Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
213 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

Continued to update pops and QPF based on latest rainfall trends,
with widespread rain expected to continue over a majority of the
southern and eastern CWA through much of the day. With ongoing
rain in mind, went ahead and extended flash flood watch for the
counties along the VA border until 11pm this evening. Kept the
remaining counties in the watch expiring at 4pm, although not
going to rule out some of these counties may need to be extended
further into the afternoon/evening. Based on a few reports of
roads closed due to high water, went ahead and issued a flood
warning for the SW portion of the CWA as well. Will continue to
monitor the rainfall coverage in case further updates are made.
Also loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and
winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with
current conditions. All changes have been saved and sent to
NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

Updated the PoP and Wx grids to reflect the latest radar trends
ands also to add in a touch of thunder across the FFW area for
this morning. Also, tweaked the near term T and Td grids per the
latest obs and trends. These updated grids have been sent to NDFD
and the web servers. The HWO was updated and a fresh set of zones
issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

06z sfc analysis shows a deep southern low passing by just to the
south of Kentucky. This low is responsible for the series of
waves - consisting of showers now - pushing across southern
Kentucky this weekend. Currently there is a lull between these
waves, even so sprinkles and drizzle are found across much of the
CWA this night. Low clouds blanket the southern half of the area
while in the far north they have actually cleared out. Winds are
from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph locking in the colder
air. Temperatures this night are running from near 45 degrees -
dewpoints in the upper 30s - north to the lower 50s in the far
south - dewpoints around 50.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a developing and closing
off low moving into the Tennessee Valley and then continuing
south - rolling through the deep south. The models are quite
similar with the magnitude, placement, and timing of this low
lending a good deal of confidence to their consensus forecast.
Accordingly, have favored the CONSShort model blend for most GFE
weather elements with special attention to the high resolution
components in the short term.

Sensible weather will feature a renewed surge of moisture and
showers pushing north into the CWA towards dawn and continuing
through the bulk of the day. The heaviest showers and higher QPF
are anticipated through the areas that remain under a Flash Flood
Watch. This may be able to be cleared earlier in the afternoon in
the west, but will likely be needed through 4 pm in the eastern
part and possibly longer. For now, will hold to the current
timing for this headline and pass on to later shifts to watch for
a need to extend it later in the east. Otherwise, cloudy, rainy,
and cool weather will be the rule today and into the evening for a
good portion of the area. The exception may be locations north of
Interstate 64 where some sunshine may be seen early this morning
and then later filtered through the clouds - but still seasonably
cool. On Monday, the sfc low should be far enough east that drier
starts to make its way into the area and dry us out from northwest
to southeast - allowing temperatures to recover to a bit closer to
normal for this time of year.

Again started the grids from the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance
set through this part of the forecast. Did not make much
adjustment to temperatures or dewpoints given the limited diurnal
range over the next 36 hours. However, did again beef up PoPs and
QPF, from the blend, across the south given the certainty for
measurable rain from yet a couple more surges of shower activity
during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

An upper level low will continue to meander up the east coast
through Tuesday while slowly shifting offshore into the Atlantic.
Mid level heights will slowly recover through the period with a
warming trend anticipated the the first half of the week. Dry
weather now looks like it will hold on through Wednesday evening.

The next chance of rain will come late Wednesday night and
Thursday as a shortwave trough drives another cold front across
the Ohio river valley. The front may be shearing out as it crosses
the area, so opted to stay with the lower blended pops as it may
not be a widespread rain event for the area. Regardless, a few
thunderstorms would be possible. Whats left of the washed out
front will lift back to the north as a warm front by weeks end
providing another shower and storm chance Friday into Saturday.
With the passage of the warm front temperatures will warm
dramatically next weekend with highs into the mid to upper 80s. As
it stands right now, there does not appear to be any threat of
severe weather or flooding with the rain chance on Thursday or
late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

Rain, heavy at times, continues across much of southeast KY,
especially the southern and far eastern portions, affecting all
of the TAF sites in some way. A bit low confidence on how things
will play out into the overnight as far as visibilities and
ceilings are concerned, with rain expected to persist through the
first part of the night, and fog likely to develop, continuing
even after the rain through the remainder of the overnight. Model
for all TAF sites varies considerably, but generally expecting IFR
with some occasional LIFR. KSYM has generally remained just north
of the biggest impacts, so expect generally MVFR conditions to
persist here throughout the overnight. Rain will continue to
taper off across the region with improving conditions into MVFR
through the day tomorrow. Once again, exact timing is still
uncertain. Winds will generally remain from the NE to E through
the period, 10 knots or less. Although guidance is pointing at
some gusty conditions throughout the overnight at KLOZ and KSME,
with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ087-088-
118-120.

Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ079-080-
083>086-110-113-115>117.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW


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