Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210330 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018

There have been enough breaks in the clouds over eastern Kentucky
to cool many of the valleys into the middle and upper 30s while
ridges are running about 10 degrees warmer. Have updated the sky
cover in the grids for this along with temperatures and dewpoints
through the night. These have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshened ZFP.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018

23z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west
pushing high pressure out of the area to the east. This pattern is
one of warm advection and is effectively eliminating much of the
remaining snow cover over eastern Kentucky as temperatures have
soared into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This is despite the ample
multi-level cloud cover today - aided by southwest winds of 5 to
10 mph. Meanwhile dewpoints are running in the upper 30s to lower
40s most places. All the light returns seen on the regional radars
have been well to the north and west of the CWA so far this
evening, but do expect more activity encroaching later tonight as
the low pressure area gets a bit closer. Have adjusted the
forecast mainly to adjust temperatures a bit warmer through the
evening and overnight per the latest conditions and guidance.
These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018

Current conditions across the OH Valley feature cloud cover
developing and moving into eastern Kentucky from the west.
Southwest flow continues to advect warm air into the area this
afternoon with some spots warming into the middle 50s for highs
today. Cloud cover will continue to thicken heading into tonight.
Heading into tonight, with low level moisture on the increase,
some rain will eventually develop into our area mainly in the
north as the next system develops out in the central Plains.

By the day on Sunday, a present but somewhat shallow moisture
layer will keep instances of rain over the area through the day.
The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of
the area taking the rainfall with it. With this, the warm sector
settles into the area for Sunday night with a continued inversion
at 700mb. Thus will keep Sunday night with above normal low temps
and dry as the cold front will not approach the area until Monday

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Monday with an
active progressive pattern in place. A well developed closed low
crosses the central Plains into the Mid MS Valley during the day
on Monday. During this time, a cold front crosses Kentucky into
the eastern portion of the state. Strong low level winds with this
approaching front will make for gusty southwest winds up to 30
mph possibly during the day on Monday and into Monday night.
Instability will be at a minimum as well with showers expected to
move into the area Monday morning and continue into Monday night.
The amount of dry air in place may keep precip from developing
into the area until the afternoon in some eastern locations. Given
the overall dry pattern, rainfall totals at this point look to be
less than a half an inch.

Cold frontal passage will likely occur Tuesday morning. Post
frontal winds look to be strong as well with some continued 30 mph
winds possible. Unlike previous air masses following passage,
this air mass lacks the extreme cold the previous ones have and a
change over to snow may only happen on top of Black Mountain. In
fact, lows on Wednesday morning will only drop into the mid 20s
for lows and highs on Wednesday being right around average in the
mid 40s. High pressure settles into the area by Wednesday and
stays in place through the end of the period with temps being
right around normal, if not slightly above. Forecast concerns
seem to be with the onset of rainfall on Monday with the dry low
levels to overcome. Any delay will cut down on rainfall totals. At
this point, the only concerning weather seems to be with the wind
potential Monday afternoon through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

MVFR to low VFR cigs will be an issue through the rest of the
evening as a warm front slowly tracks northward into the area.
With this, some spotty showers will eventually develop late though
little in the way of reduction to visibility is anticipated for
the TAF sites. For this, have included a VCSH and MVFR cigs in
most places. Winds will switch more to the south later tonight
with the passage of the warm front. Look for the threat of light
rain to continue into the day on Sunday before ending from
southwest to northeast by the end of the TAF period - returning
VFR conditions to all of eastern Kentucky.




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