Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231959
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Severe weather and flash flood threat continue this evening.
Center of tropical depression Cindy has moved into western KY
while cold front now stretches from southeast MI through northwest
IN to OK. The low pressure center will continue to move ENE while
the front advances southeast. The interaction of these systems
will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area this evening and
early tonight.

Higher precipitable water is now advancing into eastern KY in
advance of the remnants of Cindy. Precipitable water will
increase to 2 to 2.25 inches so showers and thunderstorms will be
efficient rain producers. Rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per
hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. It does
appear the heavy rain threat will mainly be confined to the time
frame before midnight, but will allow the flash flood watch to
continue as is, though it will likely be able to be cancelled
early.

As noted earlier today the surface to 1 KM storm relative helicity
will approach or exceed 400 m2/s2 this afternoon and evening. Some
rotating storms are likely and with rather low lifting
condensation levels a rotating storm could result in a brief
tornado touchdown. While breaks in the clouds this afternoon have
allowed for low level lapse rates to increase, mid level
instability remains rather limited. While a damaging wind and
tornado threat exist, any occurrences of severe weather are
expected to be isolated.

After the frontal passage tonight cooler and drier air will begin
to move into the area for the weekend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

The long term portion of the forecast will be highlighted by a
stretch of dry weather with well below normal temperatures
resulting from a mean upper level ridge in the western part of the
U.S. and a trough in the eastern part of the country. 850 mb
temperatures will drop to the single digits Celsius early next
week, and we`ll see a multi-day stretch with maximum temperatures
in the 70s and and minimums in the 50s. Dewpoints will be around
50 degrees for the first part of the week. By the end of the week
the trough will be lifting out and flow will become more zonal and
temperatures will warm and dewpoints will increase back into the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Conditions will deteriorate late this afternoon and into the
evening as tropical depression Cindy and an approaching cold
front interact to bring showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
area. Early this afternoon the center of the tropical depression
was moving from northwest TN into southwest KY, while a cold front
extended from MI though northwest Indiana, central IL and on into
northeast OK. The low pressure system will continue to move ENE
while the the cold front sags southwest. Showers and thunderstorms
will become more widespread as the low pressure system and front
move closer.

Even ahead of the showers and thunderstorms MVFR ceilings will
prevail across the area, although many areas will lift to VFR for
a time this afternoon. Once the rain moves in ceilings will
gradually lower with some areas becoming IFR. Once the rain exits
tonight there will likely be a period of fog and low ceilings. The
cold front will be southeast of the area by Saturday morning and
conditions will improve quickly with VFR conditions expected
across most of the area by late morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH



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