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000
FXUS63 KJKL 151820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND JUST TO
MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH KENTUCKY
AS WE ARE BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS GRADIENT WILL MAKE
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ON SOUTHWEST WINDS FURTHER HELPING TO PROP
UP TEMPERATURES FOR POSSIBLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR...THUS FAR.
AT A MINIMUM IT WILL BE THE WARMEST IN ABOUT A MONTH. ALREADY
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHAKEN OFF THEIR MORNING LOWS AND ARE IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING A BIT SLOWER...
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE STATE
WILL ALSO HELP WITH OUR WARMTH TODAY. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE AT THEIR PEAK THROUGH
MIDDAY...AT JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT TEMPS UP IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE
MANAGED TO DECOUPLE. ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS SOME BACK BUILDING OF CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO OUR EAST...NORTHEAST. BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER IN
OUR AREA MUCH LONGER. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL
BUT TEMPORARY CLOUD COVER IN OUR FAR EAST. THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE
ZONES HOWEVER. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD THROUGH KENTUCKY.
THIS IS SUPPORTING AT LEAST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SURFACE WIND
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS UP IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPTION BEING OUR EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE
FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE INBOUND
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ATTENTION
TURNS TO A CLOSED LOW THAT QUICKLY OPENS UP INTO A WAVE ROLLING EAST
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE QUICKLY
BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED AND MUDDLED. BUT TIMING IS SIMILAR IN ALL
MODELS AND THE NAM12 NOT FAR OFF FROM CONSENSUS. ACCORDINGLY...
LEANED STRONGLY TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR FORECAST
DETAILS INTO THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM DAY...THOUGH SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. FOR MOST...BEING ACCUSTOMED TO THE COOL SPRING THUS FAR IT
MAY ACTUALLY FEEL ON THE VERGE OF BEING UNCOMFORTABLY HOT. TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE AS A MILD TO WARM NIGHT WITH CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD OUR CWA. HAVE CARRIED
OVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER
OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I64 CORRIDOR. NAM12 WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF HINTS AT SOME
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT NEVER QUITE MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUTS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...LIKELY IN THE NORTH...NORTHEAST TO ONLY
CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE. FOR
TEMPERATURES... JUST TWEAKED INHERITED TEMPS WHICH LOOK QUITE GOOD
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE MODELS START OUT IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE PATTERN IS TRYING
TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
IN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL US INTO CANADA AND THE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OFF OF THE EAST
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AND THEN CURVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVING TO THE NORTH FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH JUST SOME RESIDUAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY INTO THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SURGES THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A STRONG FRONT WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
BELOW AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER SATURDAY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HANDLE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES VERY WELL. THE WEATHER PATTER IS WARM AND UNSETTLE...THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW UNSETTLED WILL IT BE. FOR TEMPERATURES NUDGED
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF. FOR TIMING...ALSO
WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR MOST SITES. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY NOON. FOR THIS...HAVE
ADDED A VCTS AND CB TO THE TAFS. DID ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS OR VIS AFFECTING SME AND LOZ AT THE
CLOSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF/RAY
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF