Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300724
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

BLENDED LATE NIGHT OBS INTO THE FORECAST...AND STARTED TO
INCORPORATE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR WIND AND SKY COVER. FULL UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED MAINLY
TO TWEAK POPS AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THE REMAINS OF AN EARLIER MCS IS FADING OUT THROUGH
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS THE CORE OF IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS CLUSTER HAVE OVERSPREAD EAST KENTUCKY AND SHOULD
HELP MAKE FOR RATHER UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
STATE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND ALONG WITH
ADDING IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR T/TD/WIND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND AN UPDATED HWO
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A
DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER
PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK
INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING
FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR
HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS
BECOME PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A
DETERIORATION TO GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
IN REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL



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