Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210630

National Weather Service Jackson KY
130 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 130 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

No significant changes. We are seeing temperatures in our western
zones leveling out or coming up with the gradient increasing.
Temperatures still falling in the far eastern valleys, so have
lowered another degree. All in all, forecast is in great shape.

UPDATE Issued at 1008 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

With cloud cover only consisting of a few strands of cirrus and
the tightening pressure gradient still west of Interstate 75,
opted to lower temperatures a couple of degrees across the
valleys of far eastern Kentucky. May see these begin to warm or at
least hold steady later tonight as increasing wind speeds allow
for some mixing.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Cirrus across the higher terrain has mostly exited the Lake
Cumberland region, but more will be on the approach later tonight.
Prior to then, will have to monitor valley temperatures dropping
off. Still expecting valleys in the Lake Cumberland region and
Bluegrass to mix out later tonight as south/southwest winds
increase out ahead of the eastern flank of a surface trough
currently entering western Kentucky. Eastern valleys will keep
cooler temperatures locked in place through later tonight or
potentially early Tuesday morning with later arrival of the
increasing pressure gradient.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Mid/upper level pattern amplifies through the short term as
energy drops southeastward out of western Canada. This will result
in a deepening trough dropping into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday
night. At the surface high pressure shifts off to the east as a
cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
At present models keep all shower activity to the north of our
forecast area with only some additional cloud cover and a wind
shift to announce the passage of the frontal boundary. Winds will
increase ahead of the frontal system Tuesday to between 10 and 15
mph. Higher gusts to around 25 mph should be expected as well.
Otherwise the short term is pretty much a temp forecast. Looking
for one more night of cold air in our eastern valley locations.
Gradient winds will be increasing tonight and all signs point to
our western valleys mixing out through the overnight. Consequently
and with support from guidance went warmer in the west. Highs
Tuesday will depend on the amount of cloud cover we realize. But
the heart of our CWA and points eastward may manage to tweak out a
high temperature of around 60. Unfortunately winds will make it
seem a little cooler than that.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

From Wednesday through next Monday there is good model agreement
with the overall upper air pattern which will feature a mean trough
in the eastern U.S. and ridging in the west. This will result in
overall below normal temperatures for eastern KY, and with limited
moisture available dry weather will continue to prevail.

The long term portion of the forecast begins with colder air once
again filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. Surface
high pressure will also be building into the area, with dry but
chilly weather for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. As the high shifts to
the east on Friday, warmer air will begin making its way into our
area in advance of the next cold front. Moisture will be limited
with this front, but there will be a slight chance of a few showers
in the far the northern part of the forecast area Friday night or
early Saturday. After the frontal passage Saturday, colder air will
spread back across the area for Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the end of the forecast
period. Winds will increase out of the southwest, mainly after
daybreak, as the gradient increases ahead of a cold front. Wind
gusts up to 20 knots will be possible. Gusts will subside this
evening. As the front pushes through late tonight, some low clouds
may develop into the area.




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