Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240020 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN/SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 10 AND
16Z ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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