Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191431
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







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