248
FXUS63 KJKL 281942 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
342 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
  Heat indices will peak in the 90s to around 100 degrees for
  Saturday through Monday.

- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the first
  half of next week.

- A potential cold front passage toward the middle of next week
  could bring at temporary relief from the sustained heat and
  humidity. Daily high temperatures might return to the 90s from
  next Saturday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025

A slightly cooler and less humid air mass is noted over eastern
Kentucky late this afternoon with widespread temperatures in the 85
to 90 degree range for elevations below 1,500 feet ASL. While there
are just a few spotty radar returns showing up in our area, mainly
in the I-64 corridor at 1930z, regional radar shows multiple
clusters and loosely organized lines of showers and thunderstorms
slowly advancing eastward through Central Kentucky. This activity
has developed ahead of a slow-moving vort max disturbance
embedded in the westerly flow aloft. Sporadic convection is also
sagging into southern Indiana and Ohio with a stalling cold
frontal boundary.

As the disturbance approaches, CAM guidance has struggled to resolve
the evolution of the associated convection. Shear is minimal and
thus limiting overall storm organization, however, 2,500 to 3,500
J/kg of MUCAPE in an uncapped environment has allowed for upstream
convection to develop and establish a cold pool which is now likely
aiding in maintenance of the linear storm structure. High PWATs
in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, combined with relatively slow cell
movement to the east northeast at 10 to 20 mph, may pose a risk
for isolated high water/flash flooding, especially if multiple
storm cores pass over the same location, or if a heavier cell
impacts a location that received heavy rainfall yesterday. An
isolated strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts can also not be
ruled out under the most intense cores through sunset.

Expect most if not all convection to dissipate after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
overnight, but a vast majority of the area should be rain-free.
It will be muggy but a little cooler than recent nights with lows
in the 65 to 70F range for most places. The stalled cold frontal
boundary will pull away to the northeast as a warm front on
Sunday, but additional weak perturbations in the westerly flow
aloft are likely to aid in additional convection development,
primarily during the afternoon/early evening, coincident with
peak heating. Isolated instances of high water as well as a stray
damaging wind gust or two will once again be possible. Look for
high temperatures in the 85 to 90F range on Sunday. Sunday night
appears similar to Saturday night -- leftover convection mostly
wanes after sunset, though a stray shower or storm remains
possible overnight as temperatures settle back to between 66 and
71F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 525 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025

The 27/12z 500H model suite analysis beginning Sunday morning shows
a relatively zonal west-east flow over the northern half of the
CONUS while multiple subtle relative highs/lows are in place from
Bermuda back across the southern CONUS to the Desert Southwest.
Within the westerly flow, a shortwave trough will be passing
through the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley along with an
associated surface cold front. Further upstream, a more
substantial but low amplitude trough extends from Saskatchewan
southwestward into the southeastern Idaho. A weak surface low
reflection is found over Lake Winnipeg while its associated cold
front sags southwestward into Nebraska and Wyoming.

The leading shortwave trough just skims the JKL area as it passes to
our north on Sunday. However, the surface cold frontal boundary
remains north of the Ohio River and eventually retreats to the
northeast as a warm front. This will leave our muggy, humid air
mass relatively unchanged. Thus, expect another day of scattered
to numerous convection on Sunday after moderate diurnal-heating
induced destabilization. The next trough will amplify and dive
southeast Monday and Monday night, finally shoving its associated
cold front southeast across the Coalfields late Monday night into
Tuesday. With the warm and muggy air mass still in place,
anticipate more showers and thunderstorms from Monday into
Tuesday, with intensity/coverage modulated by the diurnal
heating/cooling cycle. A modest increase in shear is modeled as
the cold front approaches Monday night/early Tuesday, but passage
is currently favored to occur when instability is at a minimum.
Once the front clears the area, mainly dry and slightly cooler
weather is on tap for Wednesday into Thursday as surface high
pressure noses in behind a broad trough axis to our east. (Some
guidance hints at the possibility of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon, but that will depend upon
how quickly the front departs.) A reinforcing cold front drops
into the area late Thursday night and early Friday.

In sensible terms, expect continued unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours, into Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to near 90F in the afternoon while
nighttime minimums range in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Behind the
first cold front, expect daily high temperatures to remain very
warm, mid 80s to near 90F, but dew points will be several
degrees lower, allowing nighttime lows to fall back into the 60s
each night from Tuesday onward. This includes the Fourth of July
holiday, which at this point looks to be mostly sunny and dry
outside of the small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
Fog is likely each night, especially in valleys; but is expected
to be least prevalent Monday night when the first cold front
pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025

Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected again
this afternoon, with localized sub-VFR conditions. This activity
should decline this evening. Fog formation is likely again
tonight in the valleys, but any impacts at the TAF sites is
dependent upon rainfall coverage through this evening. Winds will
be variable, generally under 5 kts, except gusty and erratic near
thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON