Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220744
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
344 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now
bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW
winds and high pressure to build east. Latest SAT data does show
some high cloud streaming in and therefore did keep a few more
clouds in the forecast today from what guidance was suggesting. Do
think this will be mostly high clouds at or around 20 KFT. Did
keep a small area of slight POPs this morning, otherwise based on
radar trends most will remain dry this morning as drier air
advances east.

Tonight an upper level shortwave across the lower MS River Valley
and 850mb jet aid in cyclogenesis across Lower MS and AL. The
surface low will deepen as it ejects into the Carolinas. There
remains some uncertainty in how much or any moisture can make it
north into the region. Perhaps the biggest issue will be cloud
cover and how much. This will have implications on temperatures
and therefore held back more on temp splits in the east and
southeast. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland
valley locales. Do introduce slight POPs in the far SE toward
dawn, but uncertain if this will in fact play out as mentioned
above.

This complication continues Tuesday, as a surface low tracks NE.
The ECMWF and some CAMs suggest showers and perhaps a few storms
will be possible in the far SE. Given that could not go completely
dry, but do think that best shot of seeing anything will remain
in the far SE toward VA. This as convection to the south and east
will likely cutoff much of the moisture into eastern KY.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

Available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of
eastern Kentucky this hour. The more robust convection is nearer
to the Cumberland Valley region. These will slide east and bring
brief drops in CIGs and VIS over the next hour. Overall most
sites will see drying conditions and improving CIGs and VIS
through the period. The caveat may be the deeper valley locales
where fog could form in areas that saw more rain today. Otherwise
a surface high to our west will build in behind cold front moving
across the area to lead to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
TAF period. Winds will remain light through the period and will
veer to the west overtime behind the front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ


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