Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240759

National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

A dry cold front currently just north of the Ohio river this
morning, will work south across the area today. Conditions have
remained somewhat mixed overnight with temperatures still holding
in the mid 50s in most areas. Some of the eastern valleys have
decoupled and fallen back into the 40s. Either way, cold front
will lack any cloud cover, so with the sun coming up this morning,
we will quickly warm just ahead of the front reaching the mid 60s
to around 70 in most places today. With drier and cooler air
settling in behind the front tonight, lows will be much cooler
with some mid 30s showing up in the deeper valleys of eastern
Kentucky. With the dry air lagging behind the front, it looks like
conditions should favor more fog formation tonight in the river
valleys. Model sounds show a tremendous amount of dry air just off
the surface on Tuesday. Model blend continues to handle this dry
air very poorly and have undercut all guidance with respect to
afternoon/early evening dewpoints. Have dropped most places a good
5 degrees under guidance. The dry air will also lead to highs
above guidance. In fact, 850mb temperatures warm a degree or two
heading into Tuesday. Right now going to shoot for highs in the
mid 60s to around 70, not too far off from today`s temperatures.
We could be a degree or two cooler just because we will be
starting off the day much cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Surface ridging will be translating eastward across the Appalachians
Tuesday night downstream of a shortwave trough pushing from the
eastern Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This
will induce return flow and subsequent warm air advection through
the night. This combined with a bone dry boundary layer will likely
put a damper on much in the way if any frost potential for Wednesday
morning. Could see some patchy fog in the more sheltered valleys
bordering Virginia and West Virginia as return flow will arrive
later nearer the axis of the departing surface ridge.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive across the Bluegrass
region near or after midnight Wednesday into Thursday as the
aforementioned trough and an attendant cold front approach the Ohio
Valley. Better rainfall chances will occur later in the night into
Thursday morning as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico eventually
works into eastern Kentucky. Will continue to keep thunder mention
out of the forecast as overall instability appears weak, although
will have to monitor potential for an elevated storm or two if
stronger dynamical cooling can erode a chunk of the low-mid level

High pressure will then build back in for the end of the week as
high temperatures generally remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
before an upper level disturbance moves toward lower Ontario and the
western Great Lakes. This could bring another round of showers by
Friday night into Saturday, while another weak system may try to
load up for the second half of the weekend. Despite the passage of
these systems and associated cold fronts, a widespread freeze
continues to look unlikely before Halloween.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

VFR conditions will continue through Monday night. Steady
southwest winds will continue overnight before a windshift to the
northwest with a dry frontal passage Monday morning. The northwest
winds will subside to light and variable after 23z Monday.




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