Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 100355 AAB

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1055 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 1055 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

The stratocu has spread back to the south again across much of
eastern KY. Hourly sky grids have been adjusted to account for
this though a decreasing trend toward morning has been maintained
with high pressure building into the area. Confidence in this
timing remains low however. Corresponding hourly T grids have
been adjusted as well with a later drop for the more eastern and
southeastern locations where the stratocu lingers. Min T in some
areas of the southwest have been adjusted down a bit based on
recent observations.

UPDATE Issued at 813 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Stratocu has continued to generally diminish from southwest to
northeast across the area. Recent satellite images has some areas
further south than an hour or so ago however, so confidence in
continued clearing overnight is not extremely high. However, a
general decrease from south to north should continue overnight.
Temperatures will be cold, into the teens everywhere, though
degree of clearing will determine how far into the teens northern
and eastern locations fall. Other than fine tuning sky and
temperature grids, no other changes were needed at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to build east through the
night. While the primary high will remain in Canada, but lobes of
the high will progress east into the region and will crest around
09 to 12Z time frame. This combined with cold air mass in place
and clearing skies will lead widespread teens across the region.
The valleys in the SW will have the best chance of seeing lower
teens given the high timing and placement. We will probably see a
few clouds in the north where Stratocu remains this afternoon and
perhaps you could see a flurry. However the moisture in the growth
layer is not nearly as much as advertised for last nights

Surface high will move east through the day Saturday and upper
level pattern will flatten out. While most of the area will get
above freezing some spots could remain around freezing. There will
also be some high to mid clouds sliding across the region. That
said even though the high continues to shift east would think we
could see upper teens in the far eastern valley locales once again
for Saturday night. The question will be clouds given moisture
moves across the Northern Ohio Valley region, but the precip stays
well north of eastern KY through Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Longer range models continue to have a very cold look with cross
polar flow aimed into the northern U.S. by the end of the period.
Someone is going to get really cold, but questions remain about
how far south the cold air makes it and whether or not it arrives
with snow.

First things first, a shortwave passing from the northern Plains
Sunday into the Great Lakes region on Monday will force a cold
front across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Model
timing differences are diminishing and overall timing is slowing
some with the bulk of the precipitation expected Sunday night into
Monday morning. This should be all rain with good warm advection
in advance of the front. In fact, temps will likely rise Sunday
night but will have to watch our eastern valleys as the dry
airmass preceding the system will cool quickly if there are any
breaks in the clouds during the evening. This could set us up for
some patchy freezing rain at onset, but that is only a remote
possibility right now. At least another half an inch of rain is
likely to fall with this system before it exits on Monday.

Forecast details for the Tuesday through Friday period remain
rather murky, especially with precipitation chances. Model
agreement is actually not that bad with temperatures, as the 12z
runs of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all show an arctic cold front passing
through Wednesday or Wednesday night. The GFS moves this front
through with some rain, followed by a brief shot of snow. The
ECMWF remains largely precip free. Both models have wavered little
with their solutions over the past couple of days. The SuperBlend
guidance continues to offer a nice compromise offering a small
chance of rain on Tuesday followed by a 30-40 percent chance of
rain/snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a lingering
chance of snow into Wednesday night. Will keep Thursday and Friday
dry for now with well below normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

Clearing of MVFR stratocu is gradually working north and
northeast across the area. LOZ and SME have went to VFR with
clearing nearing JKL. The current trends support SJS clearing out
after JKL between 1Z and 2Z, with the stratocu persisting longest
at SYM to around 5Z or so. Winds of 5 to 10KT on some ridgetop
locations should decrease to 5KT or less over the first 3 hours as
locations decouple. Winds will remain light thereafter.




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