Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160139
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
939 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS REALLY DISSIPATED UPON ARRIVAL. HOWEVER...A
SECOND SURGE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE SHOULD BACK OFF AGAIN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS 4 AM. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE ENDED...BUT STILL WATCHING A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY OVER THE COMING 2 TO 4
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ON THROUGH AND THEN WE WILL WAIT ON
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BACK TO THE AREA BY DAWN. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA..AND NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS WILL BE ARRIVING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...NOT MUCH EXPECTED THROUGH 10 PM AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THEIR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THERE IS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE AN OLD FRONT IS FOUND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BORDER. TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS GIVING WAY
TO THE ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND ITS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY
HEADING THIS WAY...HOWEVER IT IS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH THAT IS
KICKING UP ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THAT MANY PLACES SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY SEE ENOUGH ACTIVITY AMONG THE SPRINKLES TO
ACTUALLY MEASURE. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FOUND
THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75
DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL REINFORCE THE
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
SOME ENERGY ALSO MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...SQUEEZING BY
JUST NORTH OF A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE TROUGH HOLDS
FAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SOUTH OF THE STATE THAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE NORTHWEST FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT WITH A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS EXPECTED...AS THE
THUNDER FADES TOWARD SUNSET. THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE
THE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS PRESS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME
INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PCPN
AROUND. FOR TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE DRIER AIR AND A NEW COOL SHOT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT
TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH VALLEY FOG AGAIN A CONCERN.

USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE LOADING THE SUPER BLEND THEREAFTER.
DID TWEAK THE LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IN-LINE AND DRY ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH...MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING FAR SE KY. THIS HAS HELD TRUE
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS AND HEADS EAST OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS KY FROM THE NW WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO PUT FAITH IN ANY ONE MODEL FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WILL PROVE UNWISE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. THOUGH DO HAVE TO SAY...ALL MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FRONT AND A LINE OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP
TO MOVE THROUGH KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
STILL IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY FRIDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF CAPE...AND LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS
SO...WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR CIGS WILL START OFF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LAST WELL INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE THE
MVFR CIGS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL GO
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE CIGS
SHOULD STAY MVFR AND FAIL TO GET NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS






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