Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TOUCHED UP THE LOWS AND HOURLY CURVES FOR BOTH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OF
VARYING THICKNESS...MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ENOUGH
THAT THEY ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS...IN THE
MID 40S VERSUS UPPER 50S...WITH RESPECT TO A DROP OFF IN TEMPS
DURING THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPDATED AVIATION GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF



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