Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221919

National Weather Service Jackson KY
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

Outflow from convection last night has kicked off some convection
as it has crossed northern Kentucky this afternoon. A modest shear
gradient is over eastern Kentucky with modest unidirectional flow
in the north, to much weaker flow to the south. This will keep the
stronger storms in the north through this evening with more
isolated and weaker activity to the south. All of this should
gradually weaken into the evening as the outflow moves on

Focus will shift back to the north later this evening as a cold
front will focus additional convective development back to the
north tonight. This activity will likely evolve into an MCS as it
outflows to the south. This will carry any shower/storm activity
into northern Kentucky once again. Some uncertainty remains in the
track of any activity as initiation will play a big part on where
a potential MCS tracks. However, most of the CAMS have some
activity working into our area overnight into early Sunday
morning. With a moist boundary layer remaining, some gusty winds
will remain possible with storms as they track south and east.

Tomorrow, the cold front will continue to make slow progress
southward across eastern Kentucky and will continue to be the
focus for additional shower and storm activity. What happens later
in the day may be impacted by how the morning MCS pans out and
what boundaries are left behind. However, we will keep the rain
chances going through the day and through tomorrow night with
better chances gradually shifting south with the front. Modest
shear will be place along the cold frontal zone and will aid in
the potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds
continuing to be the main threat. Overall, looks like a few
periods of wet weather will be possible over the next 36 hours.
With the increase in clouds and precipitation, temperatures may
stay a touch cooler tomorrow, but we may warm up between the
morning MCS and afternoon convection, with mid to upper 80s still
anticipated. This will keep heat index values in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

Long term discussion to follow shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the period. A widely
isolated shower or storm could impact areas through this
afternoon. A brief wind gusts up to 20 or 30 mph will be possible
with this activity. Activity will diminish this evening, before
another chance arrives late tonight. If we stay clear, we could
see some valley fog develop.




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