Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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732
FXUS63 KJKL 290616 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO INCLUDE MORE FOG IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. KI35 HAS RECENTLY FALLEN TO ONE HALF OF A MILE IN
FOG AN INDICATOR WHAT IS PROBABLY OCCURRING IN MANY OF THESE
VALLEY AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT OR SHOULD
MATERIALIZE THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FOG IS THE
MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE...BUT THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...OR BY THE 9 AM TO 10 AM
WINDOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
POSSIBLY SOME VALLEY FOG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW PREVALENT THE FOG
WILL BE...GIVEN MODELS INDICATING 850 MB WINDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP THE COLUMN MIXED. EVEN SO...DID INCLUDE
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST RADAR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE NIGHT AS CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE
CHARACTERISTICS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OPENS INTO THE
FRONT RANGE AS A CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS
SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND UP INTO
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GIANT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE OH VALLEY...BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA BY NOON ON SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND LIMITED
CAPE...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS BUT WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL BE AN ISSUE...THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A CONCERN OF SOME STRONG
STORMS. HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS INTO THE HWO.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COOL PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED LEADING TO
A COOL AND DRY PERIOD BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT MAINLY
THE NON TAF SITES INITIALLY THOUGH MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT LOZ AND SME AFTER 9Z. SOME NON TAF SITE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES BEFORE 13Z. ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 14Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL IN ALL
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE DEPARTING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN TAF SITES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD....GENERALLY FROM THE WEST INITIALLY BUT BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP



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