Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 030410
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1110 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR TEMPS...BLENDING IN LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. MODELS GENERATE LITTLE
OR NO PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
OVERLAID BY A WEAK CAP IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

WHILE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...WE WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION TO A
MAJOR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IN THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
MID WEEK.

TO START OUT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E
ACROSS KY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PULLING OUT OF EASTERN KY BY
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS IN CONTROL...EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES PLAINS WILL MAKE A QUICK SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA
FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...PULLING IN MOIST BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS KY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z /GENERALLY/ PRECIP WILL MOVE IN
STARTING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR...MODELED SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG BEHIND IN
THE LATEST DATA...CREATING A GOOD SCENARIO FOR FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IT WILL THANKFULLY
BE SHORT LIVED AS SURFACE TEMPS QUICKLY REACT AND RISE ABOVE
FREEZING JUST AFTER 12Z...CHANGING ALL PRECIP OVER TO JUST RAIN.

BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 0Z WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN WARM MOIST AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING TUESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 3Z TUESDAY...WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST LI/S AND SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP SO EXPECT
THUNDER POTENTIAL TO DIE OFF AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT PEGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LAY OUT ENE TO WSW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN DWINDLING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF THE HEADWATER AREAS IN
THE CUMBERLAND AND KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME REMAINING
AS THE HEAVY RAINS HIT. SINCE THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALLER STREAM AND CREEK FLOODING WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS PEAKING THURSDAY
AND LIKELY RUNNING HIGH INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR
SOME OF THE MORE DOWNSTREAM POINTS.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE HAS BEEN AN EMERGING WINTER WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE COLDER AIR MAKING IT IN WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING LINGER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND THEN LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF THIS
POTENTIAL OUTCOME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE BRIGHTER SIDE...IF THIS FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WERE TO COME TO PASS...IT WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE
RUNOFF POTENTIAL. WE WILL BE EAGERLY AWAITING FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TO SEE HOW ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...EVEN POSSIBLY BELOW
0 DEGREES IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MARCH. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES
START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NUDGED POPS
TOWARDS A 12Z ECMWF/SUPERBLEND BLEND. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION YET AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWER CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 09Z...MVFR SHOULD BEGIN TO INVADE
FROM SW TO NE...WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTING MVFR BY ABOUT 14Z. IFR
WILL ALSO START SHOWING SHOWING UP ON TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL...
ALONG WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SOME MEAGER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JVM
AVIATION...HAL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.