Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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218
FXUS63 KJKL 281900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL
BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY.

NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY
DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE
RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE
COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE
CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64
AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST
YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN
WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE ANTICIPATE
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS USED IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS ANY SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. IF AN AIRPORT WERE TO EXPERIENCE
A SHOWER OR STORM...MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
WILL START OUT BKN AT AROUND 3K...AND SHOULD BECOME SCT AT AROUND
5K BY AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH OUT
THE PERIOD. PILOTS CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
VALLEY FOG. THIS FOG MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTS THE SURROUNDING
RIDGETOPS. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR



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