Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261942
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

DIURNAL LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LARGE POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS NEW CU DEVELOPING OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. HAVE BLENDED MID
MORNING OBS INTO THE LATE DAY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH
A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PERIOD
STARTED...ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF PRECIP
CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY EXITS TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH THE
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IFR IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. AFTER
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
INCLUSION IN TAFS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL



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