Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 012055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW



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