Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291500
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE ZONE PRODUCT AND ADJUST GRIDS A BIT.
CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. BUT STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU TO DEAL WITH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT TONIGHT. MODELS BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAY HAVE BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY
COVER AND HAVE TRENDED WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP JUST A TAD
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION EXIT A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING
AS THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND REGION. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE. CLEARING IS QUICKLY ADVANCING WEST INTO
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO SPEED UP THE CLEARING AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST AND HAS BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HELPING TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WHILE ONE BATCH OF RAIN IS
ON THE WAY OUT INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. FARTHER
NORTH...AREAS NORTH OF I-64 HAVE DRIED OUT...AND SHOULD STAY THIS WAY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. PRETTY GOOD
CLEARING BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND THIS SHOULD ALSO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
60...BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID
30S. WHILE NOT IDEAL...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS TONIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MORE FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...SO WILL CONFINE THE FROST TO MAINLY AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE MAIN RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER A COLDER START THURSDAY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EVEN COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THIS SAID AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SE TOWARD THE
REGION EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
THE CONTINUAL TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DEEP UL LOW BASED ON DPROG/DT. ALSO
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA
STILL MORE ON THE SIDE OF RAIN SHOWER HOWEVER DID INTRODUCE MIX WITH
SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT. POPS DO DROP OFF
SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SE OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HARD FREEZE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING MONDAY UNDER RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS AND POPS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY WILL STICK
WITH BLENDED POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD
IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT DRY AIR MIX DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS







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