Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240416
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1116 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

LIGHTNING IN OUR AREA ENDED EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS DOMINATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM IS SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF INSTABILITY MOVING IN FROM THE SW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR TONIGHT...BUT KEPT A
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS OCCURRED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT EVEN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...BUT OVERALL THE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WSR-88D SHOWING BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE ALONG THIS AREA WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING AROUND A QUARTER OF A INCH WITH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER STORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS THESE BANDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LA COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WOULD EXPECT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WE WILL QUICKLY GET INTO THE DRY
SLOT. THEREFORE MOISTURE DOES GET CUTOFF AND LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY ICE ALOFT. DID OPT TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY SNOW CONTINUES TO
DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE HOWEVER TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION GIVEN
THE OVERALL BETTER CONTINUITY.

DEEPER TROUGHING WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
THE MORNING HOURS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING WILL BE REASSERT
ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SLOWER AND ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHERN STREAM
INTERACTION...PROLONGING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE AND ALLOWED FOR LIKELY POPS
BY SUNDAY...AND THEN LOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT UNTIL SOME OF THE
DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT
MORE RAIN THEN SNOW THROUGH WEEKEND...AND THEN PERHAPS A SNOWIER
FINISH AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH COLDER AIR ACTUALLY
MAKES IT IN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LOOK ON TAP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALTHOUGH RAIN WAS FALLING AT MOST LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY
VFR OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST HELPING TO MITIGATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR VISIBILITY WAS
COMMON FROM MIDDLESBORO AND LONDON WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD
CONTINUE. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY BEFORE IT
PASSES...WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. AS THE FRONT PASSES...
WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE
LOST. AS THIS HAPPENS...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AND IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL






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