Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF





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