Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 020527
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO UPLOAD THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE
GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE SENT THE
GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ONCE AGAIN...SIMPLY BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH NO
CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE BLENDED LATE DAY OBS INTO THE EVENING FORECAST...WITH NO
CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER BUT THESE ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SKIPS ACROSS
NORTHERN KY. MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG RIVER BEDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM TIME TO TIME. DECIDED TO REDUCE THE POPS
GIVEN BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME SINCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERDOING
IT RECENTLY. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR AGAIN.
MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
RIDGE TOPS. SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAWN.
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ONLY A 4 KFT CU LAYER DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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