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000
FXUS63 KJKL 200751 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY HAS
SPARKED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EVEN A
STRAY SHOWER CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE JKL OFFICE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THESE TRENDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN LINE LOOKS TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 4 AND 4:30 AM.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY
NUDGING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DESPITE A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...SO ANYTHING THAT
DOES INITIATE COULD BE STRONG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON TUESDAY...THE PLAINS TROUGH
WILL BE GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER AND ANY CAPPING WILL BE WEAK. WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S...THREATENING
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE AT JKL AND LOZ.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PRESSING EAST ALONG THE NRN CONUS
BORDER. A WAVE IN THE ERN PLAINS  HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
WHICH WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO ERN KY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHOUT MUCH ORGANIZATION
AS THE SFC LOW TAKES FORM AND MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY WED
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN KY AS THE MID LEVEL OPENS INTO A
WAVE AS IT PUSHES OVER THE ERN RIDGE. WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SERIES OF
WAVES CYCLE AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE 50H DISTURBANCE WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN REFLECTED AT THE SFC. BY EARLY FRI MORNING
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS CHANGED TO A PLAINS RIDGE AND COASTAL TROFS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND BRING A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER. THAT WILL LAST THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH
DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BRING
SCATTERED PCPN ON WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RESTRICTED TO THE MID 60S
DUE TO HIGH DWPTS AND CLOUDS. THEN ON THU THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ERN KY WITH SCATTERED STORMS AND COOLER TEMPS AS HIGHS ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT DROP TO AROUND 60. WITH THE
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING ON FRI LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND CLEARING LATE FRI WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE
MID 50S. THE COOL AIR WILL KEEP SAT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPITE
OF A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS EARLY AS THE DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO COMPLEMENT THE COOLER NORTH WINDS. AS THE
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ERN KY ON SUN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUN WILL BEGIN THE
HEATING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOG WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIT THE FOG MORE SO AT JKL
AND LOZ SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS SAW DECENT RAINFALL. THERE IS SOME
LINGERING CU...SO CONDITIONS MAY NOT DETERIORATE UNTIL THE 09 TO 12Z
RANGE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION AT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN