Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
138 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 1231 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Most spots remain sunny this early afternoon hour, but cumulus
clouds continue to develop along the TN/VA border as anticipated.
Therefore confidence still remains that isolated to scattered
storms will have the best chance to develop along and near the
high terrain closer to the TN/VA border. Overall timing looks to
be around or after 2 to 3 PM for initial storm development based
on most of the CAM guidance. Otherwise made some minor changes to
deal with latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Clouds have clear out this morning and we are left with mostly
sunny skies. Otherwise expecting more in the way of isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Right now
HRRR keeps activity minimal till late afternoon, meanwhile the
ARW/NMM want to develop activity perhaps a bit earlier. Overall
coverage wise the SSEO data would suggest far SE near the VA
border and that seems reasonable given a more orographic lift
scenario. Given little if any steering flow based on forecast
soundings these would be slow movers but would slowly progress
north through the late afternoon and evening.

UPDATE Issued at 803 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Have blended early morning obs into the forecast, with no
substantive changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

We remain in a stagnant pattern which is slow to change. Upper
level ridging was over the southeast ConUS, and a large trough
over the western ConUS. Near the periphery of the ridge, we are
seeing rounds of convection at times. Convection tends to build
once daytime destabilization occurs, but may also occur in a less
intense fashion during the night and morning. Features responsible
for focusing convection are subtle, making detailed forecasting
difficult. That being said, have made a best attempt at it using
a blend of model solutions. Light showers ongoing over the
northern part of the JKL forecast area early this morning
shouldn`t amount to much. Models suggest convection will initiate
with destabilization over the higher terrain of the Appalachians
today, and then propagate northward in weak steering currents
during the late afternoon and evening. This activity dies out
during the night. Next, a plume of deeper moisture rotating around
the large scale trough to our west will makes its way east across
KY tonight and Saturday. This is the feature favored for our next
round of convective development, with the best chance on Saturday
being in our northern and western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of
the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this
shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the
potential for more widespread showers over the weekend.
Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane
season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move
onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic,
this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through
the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely
be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the
East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be
the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky.

Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the
northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during
the second half of the week with energy potentially extending
southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to
kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest
its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is
still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these
features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best
confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF
models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to
our northwest.

Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended
period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The
normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

All sites this early afternoon hour are remaining VFR with some
scattered CU across the eastern KY. We are seeing some isolated
showers developing along and near the VA border this afternoon and
this will become the aviation concern this afternoon. Right now
the issue is the isolated to scattered nature leads to VCTS
confidence at best. Most sites are not expected to get nearby
storms till generally after 20Z to 21Z. This could lead to brief
lowering in CIGS and VIS under heavier storms. Overnight the
concern becomes patchy valley fog and any location that gets
enhanced moisture from storms. Right now kept most sites VFR but
southern sites of SME/LOZ did add MVFR VIS. Given no steering flow
and high pressure no issues with winds are expected.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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