Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201941
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE
BLENDED MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS HOWEVER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SLOWLY LOWER THE CIGS DURING THE
EVENING AND WILL BE ABLE TO GET THEM DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FT BY 9Z. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ





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