Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 172038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 438 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017

A rather strong storm system near the upper Great Lakes was
bringing a flow of warm and humid air to the area ahead of a cold
front today. An upper level wave was also approaching from the
west. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
most significant area of showers and thunderstorms was over
southern OH and northern KY late this afternoon. Other storms
tailed southwestward int western KY. The most significant winds
aloft were also located to our north, and that is where the
greatest threat of severe weather is. Models suggest that the
precip developing over northwest and western KY will progress
into our area tonight, but be on the decline as it moves through
late tonight. The actual cold frontal passage and change in air
mass is not expected until Friday, and additional showers and
thunderstorms can not be ruled out ahead of the front on Friday,
especially in southeast KY where the front will arrive the latest.
Friday night the entire area should be dry as surface ridging
builds in from the west. The drier air mass should also allow for
somewhat cooler lows.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017

The period will begin with the upper level trough axis swinging
across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. After this heights rise and
pattern flattens through Tuesday before another trough digs into
the eastern US to round out the period. The models are in decent
overall agreement upper level wise through the long term period.
This initial trough will bring a small chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the far north Saturday afternoon. Then a break
will come for late Saturday into early Monday. There remains some
question on what will develop for Monday and right now there is
only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the
Mountain Parkway in the afternoon. However, this is really only
showing in one model solution and therefore confidence remains
low. Then the next trough will approach by Tuesday and bring best
chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This trough will swing east and push a cold front
through the region, with chances lessening through the day on
Thursday. That said, there is some disagreement on how much the
front pushes through in the guidance and this could lead to
changes in the timing and coverage on Thursday. Temperature
through the period will remain near to above average for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017

Scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the forecast area at the start of the
period. Very localized IFR conditions were likely present in the
heavier rain. Elsewhere, conditions were VFR. The current precip
will likely slowly exit to the east late this afternoon and early
evening. However, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible tonight, especially in the northern part of the area
between about 03z and 09z. IFR conditions due largely to low
ceilings are then expected to develop for most locations overnight
and persist into Friday morning. VFR should return toward the end
of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL



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