Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261515 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR




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