Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 010817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ZONAL FLOW RESIDES ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ZONAL FLOW FOR TODAY
WILL MEAN A QUIETER DAY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY...HI RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T
SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING. GIVEN THE
RECENT HISTORY OF HI RES MODELS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH
CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CORRIDOR OF POPS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST PW`S AROUND 1.7
AND VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>15KFT) POTENTIAL MAY EXISTS FOR SOME
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE TIED TO THE PEAK INSTABILITY HOURS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DYING OFF. THIS WILL
YIELD A QUITE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES COULD YIELD
SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT WE MAY KEEP ENOUGH WIND AGAIN TO LIMIT IT TO
SOME DEGREE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL SPARK
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY. THESE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH MODEST 30-40KT BULK SHEAR
VALUES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR SOME LINEAR STORM SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH IN THE
NEAR TERM DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH A RATHER ZONAL
PATTERN TO START OVERALL. THE NEAR TERM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED AND RATHER WASHED OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR TWO IN THE ZONAL FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK INTO THE REGION BY
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RIDGE TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FOR THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON FRI.
OVERALL...CONVECTION FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A DIURNAL FLAVOR.

ALSO DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND GRADUALLY ACROSS
THE THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM WED INTO SATURDAY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
HAVING THE GREATER DEPARTURE OF NEARLY 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. WHILE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT...SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG OUT
OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






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