Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. CLEARLY WITH THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS STILL IN THE 50S FRO HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS AND LOOKING AT
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM WOULD SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES.
OTHERWISE...THE LIKELY CASE OF CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE EXPECTED MAX TEMP FOR TODAY A FEW
DEGREES. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WSR-88D STILL PICKING UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. DREARY FALL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATED
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED
THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS
COUPLED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN THE CULPRIT OF THE
LATE EVENING YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS WANED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK/SHEARED SHORTWAVE.
THIS MORNING THE 07Z WSR-88D STILL SHOWS SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC. EASTERN KY WILL BE MEET WITH A FALL LIKE DAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL USHER IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE STAYS
TRAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THIS EVENING A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NO AFFECT IN TERMS OF POPS. RIGHT NOW THINK
THE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT MORE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...BUT AT MOST BRINGS A FEW
MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTH BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF A COOL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL SHARPEN UP HEADING INTO
MEMORIAL DAY BUT ALSO SHIFT ITS AXIS MORE TOWARD THE EAST. THIS
SHIFT WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROLLING OUT OF A BROAD TROUGH OPENING UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LATER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT REALLY BRUSH CLOSE TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
ITS CASE INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE RETREATS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
STARTS TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO POPS
AND SKY COVER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW AT THE SFC. THE RIDGE SEEMS TOO STRONG AND ANY SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WX THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGHER CONSENSUS POPS AS SEEN IN
THE SUPERBLEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...PEAKING
EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN IS A GOOD SETUP FOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN WE ARE MORE DRY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...
BUT SEEMED TOO WET FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS EACH NIGHT EMPHASIZING THE LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPING POOR CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING
AND EVEN A SHOWER OR TWO...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT A
BIT WITH SOME LIFTING CEILINGS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND EVENING CLEAR
OUT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS...DENSE FOG WILL SOCK
IN THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW MINS AT
MANY LOCATIONS BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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