Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 011915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF CURVATURE TO THE LINE OF HEAVIEST
STORMS;...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH. THE MERCER AND LINCOLN COUNTY MESONET
SITES SAW WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AS THE LINE WENT THROUGH AND BATH
COUNTY SAW A GUST TO 41 MPH. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAX GUSTS STAY
AROUND 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MOST GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL DROP BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT GOT HAMMERED LAST NIGHT FROM THE HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE NOT
YET SEEN ANY TRAINING OF THE ECHOES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS WITH A VERY
WEAK THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MOST LIKELY...ANY HAIL WILL
STAY IN THE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE
TEMPERATURES WITH JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
CONSISTENTLY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING
UP BENEATH IT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF. AS THE
TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
WILL END BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING
EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALONG THE SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW
NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST. ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...AS THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH
READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AIR. THERE
IS A BIT OF CURVATURE TO THE LINE OF HEAVIEST STORMS;...SO WILL BE
WATCHING FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE GOES
THROUGH. THE MERCER AND LINCOLN COUNTY MESONET SITES SAW WIND GUSTS
OF 30 MPH AS THE LINE WENT THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAX GUSTS
WILL STAY BELOW 40 MPH AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER...HOWEVER THE STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT. SOME
TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 6 TO 8Z WHEN SOME MVFR MIST MAY BE
EFFECTING THE TAF SITES. LOOKING FOR VSBY DOWN TO ABOUT 2 SM AT THE
TAF SITES BUT DOWN TO 1/2SM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY. ONCE THE MIST CLEARS IN THE
MORNING...EXPECTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW.
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATER FOR TOMORROW THAN IT
WAS TODAY. THE TIMING OF STORMS FOR TOMORROW IS TOO
UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER SHOULD BE AFTER 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ






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