Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE
DAYTIME...LIKELY PERSISTING PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
BRIEF LULL MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE SHEAR
BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL...SEVERE THREAT MAY HINDER ON BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL WITH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ONLY AROUND 8KFT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME
LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WHILE
ECMWF BRINGS IN OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL PLAN TO STICK
WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WHICH WILL KEEP FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WEAK AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME CHILLY
AIR...AND PERHAPS SOME FROST TO SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS...BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT. RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY WEEKS END AND MAY
BRING US BACK TO A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE BKN TO OVC
AT 22 TO 25K. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOW OVER TIME...AND WE
SHOULD SEE CIGS OF 5 TO 6K BY AROUND 11Z TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 7Z TONIGHT...WITH MOST
OR ALL OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN BY 14Z ON SATURDAY. THE
CULPRIT OF THE EXPECTED WET WEATHER WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR


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