Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031814 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DOT THE AREA
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AS WELL TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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