Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Deep layer low pressure system resides across the Carolina coast
line and perhaps a weak surface trough extending northwestward
into KY. Given the low pressure location we are seeing easterly
flow across the region and mostly cloudy skies for most. There
have been some breaks here and there, but the majority of the
region remains overcast. This will lead to a more complicated
forecast tonight, as some of this stratus could end up building
down. This as deep low slowly moves north and east and weak upper
level ridge tries to nudge into the region. Overall based on the
trends will lean a bit lower in the SW and better cloud coverage
as you move NE. Given that did keep fog going in the Lake
Cumberland region tonight, given the higher potential for breaks
in the clouds. These clouds will also complicate the temperature
forecast and therefore kept fairly uniform temps given the
uncertainty.

This slow moving vertically stacked system will continue to move
up the east coast. This will slowly clear out of the region
through the day Tuesday as the upper level heights rise. This will
allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures with high
progressing into the mid to upper 70s. This will persist into
Tuesday night and did not go with any temp splits at this point,
Given the increasing gradient ahead of the next system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

The period starts off warm and sunny on Wednesday with shortwave
ridging in place aloft. Our pattern then turns unsettled again on
Thursday as a resident trough establishes itself over the central
CONUS placing our region under southwest flow aloft. Multiple
shortwaves will travel through this southwest flow bringing
periodic chances of showers and storms Thursday through Monday.
Saturday may be the lone dry day as models show a warm front
lifting to our north shifting any showers/storms to the north as
well, at least temporarily. Overall, forecast models are in
general agreement aloft but differ slightly with timing of
individual shortwaves and surface features so accepted the
standard model blend for forecast details in or order to smooth
out these differences.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period. In
fact, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will likely reach
the upper 70s to mid 80s putting April 2017 in the record books as
one of the warmest Aprils on record across eastern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Cigs are fairly complicated areawide this afternoon with portions
of the Bluegrass VFR and even some downsloping VFR in the far
southeast at times. Overall keeping most of the TAF sites MVFR
till around 20Z to 23Z. Then most should see the ceilings improve
and this will lead to a complicated forecast overnight. Depending
on the clearing amounts do we see a stratus build down or a fog
development type night. Right now given the confidence level will
lean toward MVFR fog at SME/LOZ and hold off on other sites at
this point. Winds will remain light out of the east and northeast
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ



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