Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





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