Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 040739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS



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