Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

07z sfc analysis shows a summertime cold front dropping south
through eastern Kentucky. This is attempting to bring drier air
into the JKL CWA on light north to northeast winds. This is also
helping to keep the fog in check north of the Mountain Parkway
while locations to the south are still experiencing patchy fog
with likely some locally dense spots in the sheltered southern
valleys. Temperatures currently are varying from the mid 60s north
to the lower 70s in the south. Meanwhile dewpoints are running in
the low 60s far north to the upper 60s and lower 70s south.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict rising heights over the
region as a large area of ridging spreads in from the southwest.
This occurs in the wake of a departing trough over the Northeast.
Weak energy packets will slide southeast in the mid level
northwest flow through the Ohio Valley but stay too far north to
have much of an effect on Kentucky in the rising heights
environment. Given the agreement have favored a general model
blend through Wednesday evening.

Sensible weather will feature patchy fog along with some local
dense spots dissipating by mid morning with a drier and somewhat
more comfortable afternoon for most places thanks to high pressure
and a change of air mass. Look for a quiet night to follow with
temperatures about a category cooler than early this morning and
any fog likely confined to the deeper river valleys. Wednesday
will be a bit warmer than today and humidity levels will climb as
the front to the south starts to work back north with returning
moisture. Can`t completely rule out a shower or storm in the far
southwest for Wednesday afternoon, but in all likelihood the
entire area will be dry through Wednesday evening.

Again used the CONSShort as the start for the forecast grids with
only minor point adjustments made to lows and highs. Basically
zeroed out PoPs for all but the Cumberland Valley today and
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Eastern Kentucky should see a brief period of dry weather to begin
the period, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place Wednesday
night. Based on the latest model data, however, this ridge will
quickly be displaced by an approaching cold front Thursday morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to break out
in the warm moist air ahead off the front Thursday morning. The
precipitation will gradually become more widespread Thursday
afternoon, as the front begins to move southward through the Ohio
Valley. The most widespread rain is expected to occur Thursday night
and Friday, as the front drifts southward across the region. By late
Friday afternoon, showers and storms should begin to move out of the
area and into eastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. This
trend should continue Friday night, as the front moves into the
Tennessee Valley. The last bit of rain should be out of the area by
around dawn on Saturday. Another ridge of high pressure should then
bring more dry weather to eastern Kentucky Saturday and Saturday
night. A series of passing weather systems are then forecast to
bring more rounds of showers and storms to the area from Sunday
through Monday night.

Temperatures are expected to start out around normal to begin the
period, before transitioning to normal to below normal values from
Friday onward. The coolest period should be Friday through Saturday,
when temperatures are expected to max out in the lower 80s. Nightly
lows will start off around 70 degrees the first couple of nights of
the extended, before decreasing to the low to mid 60s the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

The earlier broken band of showers over the western parts of the
Cumberland Valley has faded out. This occurred  in advance of a
cool front slipping south through the northern parts of the JKL
CWA where winds are veering northerly. Drier air will gradually
filter into the area behind this front later tonight, but enough
low level moisture will remain to likely produce areas of fog
across eastern Kentucky - locally dense. This should be more
prevalent in sheltered valleys, as well as further south of
Mountain Parkway where the drier air will be delayed in mixing
down into the lower levels. IFR/MVFR visibilities look very
possible for all sites, but SYM at some point later tonight -
ridges early and valleys later, with periods of sub-IFR conditions
certainly possible at SME and perhaps LOZ. Conditions will
improve to VFR with the onset of daytime mixing by mid morning
though winds will remain light, near 5 knots or less, mainly from
the northeast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN/GREIF



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