Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 062350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. TONIGHT DOES NOT
LOOK AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



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