000
FXUS63 KJKL 061254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EVENING UP THE LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THAT
HAD BEEN FOUND THERE PREVIOUSLY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NOW HAD BETWEEN
ONE AND A HALF TO OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED TODAY...SO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS VERY MUCH A THREAT...WITH SOME LARGER CREEK FLOODING
ALSO POSSIBLE. AREA RIVERS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND...HOWEVER SOME
LOCATIONS MAY WIND UP FLIRTING WITH FLOOD STAGE EVENTUALLY THIS
WEEKEND.

CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY HAS ALSO BROUGHT
DOWN THE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG OUR HIGH TERRAIN...WITH THE
DORTON MESONET SITE AT JUST UNDER 2800 FEET ELEVATION BRIEFLY DIPPING
TO 32 DEGREES. BLACK MOUNTAIN DROPPED FROM 51 DEGREES DOWN TO 36
DEGREES IN AN HOUR...BUT HAS SINCE RECOVERED TO 44 DEGREES...SO AM
HOPEFUL THAT DORTON WILL EITHER STAY AT 33 OR PERHAPS BUMP UP A
LITTLE MORE THROUGH THE DAY.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY LOWERING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA...ALIGNED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE ARE SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...WITH IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINICITY...AS THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS PUSHING NEARLY 30 DEGREES BETWEEN THE WARMER AND COLDER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN PLACES.

AFTER SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WAS MOVING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SKIM AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN BETWEEN ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL THUS FAR FOR
THE EVENT...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HITTING AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS IT DOES
EXTEND WELL BACK INTO TENNESSEE.

MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR HAS INFILTRATED FROM THE NORTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME TEMPERATURE PROFILE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE GIVEN ITS
BETTER RESOLUTION. RAIN...FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL RULE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS UPTICKING A DEGREE OR SO...BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY ERODES OUT THE WARM NOSE.

GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64...THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WHILE GROUND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
40S...SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF SLEET...SNOW...AND PERHAPS A BIT OF
ICE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE
AREA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHILE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN...THE IMPACT WILL BE LESS AS THE WARM GROUND WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN AS A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS ICE IS LOST AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES
PACKED AT 850 MB AND LOWER. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH THE GROUND
COOLS OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT THERE WILL
AT LEAST LIKELY BE SOME RE-FROZEN WET PATCHES TO CONTEND WITH...EVEN
IF THE DRIZZLE DOES NOT ACCRUE MUCH. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY
MORNING...AS MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT...GIVING US A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DRY WEATHER THAT LOOKS TO LAST A WHOLE 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

WINTRY MIX OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX WEATHER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO MOVE OUT OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE A NASTY MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SNOW. AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WILL
SEE MOSTLY SNOW TO BEGIN THE EVENT...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. THE ICE AND SNOW WILL NOT BE AROUND FOR
VERY LONG...HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR WORKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN.
THE RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO MELT OFF MOST OR ALL
OF ANY SNOW OR ICE THAT ACCUMULATES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE
THE THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OCCURS...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR INVADES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING A CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROUND BEING FAIRLY WARM
AND SATURATED...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF AROUND 20 NORTH OF I-64 SUNDAY
MORNING...TO AROUND 30 SOUTH OF THAT AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTH...TO AROUND
40 FROM SOUTH OF I-64 TO A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON TO JACKSON TO
PIKEVILLE. HIGHS SOUTH OF THAT LINE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
43 AND 45 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN 32 AND 41 FROM
THE FAR NORTH TO THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64...WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS THEN PROGGED
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AS A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS EACH NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STEADY RAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN. A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN