Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 291825 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
Issued at 200 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
Just a quick update to fine tune PoPs and thunder chances through
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Also adjusted the
T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
14z sfc analysis shows a stacked low descending into the southern
Ohio Valley. This is bringing with it plenty of clouds and shower
bands. The bulk of the showers (and a few thunderstorms) are
moving north to northwest through the eastern portion of the CWA.
The morning fog has, for the most part, broken up or lifted
across the area. Temperatures are fairly uniform through eastern
Kentucky - in the middle to upper 50s with dewpoints similar.
Winds are generally from the north to northwest at around 5 mph.
Based on the latest near term guidance, expect the clouds and
shower threat to continue through the afternoon, largely affecting
the eastern and northern parts of the CWA. Will continue the
chance for thunderstorms into the evening with these showers. The
grids have been updated with these thoughts in mind along with
incorporating the latest obs and trends. The grids have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones.
UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
We should see a lull in precipitation this morning as the
lingering overnight showers exit the area. So have trended back
pops mainly in the western half of the forecast area throughout
the morning hours. Also refreshed the hourly temps to reflect
most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East
Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that
has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that
provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana
and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low
centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast
throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower
60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight
chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in
the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best
chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia.
Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with
the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible.
Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping
around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up
by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit
northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works
further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly
into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry
slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
The models remain in general agreement with an amplified long
wave pattern to continue through the period. The Ohio Valley
upper level low will gradually wobble its way back towards the
Great Lakes, and eventually get absorbed into the Westerlies by
early next week. Meanwhile, a deeper trough will be swinging
through the western CONUS, sharpening up a ridge across the middle
of the CONUS. This trough will move east into the Plains by the
middle of next week, slowly shoving the ridge east of the
Mississippi River. Model differences in timing and amplitude
remain; however, there is general agreement on a slower trend to
the pattern evolution by the middle of next week.
A few more showers will continue to be in the vicinity of eastern
Kentucky through Saturday night, as the upper low slowly pulls
away to the north. Generally dry weather can then be expected
through the rest of the period, as we come under the influence of
the ridge axis moving in from the west. Temperatures will be
modifying through the period. Highs to start the weekend will be
in the low to mid 70s, before reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s
by the middle of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
Cigs should continue to improve throughout the afternoon with vis
restrictions only due to showers or a stray storm. Later tonight,
dependent on how much low level moisture sticks around and how
many locations see rain today, fog will be possible. In addition
to the fog, cigs will also fall through the night with IFR and
MVFR to be common. Look for conditions to improve to VFR at most
sites Friday morning. Winds will remain around 5 knots or less
throughout the period.