Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Issued at 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

The forecast continues to be on track so far today. An update was
issued an hour or so ago to remove any outdated wording from the
zone forecast text product, and to freshen up the hourly grids
with the latest observational data. Aside from that, no other
changes to the forecast were required.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Just sent out an updated zone forecast text product to remove
mention of fog. Outside of a few small areas in our far east, fog
has dissipated across the area. Any remaining wisps of fog should
be completely gone by 1015 or 1030 am. The rest of the forecast
was on track. Will issue another update around noon today to
remove any remaining stale wording from the forecast text product
and to freshen up the hourly grids with the latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Forecast appears on track early this morning. Made a few tweaks
to grids for hourly trends. No other changes to the forecast
package ATTM.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Short wave trough moving across the Northern Tier and eventually
through the Great Lakes will flatten the mid/upper level ridging
in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term. A storm
complex currently rounding the western periphery of this ridge
will remain well west and northwest of our area today. However,
the gradual suppression of the ridge and increasing moisture in
return flow around the ridge will allow for a growing threat of
rain through the short term period, first across the Cumberland
Plateau, possibly brushing our far southwestern zones later today
and then over most of the forecast area Sunday.

For sensible weather, summer like weather with hot and humid
conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can
not be ruled out across the far southwest and over the higher
terrain to the southeast this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much more of the area Sunday.
Look for afternoon highs in the low 90s and tonights lows once
again dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of
the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air
mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The
upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period,
and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it
will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight
drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper
level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in
air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold
front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday
evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as
this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a
continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as
surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through around 5Z
tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds also on tap. More
fog is expected to begin forming between 6 and 8Z for most of the
area. Due to dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon,
the fog should not be quite as extensive tonight, with less dense
fog expected as well. The best time for fog will be between 8 and
12Z tomorrow, with the most extensive fog expected at SME and SJS.
Mostly MVFR conditions will be expected, with a few spots perhaps
seeing IFR conditions in the worst of the fog. Any fog that does
form should be gone by between 13 and 14Z on Sunday. Isolated
showers and storms will also be possible today along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway. The coverage should be minimal enough to
make mention of thunder in the TAFs unwarranted at this time.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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