Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF



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