Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS...WILL
SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ARE FINAL
VALUES SHOULD STILL BE OBTAINABLE AFTER THE WINDS DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR A VERY QUICK
DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. SO HAVE
WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING AREA WIDE TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY IS
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS AND WILL HELP USHER IN WARM MOIST AIR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
QUITE STRONG WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
SOUTHWEST A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL RAISE A CONCERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS TIME
PERIOD IN THE HWO. THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND LIKELY TO NEAR
CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR THIS EVENT.

AFTER THIS...MID LEVEL RIDGING IN A BUSY PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST REGION WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND EURO DO SEEM TO SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS
QUITE A BIT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IN
FACT...HAD TO LOWER POPS BELOW THE SUPER BLEND VALUES TO GET A
REASONABLE MEAN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. A BLOCKING LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS BRINGS THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHERE THE EURO KEEPS IN FURTHER SOUTH.
DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND LOWER POPS BELOW THE
SUPER BLEND SOLUTION. THIS DOES MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING
NEIGHBORS AS WELL. OVERALL AND COOL AND WET EXTENDED MAY BE ON
TAP BUT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS AND EURO DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.