Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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759
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
238 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Gradient continues to tighten up between a strong ridge exiting to
our east and an approaching cold front from the northwest. The
increasing gradient has allowed for a nice range in temperatures
across east Kentucky early this morning with decoupled eastern
valleys sitting in the low to mid 20s and mixed ridges rising
through the 40s. The southwest flow will help to pump in some much
milder air into the region today with afternoon highs reaching
around 60. Surface moisture will also come up through the day and
this could lead to a widely isolated shower in the vicinity of the
higher peaks in southeast Kentucky (mainly Black Mountain). Will
carry a 20 percent chance of rain there although the 00z NAM
really the only model supporting the rain chances.

The models are in very good agreement regarding the cold frontal
passage time and also in keeping eastern Kentucky dry tonight.
Based on how temperatures responded behind the front on Sunday,
and this being a much milder airmass overall, have gone higher
with temperatures post frontal late tonight. The ADJMAV was a
good starting spot for the lows tonight. NAM and GFS BUFR
soundings also support some low clouds with an inversion post
frontal and the CONSMOS was a great starting point. Unlike the
past several stratus events, this time around, we should see a
nice surge of dry air arrive on Wednesday and that should scour
out any low clouds likely by midday or early afternoon. With
sunshine returning by the afternoon, we should see highs climb
through the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to rule across the CONUS through the period. Ridging will
remain the dominant feature across the Desert Southwest, with
persistent troughing across The Pacific Northwest and the East.
Differences crop up more in the smaller scale features, so a blend
of the guidance was a good compromise.

The resultant weather for eastern Kentucky will be dry, with
temperatures overall averaging below normal. Cool high pressure
will build in across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s, with lower 20s in
some of the cooler eastern valleys. Highs for the holiday will be
in the mid to upper 40s. The surface high will shift to the east
through Friday morning, with eastern valleys likely dropping into
the mid 20s once again, as southwest winds engage.

A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north,
closer to the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures
will average near normal across our area, with highs in the mid
50s. Another cool down will follow this front, with highs reducing
to the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the end of the forecast
period. Winds will increase out of the southwest, mainly after
daybreak, as the gradient increases ahead of a cold front. Wind
gusts up to 20 knots will be possible. Gusts will subside this
evening. As the front pushes through late tonight, some low clouds
may develop into the area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS



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