Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 250525 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE
CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST. WEB CAMS AND SEVERAL OBS THROUGH THE AREA
SUGGEST THAT THE FOG IS ALREADY PRETTY THICK IN MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO
ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS...ZONES...AND HWO. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT ALONG WITH THE GRIDS. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER...T...AND
TD GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO
REFLECT EARLY THAN EXPECTED ONSET OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO ASSESS IF
ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED LATER IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOR
NOW...THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT
HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND
GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FEW
DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADVECTION OF VERY WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD COOL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULD YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB
AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SEVERE WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO ARRIVE. EVEN
SO...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES AWAY AND GETS SCOURED OUT. HAVE
CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE AT MIDWEEK...AND PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH...AND
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERATE PRECIP...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY...HAVE OPTED TO USE NOTHING HIGHER THAN
20 PERCENT POPS...AND ONLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HALTING AND STAGGERED THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
TREND IN THE CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE DOWNWARD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TAKEN THEM DOWN TO VLIFR FOR A TIME TOWARD DAWN
WITH SOME TEMPOS ON THE WAY DOWN. THE FOG WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING
WITH JUST SOME VFR FAIR WEATHER CU LEFT BEHIND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





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