Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 131758
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1258 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
Issued at 1258 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017
A widespread band of rain continues to push east across much of
Kentucky. Will see this band lift slowly to the north through the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s north
of Mountain Parkway and 40s south to low 50s along the Tennessee
border, so still looking at all liquid precipitation.
UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017
The forecast is largely on track. Showers have been on an overall
slow decline early this morning. The next uptick is underway in
the western part of the state now, and should affect our area
later in the day.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 437 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017
A cold front passed through the region overnight, and was about to
stall early this morning as it tried to make its way through TN.
Overrunning rain/showers lingered north of the front over KY, but
has been on a very slow decline. This trend will continue into the
morning. Models then show a precip resurgence over the western
and central portions of the state, which nudges into eastern KY
late in the day. The area of precip then shifts largely to our
north and east tonight, as the frontal boundary wavers back north
to the KY border. This is then followed by precip sinking back
south into KY on Saturday.
With the front remaining nearby, cold air is not making a
forceful entry, and we will have a sizable temperature difference
from north to south.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 437 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017
There will be several chances of rain over the long term forecast
period and this will be brought to us by a baroclinic zone
initially. This zone of baroclinicity will waver across the region
through the first portions of period and will lead to some what low
predictability on exact timing of rainfall. Right now have best
chances Saturday night into early Sunday before this zone begins to
push north Sunday into Sunday night. This will be on the move, as a
anomalous upper level closed low ejects out of the Baja Peninsula
and negatively tilts across the Southern Plains. This will
essentially lift this boundary north as more of a warm front by
early Monday. Models have some differences in this thought, but
overall seem to be good agreement with this synoptic feature. This
will lead to the possibility of dry weather for many Sunday night
into Monday night.
This already vertically stacked low pressure system across the
Southern Plains will eject into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, as the
attached cold front approaches from the west. The southerly flow
ahead of this cold front will lead to near record afternoon high
temps Tuesday. Then some of the continuity of the synoptic features
begin to breakdown and will lead to less confidence toward the end
of the period. Overall does look like this aforementioned system
will lead to a breakdown of the very strong plus 588mb ridge in the
Gulf of Mexico. The question will be how much will be left of the
frontal boundary as frontolysis takes place. That said did opt to
lower POPs some for Thursday given the latest guidance. Best chances
of precip will generally be from late Tuesday night into Wednesday
night from west to east.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017
LIFR/IFR conditions remain in place for the most part, with the
exception being SYM where low-end MVFR conditions are in play. A
band of rain will move across all sites this afternoon before
sliding north of SYM late this afternoon and this evening.
Abundant low level moisture along with the incoming rain will
likely produce periods of IFR/MVFR visibilities as well.
Visibilities should improve at times as more widespread rainfall
ends, but ceilings will stay IFR/LIFR through Saturday morning
into the afternoon.
Icing concerns still look to remain north of all terminals. Pilots
flying west into the Missouri Valley or north toward CVG/CMH
should be aware that icing potential will greatly increase this
evening and tonight into Saturday.