Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
323 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Forecast was largely on track yet. The northwest edge of the
forecast area continues to be skirted by a large area of light to
moderate rain. However, this precip has been on a slow decline and
that trend should continue. Elsewhere, a diurnal cu field has
developed in the warm sector, and forecast soundings still suggest
a few showers developing this afternoon as was forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 916 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Precip diminished quickly as it moved into our northern counties
this morning. There is some light rain over the northwest tip of
the forecast area and a high POP has been maintained there for a
bit longer, but POPs were trimmed backed elsewhere in the north
for the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 717 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Showers, with some embedded thunder, are starting to make their
way into our Bluegrass counties, as the warm front has shifted
north towards the I-64 corridor. The latest higher resolution
guidance has activity nudging a bit more to the east, before
diminishing by late this morning. Will freshen up the POPs to
account for these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

A surface warm front is currently aligned from the Kentucky/Tennessee
border down to the Arklatex region. An ongoing low level jet has
been escorting plenty of anomalously high PWAT air along the
Mississippi and portions of the Ohio River. Heavy rainfall has
stayed just to our northwest overnight. In eastern Kentucky, dense
fog from earlier has diminished, as visibilities have been
improving. Temperatures currently range from the mid 40s in the
cooler locations, to the lower 60s, where southerly winds have
already engaged. Aloft, deep southwesterly flow remains in place
across the Mississippi Valley, in between a deep trough parked
across the Rockies, and the stout ridge still residing across the
western Atlantic.

The warm front will lift north today, with some shower activity
likely bleeding over into the Bluegrass counties through this
morning. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible
across the rest of eastern Kentucky, as highs return to the mid
to upper 70s for most locations, and we remain in the warm sector.

Tonight, another low level jet will nose in from the southwest,
with the surface boundary laying out mainly along the I-64
corridor. Showers will ramp up after midnight, with better
rainfall across the Bluegrass. Higher POPs will continue into the
day on Saturday, as the surface boundary lifts back north towards
the Ohio River. Will continue to mention thunder as a possibility
Saturday afternoon, as some modest instability remains in place.

Given the repeated rounds of moderate to at times heavy rainfall
moving through into this weekend, have hoisted a flood watch for
locations along and north of I-64, where in general, the higher
rainfall has occurred in recent days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

A cold front will exit southeast Kentucky on Sunday, and rain
chances will decrease as the day continues. While the 12Z GFS pushes
the front far enough southeast Sunday night that rain chances would
come to an end, the 12Z ECMWF shows another wave moving northeast
along the front and thus keeping at least a slight chance of showers
in the far southeast into Monday. Our standard blended model
approach actually takes this into account and our forecast will push
rain chances back north Sunday night, with slight rain chances
lingering into Monday afternoon in the far southeast. Forecast rain
amounts Sunday morning will mostly be less than 0.25 inch. Any rain
from Sunday afternoon into Monday will be on the light side with
amounts of 0.10 or less.

Weak upper level ridging then builds into the area and a surface
high slides across the OH valley, before moving to the east coast
Tuesday night. This results in dry weather for Tuesday. Rain chances
return by Wednesday as short wave energy moves northeast from a
western U.S. trough. Rain chances then continue until another cold
front moves through the area on Thursday. Dry weather will then
return Friday, though a few showers may linger in the east to start
the day.

Temperatures will remain above normal with only a very slight
cool down with the frontal passage on Sunday. Temperatures return
to close to normal values with the passage of the late week cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Mainly VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, with just some
isolated MVFR. Isolated showers were occurring. A healthy field
of cumulus clouds had developed over the region at mid day, and
with continued heating, some of these will develop into additional
showers. The showers may bring sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise,
restrictions are not anticipated this afternoon. For most
locations, the showers should diminish as sunset approaches. A
cold front moving in from the northwest may keep showers going
into the evening around I-64. Elsewhere, after an evening lull,
showers should redevelop during the night as the front moves
southeast and a disturbance also passes through. The frontal
passage and showers are expected to bring deteriorating conditions
tonight, with a fall to at least MVFR. The northern part of the
area is forecast to drop to IFR conditions around dawn. The poor
conditions should last through the morning.

Winds will be brisk and gusty out of the south to southwest this
afternoon, sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph for most
places. Winds should diminish toward sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Sunday morning for
KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...HAL



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