Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240257
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1057 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

Current conditions across the area feature now spotty showers
moving through the area from the south and southeast. Despite
trending less shower activity currently, present shower activity
and excessive runoff still ongoing will keep continued flooding in
localized areas. In addition to this, showers to the south in TN
continue to move north and 00Z models hint at the probability of
the parent low over the south pivoting to track up the east coast.
This will bring another limited area of showers over the area.
There may be a few more instances of localized flooding through
the night so matched up with neighboring offices and extended the
Flood Watch through 12Z. In addition to this change, also added
fog to the forecast. A new zfp has been sent with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

Updated the forecast to input the latest observations and trend
them into the evening. Made some tweaks to the pops through the
night but overall changes were minimal as the pattern remains
pretty steady as a widespread area of light to moderate shower
activity tracks north through the area. Thus, no zfp updates will
be needed at this time. The next update will include an update to
the Flood Watch as down south, more shower activity will continue
to stream north into the area and likely an extention to the
watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

An upper level low continues to deepen as it pushes across the
Tennessee valley and into the Deep South this afternoon. It will be
slow to progress eastward however as it remains near steady
strength, slowly traversing the Deep South through the day Monday,
before finally pushing off the South Carolina coast into the
Atlantic Ocean Tuesday morning, then proceeding to ride up the Mid
Atlantic Coast through the day Tuesday. It will continue to ride up
the coastline well into the extended period.

Currently, eastern KY is situated on the NE side of the upper level
low, with abundant southerly flow in place in the upper levels.
However the surface low is somewhat displaced from the upper level
low, currently moving SE across Georgia. This is keeping llvl flow
out of the east which will persist through tomorrow. This shift in
winds is keeping instability out of the region, and temperatures
unseasonably cool. However, abundant moisture continues to wrap
around this system, impacting much of Kentucky and points southward.
Rain showers have been persistent throughout the day, and will
continue into the overnight hours, before the surface low finally
pulls far enough to the southeast to push best moisture out of the
state by Monday. That being said, enough moisture will linger to
keep cloud cover across the region. Can`t rule out a few isolated
showers during peak heating in the afternoon hours according to the
latest Hi res ARW and NMM, especially in the eastern portion of the
state, so did leave in some slight chance pops through the
afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer than today but still less
than seasonable normals, generally in the mid 60s.

The upper level low will push southeast of the state by Monday
night, allowing increasing heights across the region heading into
Tuesday morning. Drier air will finally start penetrating the region
with clouds starting to thin out throughout the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

The slow moving storm system which brought rain over the weekend
will be centered over the Carolinas at the start of the period. Any
straggling showers on the northwest edge of the system will be on
the way out. Primarily dry weather can be expected for the first
couple days of the period as ridging aloft passes over.

The next system to affect us will already be over the middle of the
CONUS on Wednesday, with the upper level trough making its deepest
southward dive over OK/TX by late Wednesday, before lifting out to
the northeast. The cold front trailing from the associated surface
low is expected to reach our area on Thursday. Models are not gung-
ho on precip with it, but do show generalized light amounts. Have
carried mostly chance POPs for Thursday, in line with MOS. The GFS
makes a cleaner fropa than the ECMWF, and hence has at least a day
of dry weather to follow. The ECMWF is faster with a potential
return of precip. Have split the difference and continued slight
chance and chance POPs for Thursday night into Friday night.

During the weekend an upper level ridge builds over the southeast
CONUS and brings warmer temps, but tends to subdue convection.
Models show some light precip developing on Sunday over/near the
Appalachians during the heat of the day. If anything occurs, chances
are it would be localized, and only 20-30% POPs were used.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

IFR to below IFR conditions will be in place through nearly the
entire TAF period with near or at field mins for cigs expected.
This is due to a storm system lifting north up the east coast.
Thus will also expect some constant changes in visibility as
numerous showers move through eastern Kentucky. Shower activity
should come to an end by the end of the TAF period with cigs
lifting to MVFR in most locations. Winds will be northeast and
light most of the time. SYM, being the most northwest location may
only see some MVFR cigs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Monday for KYZ079-080-083>088-
110-113-115>118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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