Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230613
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
213 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

GOES-16 Advance Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel showing some
rapid fog formation in the river valleys over the past few hours.
Based on cross over temperatures around 64 and temperatures
already nearing this value in most places, fog could be as bad if
not a little worse than last night as temperatures continue to
fall. Looks like we had a slightly slower onset tonight due to the
fact we had slightly lower dewpoints tonight. However, expecting
things to catch up quickly with some rather dense fog around
daybreak. Introduced dense wording into the forecast with this
update. Overall, temperatures appear to be on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

A quiet night is underway, and the forecast is still on track.
Blending evening obs into the forecast grids has not resulted in
any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 801 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Have updated to blend in early evening obs and represent the
latest trends. That said, it has not resulted in any significant
changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350| PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Quiet weather expected through the short term making it basically
a temperature and fog forecast. Persistence will be a decent
forecaster through the period and tended to follow that line of
thinking while working the grids. Each night should see the
development of fog, mainly in the valley areas and near sources of
water but with slight improvements each night. Temperatures will
remain warm in general, especially afternoon highs. Increasingly
drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for
slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

A surface high pressure and upper level high will remain in
control of the sensible weather for much of the long range period.
However, the upper level high will begin breaking down as we move
toward midweek. Then a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley
but the upper level ridging will still be in place. This will
likely aid in mitigating much if any precipitation By Thursday,
with isolated showers possible mainly far southeast. The other
issue in seeing precipitation will be the attendant low pressure
will be northeast of Maine by late Wednesday. Despite model
divergence by the end of the week, we do stand the chance of
seeing some much cooler air filter into the region behind this
cold front. This could lead to a 15 to 20 degree lowering of
afternoon high temperatures by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

The only concern during the period will be dense late night/early
morning fog. As usual, it will start in deep valleys and grow in
breadth and depth through sunrise. Do not have high confidence in
TAF forecasts involving the fog, and have depended to a large
extent on persistence from last night. Fog will dissipate by late
morning in most locations. Aside from the fog, conditions will be
VFR. Winds will be 5 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL/KAS



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