Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

High pressure continuing to hold control, with only a few cirrus
skirting the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. May also see a
little cumulus development nearer the mountains in far southeast
Kentucky, but these will likely dissipate before making much
headway west in a downslope regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place
this weekend with persistence the way to go with highs and lows.
Thus, will maintain warm afternoon highs in the forecast with
cool morning lows. This mornings fog will burn off quickly after
sunrise. With another day of good mixing with dewpoints
potentially dipping into the upper 50s, the fog tonight should be
more limited to the river valleys and not quite as dense either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in
control of the weather through midweek. This will continue to
promote above normal temperatures, generally in the mid and upper
80s. By Thursday, heights will begin to decrease across Kentucky
as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will also make its way SE towards the CWA,
traversing sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model
trends continue to show this front losing considerable strength by
the time it reaches eastern KY, due in part to the parent low
pressure system moving much farther northward, well into NE
Canada. The ECMWF model still supports a dry forecast as the front
moves over, while the GFS is dry up until Thursday afternoon, at
which point diurnal influences will help to produce some light
showers with low QPF values. Continued to go with the blend
between the two, which supports only isolated showers at best
Thursday afternoon. Cooler temps and lack of instability will
prevent thunder wording. Behind this cold front, another
reinforcing cold front is expected to end out the period. These
two systems will bring the push of more seasonable temperatures
into the CWA to end out the week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

VFR conditions to hold with high pressure in control. Will see
some river valley fog develop tonight into Sunday morning, but
this should largely avoid all sites. Kept mention of MVFR ceilings
at SJS late tonight through early Sunday morning given presently
greater moisture. Winds will generally remain east to northeast
near 5 knots or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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