Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 172202
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
502 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 502 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

A deep trough, currently aligned along the Appalachians will shift
east through the short term, with heights recovering across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure
centered near the Arklatex region, will gradually dampen and shift
to the southeast through Friday morning.

For eastern Kentucky, flurries will gradually come to an end this
evening, as moisture continues to shallow. Clouds will thin out,
with clearing expected for the second half of the night. This will
allow for another cold night across the area, with temperatures
dipping to below zero for many valley locations, given the
clearing and snow pack in place.

Temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 30s on Thursday,
with mostly sunny skies and winds backing to the southwest. Lows
Thursday night will modify; however, given the linger snow pack,
have still allowed for single digits in the normally colder
valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 502 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

The pattern for the long term has been fairly consistent, showing
discrete northern stream flow and southern stream flow. The
northern stream starts with a ridge over the Great Lakes region
and the southern shows a cutoff low over the ARKLATEX region. The
northern flow is more stagnant, with ridging to more zonal flow,
whereas the cutoff low progresses through the southern stream,
located southeast of the Commonwealth towards the end of this
weekend. Both of these set up fairly zonal flow through eastern KY
through Sunday. However, a disturbance will make its way into the
CWA by the end of the weekend and into Monday.

The models are in decent agreement with the overall pattern
through the weekend. However, they start to deviate with the main
system of focus in terms of timing and intensity. The ECMWF is
less progressive, but is more amplified with more precip
forecasted. The GFS is more progressive, but is less amplified
with a bit less precip at this time. Therefore, there is still a
fair amount of uncertainty with this main system.

Looking closer to the surface, a high pressure system still looks
to build in to the SW of eastern KY and progress to the east.
This pattern will bring WAA into the region with southerly winds,
ushering in warmer temps for the weekend. Also, the southerly
winds coupled with clear skies Friday night will lead to a
ridge/valley temperature split. Before the main cold front moves
in to our region Monday, an inverted trough/warm front ahead of
the main system will help bring some chances for precip Sunday.
Overall, the warm temps during the day will keep the precip mostly
rain, but there is a possibility of a rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations as precipitation comes to an end Tuesday morning. After
the system passes, cooler temps will be the main theme into mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

Broken MVFR stratocu will slowly scatter out later this evening,
with VFR conditions expected thereafter as high pressure remains
in control. Northwest winds of around 5 kts will diminish into
this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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