Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 042020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT...IN THE BROADEST SENSE...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEY ARE FAR FROM
MESHING WITH THE SHORTER WAVE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY AFTER THE
WEEKEND. LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND...THEY ALL PUSH A BRIEF RIDGE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH...ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
LOW...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOW THE WEAKEST AND FASTEST WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MATCH UP BETTER. WHILE THAT SOUTHERN LOW IS
PASSING...A NORTHERN STREAM ONE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY
WITH JUST SOME WEAK ENERGY SLIPPING THROUGH OUR STATE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN PROMPT A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS THE MODELS AGREE UPON...WITH THE ECMWF THE
STRONGEST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF TAKES THE CORE OF THIS DEVELOPING
LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG...BUT BROADER...TROUGH FROM THE GFS
COVERING THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
PORTENDS AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WHOLE TROUGH QUICKLY FILLS AND GETS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST WHEN THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
AND SEEP SOUTHEAST. SEEMINGLY MINOR DETAILS AROUND THE TROUGH/LOW
DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
AT THE SFC AND WITH WX DETAILS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
REMAINS THE PREFERRED STARTING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED GRIDS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND SLOWLY MODERATING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT IS
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST SFC
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER A BROAD EXPANSE ENCOMPASSING THE OHIO VALLEY
AND DOWN OVER THIS PART OF KENTUCKY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THIS
EVOLUTION LOCALLY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL SFC LOW. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FOCUS ON THE CLEARER
INDICATIONS OF A COLDER TURN TO THE WEATHER AND SOLID CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE FAR MORE TRICKY
AS THE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE COASTAL INTERACTION AND
COULD TURN OUT RATHER PALTRY WITHOUT A SOLID CONNECTION TO THE
EAST COAST WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNSATISFYINGLY LOW FOR AN EVENT THAT IS JUST A
HANDFUL OF DAYS AWAY.

AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO
REFLECT A REASONABLE AMALGAMATION OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/JMW


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