Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 212000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of
eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level
weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring
broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area.
The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount
of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the
latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight
will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday
are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another
shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in
the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to rule across the CONUS through the period. Ridging will
remain the dominant feature across the Desert Southwest, with
persistent troughing across The Pacific Northwest and the East.
Differences crop up more in the smaller scale features, so a blend
of the guidance was a good compromise.

The resultant weather for eastern Kentucky will be dry, with
temperatures overall averaging below normal. Cool high pressure
will build in across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s, with lower 20s in
some of the cooler eastern valleys. Highs for the holiday will be
in the mid to upper 40s. The surface high will shift to the east
through Friday morning, with eastern valleys likely dropping into
the mid 20s once again, as southwest winds engage.

A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north,
closer to the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures
will average near normal across our area, with highs in the mid
50s. Another cool down will follow this front, with highs reducing
to the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

The TAF period will start off with scattered to broken layers of
mid-level and high clouds. These clouds should persist through
early this evening. Overnight, clouds should scatter out between 1
and 6Z, before a passing upper level disturbance brings scattered
to broken clouds to the TAF sites once again between 6 and 11Z.
The second round of clouds may also include a scattered to broken
layer of low level clouds at each TAF sites between 9 and 11Z.
Those clouds should scatter out early Wednesday morning as the sun
rises and drier air filters into the area from the northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR


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