Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 032345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS IN
LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TO ABOUT 06Z. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE IN THAT THE FORECAST
MIRRORS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT
OUR TERMINALS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN
HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY
COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY



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