Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 230251
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1051 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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