Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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096
FXUS63 KJKL 240741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
341 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level
ridging in place. Mostly clear to clear skies will couple with
southerly flow aloft and promote above normal temperatures yet
again today, continuing into Monday as well. Overnight temps will
continue to be mild as well, very similar to what we are
experiencing early this morning. Fog has been slow to develop
early this morning, and does not seem as invasive or dense as
previous nights. Expect this trend to continue for the upcoming
night as well. Did not include dense wording for early this
morning or tonight, though some locations near bodies of water or
in the deepest valleys may see isolated dense patches. A few
afternoon CU will be possible, with soundings showing best support
across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on
the southern fringes of the high pressure system. Winds will
remain light and variable through the period, generally under 5
knots.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures,
as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the
region. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may reach the low to mid 80s
across the area, compared to normal highs in the mid 70s. Low
temperatures should also be quite warm to start the period, with
minimum values in the lower 60s expected. The rest of the week
should see a gradual return to normal or slightly below normal
temperatures, as a trough of low pressure aloft brings cooler air to
the region. Highs from Wednesday onward are forecast to max out in
the 70s for most locations. A few spots on Saturday may not climb
out of the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures each night from
Thursday night through the weekend are expected range from the upper
40s to the lower 50s. The latest model blend and individual runs of
the ECMWF and GFS models are all keeping the extended dry.
Therefore, decided to go with the model blend and keep the extended
dry for now. The overall weather pattern in the extended should
feature surface high pressure and warm temperatures to start, with a
trough aloft bringing cooler, but still dry, weather to the area
from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

High pressure just to our NE will remain the driving factor
through the TAF period. As has been the case for nights previous,
conditions are favorable for fog development, especially in the
valley locations. The setup will be very similar to last night,
with onset of fog starting after 6Z, eventually dropping to LIFR
or worse conditions in the valleys after 9Z and continuing
through 12Z. At the TAF sites, a little bit more tricky as to if
the fog will impact them. Based off of what occurred last night,
tried to trend accordingly for timing, hedging towards slightly
less impacts. Used tempo MVFR for JKL/SME/LOZ where it is possible
fog may not impact TAF sites at all. However, given the impacts
that occurred last night at SYM and SJS, trended towards
predominate MVFR and TEMPO IFR conditions here. Will adjust as
needed once fog begins setting up. Once fog dissipates this
morning, expect mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail
for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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