Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170614 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
214 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

The forecast remains on track. Just freshened up the hourly
temperatures and dew points through the overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 1031 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Forecast continues to be in good shape late this evening. Made a
couple of minor updates over the last few hours to make sure the
near term grids for temps, dew points, winds, and sky were on
track with current conditions. Kept with ongoing fog forecast as
no significant changes were made to the overnight temps/dew
points. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A
new forecast package was sent out to replace with overnight
wording.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Quick update to make sure the near term grids were on track with
the current observations. Only minor changes made as a result. All
changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

19z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure
over eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This is keeping the wx dry,
so far, across the area though a decent cu field has developed at
between 4 and 6k feet AGL. The cloud development has not hindered
the temperature climb today, though, with readings up in the
upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
holding in the mid 60s with light winds generally out of the
north.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. Ridging will build through the region
this weekend, though it is sort of dirty with bits of energy
drifting through the higher height fields. Regardless, a blending
of the models will be a reasonable starting point.

Sensible weather will feature nice conditions through the rest of
the weekend and into the start of the new week. Look for areas of
fog to develop tonight and tomorrow night becoming locally dense
in the valleys late. During the days, fair weather cu will be
plentiful, but any shower chances will be sub 14%. Temperatures
will end up just a smidge higher than normal in the upper 70s and
low 80s most places.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point of all
the grids. Did make some changes to temperatures each night based
on terrain anticipating a small to moderate ridge and valley
split. As for PoP, have kept them low through the period - in
line with guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

The story in the extended will actually be temperatures this time
around. Based on the latest model data and the current weather
pattern, we should see slightly above normal temperatures with
highs in the lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s each
night. There will be a chance of showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon in our far western counties and across the entire area
on Wednesday. The rest of the period will be dry. Winds during the
extended should be generally light and variable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

LIFR or worse fog will develop through dawn. Given the current
conditions in place, SME and SJS will likely dip below airport
minimums, with some temporary LIFR or worse conditions at SYM
closer to dawn, and LOZ getting down to IFR status. JKL looks to
stay VFR. The fog will burn off by around 13z, with scattered
cumulus at around 5k feet agl seen during the day. Winds will
average below 5 kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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