Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR


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