Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270711
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
311 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

A few rain showers have formed during the overnight, and should be
moving into the area between 7 and 8Z. These should remain
isolated to scattered through early this morning. This activity is
likely firing up due to the presence of a weak low level jet. A
few thunderstorms should begin forming across the area after the
sun has been up for a couple of hours and some heating begins to
occur. Through out the day today we can expect scattered showers
and storms to increase in coverage as a cold front approaches
from the north. The most widespread rain is anticipated tonight
and Friday, as the cold front moves slowly across the region. Due
to the high moisture content of the atmosphere, and the presence
of the front, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times,
especially with stronger thunderstorms, or anywhere that multiple
storms move repeatedly across the same locations. Based on the
latest model data, the best potential for heavy rainfall should
be from late this afternoon through tonight.

Temperatures today will range from slightly below normal values
north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, to slightly above normal values
south of there. We can expect a dramatic cool down on Friday as
the front moves through the area and widespread clouds and rain
push across the region. Highs on Friday will likely only make to
around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Friday with a
typical summer upper level pattern. A stout ridge remains in the
west as another shortwave tracks southeast into the OH Valley. At
the surface, a front that has pushed south will begin to stall
leaving a boundary over eastern Kentucky for the day on Friday.
With the boundary in place sliding slowly to the southeast, some
instability, and ample moisture will be enough for thunderstorm
development over the far southeast along the TN and VA border.
Profiles indicating a dry layer will lead to another day of
concerns for possible strong storms with strong wind gusts. This
is indicated with the SPC outlook as well but organized severe at
this time seems unlikely. The amount of DCAPE with this convection
is somewhat concerning. Highlight of heavy rainfall potential
will likely be with the better lift and moisture swath further to
the east but a few heavy rainers are possible, especially with a
2.02 inch PWAT over the area. Especially with the highly sensitive
basins in the southeast a few minor flooding problems are not out
of the question. The last of the shower activity will exit the
area by Saturday morning.

After an active beginning to the extended, a mid level ridge axis
will shift east over the area. This combined with surface high
pressure directly over the OH Valley will keep the rest of the
extended dry through the middle of next week. Coupled with this,
the lack of return flow and below to average high temperatures
during the extended will keep comfortable weather in place through
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

VFR conditions should prevail the remainder of tonight and through
Thursday morning. Showers and storms are expected for first begin
moving into the area around 9Z this morning along and north of
I-64. This trend should continue through out the morning, with
showers and storms gradually increasing in coverage and sinking
further and further south across the area as a cold front
approaches from the north. More widespread showers and storms are
expected after 19Z at all the TAF sites. LOZ and SME should be the
last to see the widespread rain, with numerous showers and storms
not expected at those airports until 2 or 3Z Friday. MVFR
conditions will be possible with any storm or intense showers. The
rain will overspread the entire area this evening and tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR


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