta and Saskatchewan into the
northern U.S, with an associated trough extending through the
intermountain west into the Great Basin, will then begin to nudge
eastward by midweek. Backing flow aloft along with leeside
cyclogenesis across the Great Plains will bring a steady dose of
return flow into eastern Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as early as Wednesday morning across the Bluegrass region
into the Lake Cumberland region, but will likely hold off until
later in the afternoon or evening when a shortwave impulse
approaches the region. May very well see additional waves or changes
in the timing to this one which could spark scattered storms
Wednesday given warm sector positioning.

Storm chances will continue through the remainder of the week into
the weekend with a stagnant airmass in place, but any source of low
level forcing in terms of a front will likely hang up well northwest
of the Ohio Valley as parent upper forcing turns north near or west
of the Great Lakes. A fairly sharp west to east gradient in
precipitation coverage could occur as an upper ridge now looks to
build across the eastern U.S. by late week into the weekend. Areas
along the higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky would still likely
see isolated storms due to orographic lift, but larger scale
synoptic forcing could be minimal to nil. Will have to wait and see
if the upper low lifting near the Great Lakes can turn east and
bring any more widespread showers and storms into next weekend.
Temperatures will continue to ride above normal with highs
generally in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Daytime heating has steepened the lapse rate this afternoon and
this has led to redevelopment of a decent CU field. Along with
this will go some instability showers in the east possibly
affecting SYM, SJS, and JKL. Thunder cannot be completely ruled
out from these, too, but mainly a threat for just SJS where it
was included in the TAF as VCTS. Fog should again develop late
tonight in the valleys, but is not expected to bring reductions
below VFR at the TAF sites, except perhaps SJS should they get
hit with a shower or storm later today. Winds will be light and
variable through the period as high pressure settles deeper into
the region.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF


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