Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210802
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
302 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

The models are suggesting that most of eastern Kentucky should
experience dry weather today, due to progressively southeasterly
flow and the downslope warming and drying that will occur across
the area as a result. It appears that the best moisture associated
with an approaching weather system will remain just off to the
south of our area today. This, combined with the downslope
warming and therefore drying mentioned above, should be enough to
keep precipitation at bay for all but our southernmost and
easternmost counties today. After a brief lull, widespread
rainfall is expected to move in from the south and southwest this
evening through the end of the day on Sunday. An area of low
pressure is forecast to move out of the southern Mississippi
valley and across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and
tomorrow. As this system moves east, it is forecast to strengthen,
and therefore slow down, as it moves across our area. The slow
movement of this system, combined with a steady flow of warm moist
air off the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to widespread rain showers
across eastern Kentucky to finish out the weekend. We may even see
a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow due to the strength of
the passing low and the presence of weak elevated instability.
Rain could be locally heavy at times.

Temperatures will remain well above normal this weekend, with
highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s today, and the
lower 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s.
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will be on tap as well. Winds should
generally be out of the south or southeast at around 5 mph during
the period

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017

The extended forecast period begins on Sunday with a continued
active pattern in place across the CONUS. On Sunday, a strong upper
low crosses into the lower MS valley as it travels along the Gulf
Coast before lifting NE into the Appalachians. Current track takes
the heaviest precip along the spine of the Appalachians and into
the headwaters of eastern Kentucky. Models have been pretty
consistent on this track for the past few runs. In fact, as this
feature develops and lifts north, instability will still be
present continuing to support convection, mainly slight chance,
through the day on Sunday. As this feature exits Tuesday morning
and colder air filters in behind it, some of the exiting showers
will change to a rain and snow mix Tuesday morning on top of the
higher elevations but with very little accumulation expected.

Heading into midweek next week, the next wave tracks across the
central Plains and into the Midwest bringing a round of light
showers into eastern Kentucky. Both the GFS and Euro agree with a
drying trend to this feature as QPF amounts will likely be less than
a tenth of rainfall for Wednesday and Wednesday night. However,
following this feature will be a more seasonal airmass filtering
into the area by Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a return of
northwest flow and a period of snow showers possible Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Overall, a trend to more normal
temperatures is expected towards the end of next week if not
cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail during most of the upcoming
TAF period. Middle and high level cloud cover will continue to
overspread the area tonight and most of Saturday, as a weather
system approaches from the southwest. Visibilities should also
remain largely unhindered as winds back south/southeasterly and
the mid and high clouds keep radiational cooling at bay. Winds
look to remain near or below 5 knots as clouds increase and lower
Saturday ahead of the next round of rainfall, likely arriving
later Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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