Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 282055

National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 455 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

A cold front was located over the far NW portion of the JKL
forecast area at mid afternoon, and was moving SE. Showers were
occurring near and behind the front, with thunderstorms further
northwest over IN where colder air aloft was located near an upper
low center. The front will continue progressing SE tonight,
bringing showers with it. However, the showers should be on a
decline this evening as instability wanes. Have used categorical
POP in our far NE, trimmed down to chance POP late in our SE.
Decided not to continue thunder potential tonight, with very
little thunder occurring any longer in the band of precip
currently moving in, and instability weakening by late tonight as
colder air aloft arrives after surface temps have cooled down.
However, the cold pool aloft will be centered over KY on Thursday,
and daytime heating will lead to instability and a potential for
thunder. Instability wanes again on Thursday night, and models
agree on a dry slot of sorts wrapping around the upper low, with
the result being most precip drying up during the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Very blocky pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend with
the upper level low continuing to spin over the Ohio river
valley. Looks like eastern Kentucky will be located more or less
in a semi- dryslot on Friday with showers exiting to our
northeast and the main with the main low center retrograding back
to the west into southern Illinois. This may keep most of the
area dry on Thursday. A few showers may approach the I-75
corridor during the afternoon, but confidence is fairly low on
this and thus, chance of rain will remain low. After another lull
Friday night, the upper level low will make a slow track
northward and send a vort max across central Kentucky. This may
push a better chance for showers into central/northern Kentucky
Saturday afternoon/evening. Again shower chances will likely stay
across our western and northern zones. Upper level low will then
slowly drift east across the great lakes and into New England over
the weekend and into early next week with rain chances staying off
to our north. This will spell a dry end to the weekend and dry
conditions through the first half of next week. Temperatures will
stay cool through the weekend with warmer weather on tap as we
head through next week. Highs may climb back to around 80 or
better by early to middle portion of next week as heights start to
build over the area once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

VFR conditions dominated at the start of the period. There were
some diminishing showers moving through the far northern portion
of the forecast area, mainly north of I-64. Much more
precipitation was a bit further to the N & W, from SW OH to W KY.
The precipitation was associated with a surface cold front and a
large upper level low pressure system. The cold front will move
southeast through the JKL forecast area late today and this
evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Conditions will take a downturn once the precip and front arrive,
with a deterioration to IFR forecast for late tonight and lasting
into the day Thursday. Improvement to MVFR is possible before the
end of the period. Southwest winds will occur ahead of the front
this afternoon, with some gusts near 20kts. Winds will ease behind
the front.






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