Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1258 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

High pressure continues to provide warm and sunny conditions
across the Bluegrass state. However, a few mid to high clouds
will stream across the region from the southeast from time to
time. No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Most areas of seen the fog mix out this morning. We will be left
with a few highs clouds and warming temperatures through the
afternoon. Based on the soundings we could mix into some dryer air
so will monitor for lowering dewpoints. This could also decrease
the chances of fog tonight. Only minor changes needed for the
latest obs and trend at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Fog is continuing to show up well in the deeper river valleys
according to the GOES-16 fog channel. We have issued a statement
in the HWO as well as a Graphical Nowcast to cover the dense fog
concerns through the early morning. Fog is already starting to
lift into a couple of the TAF sites, and will continue to lift and
dissipate over the next few hours. Loaded in the latest
observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with
current conditions. All grids have been published and sent to
NDFD/web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level
ridging in place. Mostly clear to clear skies will couple with
southerly flow aloft and promote above normal temperatures yet
again today, continuing into Monday as well. Overnight temps will
continue to be mild as well, very similar to what we are
experiencing early this morning. Fog has been slow to develop
early this morning, but is now showing up well on the GOES-16 Fog
Channel, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Expect this trend to
continue for the upcoming night as well. After initially not
including dense wording in the forecast, went back and added in it
for this morning based on the latest fog channel trends and
reports from a NWS forecaster. Have also resent forecast products
to account for this change to dense wording as well.

Once fog dissipates today and Monday, expect mostly clear
conditions to take hold for the rest of the day. A few afternoon
CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support
across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the
southern fringes of the high pressure system. Winds will remain
light and variable through the period, generally under 5 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures,
as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the
region. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may reach the low to mid 80s
across the area, compared to normal highs in the mid 70s. Low
temperatures should also be quite warm to start the period, with
minimum values in the lower 60s expected. The rest of the week
should see a gradual return to normal or slightly below normal
temperatures, as a trough of low pressure aloft brings cooler air to
the region. Highs from Wednesday onward are forecast to max out in
the 70s for most locations. A few spots on Saturday may not climb
out of the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures each night from
Thursday night through the weekend are expected range from the upper
40s to the lower 50s. The latest model blend and individual runs of
the ECMWF and GFS models are all keeping the extended dry.
Therefore, decided to go with the model blend and keep the extended
dry for now. The overall weather pattern in the extended should
feature surface high pressure and warm temperatures to start, with a
trough aloft bringing cooler, but still dry, weather to the area
from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Dense valley fog, LIFR or lower, is ongoing early this
morning across much of eastern Kentucky. So far, TAF sites have
remained unphased, with the exception of KSJS which has received
some fog lifting from the valleys over the last hour. It is
possible that this might briefly occur at the other TAF sites as
well through 13Z. After fog dissipates this morning, expect
mostly clear VFR conditions through the rest of the day. Winds
will be light and variable through the period, generally under 5
knots. As we head into the overnight tonight, expect a very
similar fog set up to that of last night/early this morning, with
patchy to areas of dense LIFR or lower fog in the deeper river
valleys. Given the lack of fog impacts so far this morning at the
TAF sites, chose to leave mention of fog out of TAFs overnight at
this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW


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