000
FXUS63 KJKL 020648
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING THIS MORNING
AND ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GET SHUT DOWN AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. FOR TODAY...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING
IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING AT AROUND 15K FT. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...PARAMETERS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAT
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SOME DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ALSO WITH A TROUGH AS
DEEP AS THIS...THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL
HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE 13.5K FT AND THE WET
BULB ZERO WILL BE AT 9.7K FT. THIS ACTUALLY COULD RESULT IN ONE OR
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR TOPOGRAPHY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THIS FRONT MIDWEEK...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO BRING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND IS IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE. IN FACT...
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOR THE FOG. THERE IS FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BUILD UP INTO THE TAF STATIONS. THE WIND
PICKED UP AT JKL AND BLEW MOST OF THE FOG AWAY...HOWEVER IT STILL
LURKS IN THE VALLEY BELOW. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONCE THE FOR BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13-14Z...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE. WITH THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF BOTH STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
HAIL. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST FORMING BY 6Z AT THE
TAF STATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE TAF STATIONS SEE TODAY
AND THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL GREATLY EFFECT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ