Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
937
FXUS63 KJKL 011957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF
SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.