Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 180553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1253 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

The forecast is on track tonight. The latest obs were ingested
into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. No update
is planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1126 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

Patchy drizzle will continue across the area over the next few
hours, as winds veer around to the west northwest. Clearing has
taken place across western Kentucky, and have freshened up the sky
cover trends through dawn. Still think that the more upslope-like
flow across our area should keep the better clearing from working
in until a bit later. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

Steady rain has exited off to the east, with some light returns
working in from the Bluegrass, as a short wave trough moves east
across the Ohio Valley. Have gone ahead and dropped the Flood
Watch early. Expect mostly cloudy skies to remain in place, with
some drizzle across the area through around midnight, before
gradually diminishing. Freshened up the hourly temperatures and
dew points, which should steadily cool off through the night. Lows
in the low to mid 30s look on target. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

An area of moderate to heavy rain continues to move across the
area although the back edge of the rain is now working in from
central KY and TN in advance of a shortwave trough. Some snow or
mixed rain and snow has been falling across far northern Fleming
County where reports of amounts approaching an inch were received.
As noted the precipitation has already tapered off over much of
central KY with rain rates near the TN and VA borders having
decreased over the past hour as well.

The area of rain should affect the VA border counties for about
another two hours and should be over around 7 PM with rain and
any mixed precipitation tapering off and ending over far western
and northwestern locations over the next hour or so as the
shortwave trough moves east and deeper moisture and lift begin to
depart. Low level moisture will linger a bit longer well into the
night with low clouds and stratus build down fog anticipated in
the evening, followed by gradual clearing from west to east late
tonight and into the day on Sunday. Diurnal ranges will be limited
tonight with low dewpoint depressions and clouds lingering even
as sfc high pressure begins to build in. Lows should be at or jut
above the freezing mark for most locations.

Along with sfc high pressure move east across the OH Valley mid
level height rises are expected in the wake of the shortwave
trough late tonight and into the day on Sunday. The airmass will
dry out considerably as well. Sunshine should be abundant for
most of the day, with temperatures warming up to above normal
levels.

Another shortwave trough will begin to approach late in the period
with a warm front lifting north toward the area on Sunday night.
Initially though, there should be a relative lack of clouds in
the evening which should support min T for many central and
eastern valley locations near midnight. These locations will
likely experience min T for Sunday night near 40 if the upper and
perhaps mid 30s. At this point did not go quite as low as coop mos
guidance form the GFS might suggest which was low to mid 30s for
these normally colder valley locations, opting to trend on the
order of 6 to 8 degrees below Superblend for these normally colder
locations. Isentropic lift in advance of the warm front and a
return of deeper moisture for the Gulf Coast states should be
sufficient for another round of showers to encroach on the area
after midnight on Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

A warm front will lift north at the start of the period with some
showers ongoing to start the day Monday. However, as the ridge
over the eastern CONUS builds, heights will shoot upwards early in
the week. With downslope flow and very anomalous high heights
over the area on Tuesday, we could be looking at easily breaking
some record highs and perhaps all time February record highs. The
February record highs sit at 79 for Jackson and 81 at London. We
have a pretty good chance to break that at Jackson, but London may
be closer.

A slow moving front will eventually push east by midweek, with
rain chances spreading back into the area. Instability doesn`t
look fantastic, but shear is great. Thus, we could see a potential
for a few strong storms come Wednesday and Wednesday night,
especially if the instability trends upwards. This will be
something to monitor over the next several days, especially with
the record warmth already in place across the region. Still some
question how long the frontal zone may linger over the area late
next week, so will maintain some rain chances through the end of
the week and into next weekend. With ground already very
saturated with near record February rainfall and rivers running
high into early next week, more flooding concerns may return by
mid to late next week. Looks like the mild weather will continue
through the remainder of the extended as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

Expect IFR or lower clouds, with some very light rain/drizzle
across the area through 9 or 10z. Ceilings should then lift to
MVFR, before scattering out after 12z, as high pressure builds in
across the region. Winds will veer to the west at 5 to 10 kts
tonight, before diminishing and becoming more variable into
Sunday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR


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