Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 291333
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS BROUGHT THE STRATUS INTO FAR NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LINGERING VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...PASSING
CIRRUS SHOULD BE A FEATURE AT TIMES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM A CLOSED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO GET ABSORBED INTO THIS TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WAS WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
TRACK INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE TRIALING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOW STRATUS BEHIND
THE LOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER IS NEARING THE
FAR NORTHER PART OF THE AREA ATTM. THE LOW STRATUS IS SOUTH OF CVG
AND HAS CREPT INTO HTS...BUT SO FAR REMAINS NORTH OF FGX AND SYM.
MEANWHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA ARE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY FOG. IN A FEW LOCATIONS IT IS
LIKELY DENSE AS INDICATED BY OBS FROM KI35.

THE WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES HELPS TO TEMPORARILY SEND
THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS OUT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY
EXPERIENCE THE LOW STRATUS ADVECTING IN BEFORE IT RECEDES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WHERE VALLEY FOG IS OCCURRING IT SHOULD ALSO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO TODAY
BEING MILD WITH DRY.

WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS...AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND BEGINS TO MEANDER. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE SFC LOW NEARS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE
CONVECTION MAY BE INITIALLY SLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE VA AND WV
BORDER COUNTIES DUE TO INITIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THIS ALSO COULD
CUT INTO RAINFALL INITIALLY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN AND MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD PICK UP A
QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD
AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING DOMINATES.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE
AGAIN TONIGHT. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF MORE QUICKLY THAN RIDGES DURING THE
EVENING ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO THOSE VALLEYS
WARMING TOWARD MORNING WHILE WETBULBING FROM PRECIPITATION COULD
OTHER LOCATIONS AND LEAD TO MORE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES BY DAWN.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO THE
COLDEST READINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 ON SATURDAY AND THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE
DAYTIME...LIKELY PERSISTING PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
BRIEF LULL MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE SHEAR
BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL...SEVERE THREAT MAY HINDER ON BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL WITH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ONLY AROUND 8KFT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME
LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WHILE
ECMWF BRINGS IN OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL PLAN TO STICK
WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WHICH WILL KEEP FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WEAK AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME CHILLY
AIR...AND PERHAPS SOME FROST TO SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS...BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT. RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY WEEKS END AND MAY
BRING US BACK TO A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE NON TAF SITES INITIALLY WITH MVFR TO IFR FOG. THIS
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z...WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING IN
ALL LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE DEPARTING LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHER TAF
SITES BY THE 9Z TO 12Z PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP



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