Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260644
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Showers have been struggling to make it into eastern Kentucky this
evening. The latest higher resolution model guidance continues to
support a slower progression of the more substantial shower
activity through the rest of the night. As such, have tightened
up the gradient of POPs into tomorrow morning, with locations in
the east likely not measuring until well after sunrise. Have also
reduced thunder chances, keeping only a mention west of I-75
towards dawn. Some partial clearing has also worked in across
portions of the area, allowing for a 10 to 15 degree ridge/valley
split in places. This partial clearing looks to continue over the
next few hours at least, so have dropped the valley lows in the
east to around 50 degrees. Thicker clouds will eventually move
back in, and should allow for the temperatures to rebound across
these locations.

UPDATE Issued at 742 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The forecast is looking pretty good so far this evening. The
latest radar imagery showing showers and a few storms pushing
across portions of central Kentucky. A few of these should begin
working their way into southwestern portions of eastern Kentucky
between 0 and 1Z, per the latest forecast. The more widespread
rain is still expected later tonight into early Sunday morning.
The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The short term period looks to be quite active, with very good
chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow
night. A cold front that will be moving across the central and
southern Mississippi valley tonight will be our weather maker.
This boundary will interact with the warm and moist air mass that
is already in place across the region and will spark showers and
scattered thunderstorms as it moves quickly across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. The system should be progressive enough to keep
hydro issues at a minimum, although rain could be locally heavy
for short periods of time with any thunderstorms or intense
showers. The rain should taper off across the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning, but a few showers will likely
linger across the area, as another weather system will be
following on the heels of the one that moves through the area
tonight. A few of the storms on Sunday may contain strong gusty
winds and small hail. Temperatures will continue to be well above
normal, with lows in the 50s the next two nights and highs around
70 on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The period is expected to begin with a shortwave trough that will
have affected the region in the short term departing to the
northeast while another shortwave trough will near the Mid MS and
lower OH Valley regions. In fact, an upper ridge axis is expected
to be moving across the area at the start of the period. The
region should begin the period in the warm sector as the near term
boundary is expected to have stalled out across the area as
surface low pressure moves northeast toward the Ozark region
before reaching near the confluence of the OH and TN Rivers on
Monday evening. The shortwave trough should work across the area
on Monday night into early on Tuesday with the surface low
tracking northwest of the area. Once the low is northeast of the
area on Tuesday, the cold front is expected to move across the
area. Thus, the period should begin on the unsettled side though
much of Monday could end up dry with a relative lull in between
the shortwaves. Shower chances will increase on Monday evening and
into Monday night and linger into Tuesday night as the upper
trough moves through the area and the cold front pushes south and
east. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Monday night.

From late Tuesday into early on Thursday, surface and upper level
ridging will move in and bring drier weather for midweek. The GFS
and ECMWF runs differ in the strength of the upper ridge with the
ECMWF generally more amplified. Thus how mild the airmass will be
in uncertain with the GFS about 8 degrees F or more colder than
the ECMWF for Wed to Thu. At this point, it appears that
temperatures will average above normal both days and did not stray
from the in between Superblend during that period given the
uncertainty.

The next in a series of closed lows or shortwaves is expected to
have moved from the Four Corners region to Plains from Tuesday
through Thursday. Uncertainty remains in the details with this
system, but the consensus is for another period of shower chances
by Thursday night into Friday possibly lingering into Saturday
pending its strength and timing. Despite the rain shower chances
the second half of next week should average above normal for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

VFR conditions prevailed across the JKL forecast area at the
start of the period. An area of rain extended from southern IN and
central KY south toward the Gulf coast. While individual
cells/elements were moving northward, the entire area was slowly
shifting eastward. This leading edge of precip was currently
arriving around KEKQ, and will cross the JKL forecast area from
west to east this morning. A period of MVFR can be expected with
the precip in most areas. It will taper off to scattered showers
from west to east between about 12Z and 17Z. A resurgence of
precip may occur with heating/destabilization this afternoon, with
some thunderstorms also possible. Poor conditions can briefly be
expected in any showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, but outside of the precip VFR should prevail. The showers
and thunderstorms will diminish tonight.

Winds will pick up from the south to southwest during the day,
with gusts around 20 kt.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL


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