Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
238 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Mid/upper level pattern amplifies through the short term as
energy drops southeastward out of western Canada. This will result
in a deepening trough dropping into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday
night. At the surface high pressure shifts off to the east as a
cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
At present models keep all shower activity to the north of our
forecast area with only some additional cloud cover and a wind
shift to announce the passage of the frontal boundary. Winds will
increase ahead of the frontal system Tuesday to between 10 and 15
mph. Higher gusts to around 25 mph should be expected as well.
Otherwise the short term is pretty much a temp forecast. Looking
for one more night of cold air in our eastern valley locations.
Gradient winds will be increasing tonight and all signs point to
our western valleys mixing out through the overnight. Consequently
and with support from guidance went warmer in the west. Highs
Tuesday will depend on the amount of cloud cover we realize. But
the heart of our CWA and points eastward may manage to tweak out a
high temperature of around 60. Unfortunately winds will make it
seem a little cooler than that.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

From Wednesday through next Monday there is good model agreement
with the overall upper air pattern which will feature a mean trough
in the eastern U.S. and ridging in the west. This will result in
overall below normal temperatures for eastern KY, and with limited
moisture available dry weather will continue to prevail.

The long term portion of the forecast begins with colder air once
again filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. Surface
high pressure will also be building into the area, with dry but
chilly weather for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. As the high shifts to
the east on Friday, warmer air will begin making its way into our
area in advance of the next cold front. Moisture will be limited
with this front, but there will be a slight chance of a few showers
in the far the northern part of the forecast area Friday night or
early Saturday. After the frontal passage Saturday, colder air will
spread back across the area for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds
will be light and generally from the south until Tuesday when the
gradient winds increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 kts.
Higher gusts are expected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY


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