Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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437
FXUS63 KJKL 190809
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
409 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

Not many updates to the short term period to pass along. Strong
upper level ridging will continue to push its way eastward into
Kentucky during the day, while a shortwave/closed low just to our
east is pushed towards the Atlantic Coast. By Thursday, this ridge
will take full grasp of Kentucky with continued height increases,
while the closed low drops southward along the SE Atlantic coast,
heading towards Florida.

While high pressure should be in control at the surface across the
CWA, can`t rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm once more along
the VA border due to the close proximity to the upper level
disturbance. This feature has moved farther east than yesterday,
so don`t expect nearly the amount of coverage. In fact, only
mentioned slight chance pops for a few hours during the peak
afternoon heating just along the state line. Meanwhile, mostly
clear skies and building heights will translate to yet another hot
day across eastern KY. High temperatures will top the upper 80s
to around 90. Heat indices will be in the low 90s, which isn`t bad
considering, thanks to the fact that main flow will be out of the
NW and N, and not a more moist southerly flow which would have
resulted in much higher humidity and heat indices.

Overnight tonight, expect much of the same as previous nights,
with strong subsidence combining with mostly clear conditions and
light winds creating a good environment for fog development in
the valleys. As we lack moisture, expect impacts from this fog to
continue the improving trend from previous nights. However, near
rivers and bodies of water, can`t rule out some locally dense
spots.

For Thursday, the upper level ridge will be in full swing with no
remaining influence from the shortwave/closed low as it dives
south. High pressure at the surface continue to move across the
region as well. All in all it looks to be a mostly clear quiet day
once again across the entire CWA. Temperatures will be at their
warmest, however, hitting or topping 90 degrees in most locations.
Of more concern will be the heat indices, as it may reach the
upper 90s to near 100 across the western portion of the CWA, and
mid 90s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

We will initially be on the periphery of a strong mid/upper level
ridge over the south central CONUS, with surface high pressure
over our area. Ridging at the surface and aloft should break down
Friday through the weekend. In the upper levels, this will allow
for slight cooling and a modest increase in wind as the westerlies
drop further south. At the surface, increased flow will help to
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area. The combined result
will be an overall increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage as we
move through the weekend. A cold front is expected to approach
from the northwest Sunday and Monday, and this is when the highest
POP will be carried. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the front passing
through from northwest to southeast late Monday and Monday night,
allowing for somewhat cooler and less humid air to move in. Until
then, conditions will be uncomfortably hot and humid. The highest
temperatures are expected on Friday, before the increase in
clouds and precip starts to hold temperatures down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

Weak high pressure across the area will result in a rather
stagnant weather pattern, with VFR conditions and light winds
prevailing once again into Wednesday. Fog will develop in the
river valleys through the rest of the night with MVFR impacts, or
worse. At the TAF sites, this fog will likely affect the SME site
for a couple of hours around daybreak as it has the previous few
mornings - have added a tempo for this. All other TAF sites will
continue remain VFR through Wednesday. Added in a scattered deck
of low-end VFR fair weather CU developing during the afternoon
Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW



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