Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231143
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
743 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Fog has been rather dense along the river valleys this morning, so
opted for an SPS for the next few hours until the fog lifts.
Otherwise, no changes to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place
this weekend with persistence the way to go with highs and lows.
Thus, will maintain warm afternoon highs in the forecast with
cool morning lows. This mornings fog will burn off quickly after
sunrise. With another day of good mixing with dewpoints
potentially dipping into the upper 50s, the fog tonight should be
more limited to the river valleys and not quite as dense either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in
control of the weather through midweek. This will continue to
promote above normal temperatures, generally in the mid and upper
80s. By Thursday, heights will begin to decrease across Kentucky
as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will also make its way SE towards the CWA,
traversing sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model
trends continue to show this front losing considerable strength by
the time it reaches eastern KY, due in part to the parent low
pressure system moving much farther northward, well into NE
Canada. The ECMWF model still supports a dry forecast as the front
moves over, while the GFS is dry up until Thursday afternoon, at
which point diurnal influences will help to produce some light
showers with low QPF values. Continued to go with the blend
between the two, which supports only isolated showers at best
Thursday afternoon. Cooler temps and lack of instability will
prevent thunder wording. Behind this cold front, another
reinforcing cold front is expected to end out the period. These
two systems will bring the push of more seasonable temperatures
into the CWA to end out the week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Dense fog will lift over the next hour or two before giving way to
VFR conditions for the balance of the day. We should see slightly
drier air mix down to the surface this afternoon, and that may
keep the fog a little more limited tonight. However, we should
still see some dense fog right along the rivers and streams. Given
the lesser degree of fog, limited in more in the TAFs for the
upcoming night, except at KSJS where dewpoints may stay a tad
higher. Fog forecast will increase a bit pending how much dry air
does in fact mix down this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS


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