Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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013
FXUS63 KJKL 081336 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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