Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 192359 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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