Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



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