Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 191858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO WANE. EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...NO THUNDER...FOR THE EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS A
NEARLY CONSTANT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND A SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
ADVANCING ESE ACROSS IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EAST KY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AFTER SUNSET AS
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. EVEN SO WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR VICINITY...AND MORE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. THE MUGGY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH
PERSISTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES SLOWLY THROUGH TIME.
TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN OUR STANDARD MODEL
BLEND MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM THOUGH CONSIDERING HOW WET MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN RECENTLY AND ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS
WILL BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOW 70S MUCH OF THE TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY FEATURE SOME OF THE
WARMEST WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER...OR AT LEAST EQUAL
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED JULY 10TH THROUGH THE 13TH.

WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH A DIFFUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSER TO THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SBH






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