Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



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