Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300035 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.

CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH A MERIDIONAL RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. IN FACT...A RATHER COOL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE
MCS TYPE SET UP WITH THE EXTENDED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF SOME CONVECTION DIMINISHING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE SEEMS MORE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO KY...ESPECIALLY WITH A SEEMINGLY
STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KY. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT WHILE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE
PATTERN...THE GFS SOUNDING ARE SHOWING LESS INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE ORGANIZATION WITH THESE FEATURE SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST.
PERHAPS THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INABILITY CLEAR OUT THE AREA DUE TO
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE EURO IN
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THIS
SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY CASE AND HENCE THE MARGINAL MENTION IN THE DAY
3 BY SPC AND THIS MIGHT EVEN PERHAPS BE OVERDONE.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE INSTABILITY SEEMS A BIT BETTER AND
ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY AND THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...BUT ONCE AGAIN LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY
SO THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZATION BEING TIED TO THE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND EURO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE PATTERN AND THE
EURO BECOMING MORE ZONAL OR AT LEAST A MORE FLATTENED FLOW. DUE TO
THIS AND BEING THE LAST 2 DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TO A
COMPROMISE OF THE SUPER BLEND AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE RESULT OF THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
ORGANIZED SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
DIURNAL DOMINATED TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAKENING OR FLATTENING PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EURO...AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED THE TAF SITES...BESIDES
A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR SYM AND SJS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE
NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY AT LOZ AND SME. HAVE GONE
WITH IFR FOG FROM 08 TO 12Z...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH...GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO THE
EVENING. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 12Z...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THREATENING ONCE AGAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE
WSW TO W AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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