Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191205 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
705 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 645 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018

Did a quick update to the grids to dramatically lower PoPs for the
rest of the morning. Kept a little bit in for the HRRR suggesting
another stray shower or two possible. Also expanded the sprinkles
for a time. Finally, the near term T and Td grids were tweaked per
the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018

07z sfc analysis shows a developing warm front lifting through
Kentucky. With this, a lead band of showers are sliding east
through eastern Kentucky. Lighter and more spotty showers follow
to the west. Plenty of clouds accompany the boundary and this,
along with some stirring of the sfc winds, have cleared out the
worst of the ridge to valley temperature differences. As such,
readings now vary across the JKL CWA from the low 40s in the
valleys with low 50s seen on the ridges. Dewpoints have come up,
as well and now range from the upper 30s in the north to the low
50s coming into the southwest portions of the Cumberland Valley.
Winds are generally from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph,
though near calm in the valleys and somewhat higher on the
ridges. In fact, just off the sfc winds are much stronger from the
southwest at 40 to 50 mph as seen in the JKL radar`s VWP.

The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast as they all depict a burgeoning ridge
through the southeast section of the nation today through Tuesday.
Rising heights over Kentucky will send the stream of weak mid
level energy waves to the north of the area this morning with a
much less active flow of southwest winds over the state after 12z
this morning. Given the model sameness will favor a blend with a
strong lean on the radar trends and the higher resolution HRRR
for the near term, and more wx active, part of the forecast.

Sensible weather will feature warming temperatures through dawn
for most of the area - and especially the valleys - as a warm
front lifts through with a few scattered showers around for a time
until around mid morning. This rain threat basically ends from
southwest to northeast during the morning with near record and
record warmth commencing this afternoon and again on Tuesday.
Tuesday`s highs will actually approach all time highs for the
month of February at JKL and LOZ. The main question for these
extreme values will be the amount of cloud cover and the thickness
of any deck during peak heating. For now will continue to go with
the headline grabbing 80 degree readings for Tuesday afternoon
and still nice low to mid 70s today. For tonight, a summertime
worthy ridge to valley temperature structure should develop with
warm readings on the hilltops and still very mild conditions in
the valleys. Despite the moisture available, these warm
temperatures and still some clouds around should limit the fog
potential early Tuesday morning. Definitely the finest weather of
the month on tap for eastern Kentucky over the next few days!

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all
the grids for the short term. Made some significant changes to the
valleys for lows tonight and also more minor adjustments to the
spot high temperature forecast for today and Tuesday. As for PoPs,
lingered them a tad longer this morning than the quickly drying
CONSShort and also allowed for some sprinkles as the sfc ridge
builds over the area this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018

The extended period looks to be wet and very warm, with almost daily
chances of rain and well above normal temperatures. A series of
weather systems will bring rain to eastern Kentucky from early
Wednesday morning through late Sunday night. There may even be a few
thunderstorms rumbling across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures
will vary from the 60s to 70s each day, and mainly in the 50s each
night. A number of locations may only fall into the lower 60s
Tuesday night. Winds should be generally out of the south or
southwest at 5 to 10 mph each day, and light and variable at night.
The windiest day looks to be Wednesday, when winds will be out of
the south at around 10 mph across much of the area. Wind gusts that
day should top out at 15 to 20 mph.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Except for SYM ceilings have already made it back up to VFR
levels as the majority of any showers have slipped off to the
northeast. Although a final stray one or some sprinkles cannot be
ruled out, the TAFs were kept clean this cycle. Cigs as they exist
will climb through the day and become rather high and thin
tonight. Winds will pick up from the southwest from mid-morning
through the late afternoon hours with some gusts to 20 kts
possible before settling back down in the evening. Per the
morning VWP will keep some LLWS in through 15z at most sites this
morning. This will again be a concern tonight and have included it
in the TAFs and grids.




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