Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 160603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
103 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO INCREASE POPS A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME LIGHTNING JUST WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY...BUT THIS HAS
DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG SANDY VALLEY DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH JUST CIRRUS OVERHEAD...BUT AS MID CLOUDS MOVE
IN...THESE SHOULD RECOVER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY GRIDS.
ALSO...MODEL WINDS ALOFT SUPPORTED INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH OVERNIGHT ON TOP OF PINE AND BLACK MTNS AND
IN LOG MTNS OF BELL COUNTY AND THE FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDING FRONT WILL WORK
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AT THE MOMENT SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER
AIR...THEY MAY START TO FALL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...GOING TO STICK WITH THE
CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DAY OUT...LEAVING
BEHIND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS. NOT QUITE SURE WE
WILL SEE MUCH RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO PLAN TO GO WITH
SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ALL OUT RAIN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE PRESENTLY...WENT WITH
A QUICK DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...OUR
HIGHS MAY OCCUR EARLY...AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S...WITH RIDGES ABOVE 3000
FEET FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE
REMAINING...WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NW FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AS
THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SE PART OF THE STATE. ANY DRIZZLE WILL END AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER COULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GET
CAUGHT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. 12Z MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED BOTH.

ONCE THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LEAVES...THERE IS ANOTHER BREAK FOR ABOUT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT ONE HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM HEADS EAST...ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION WILL
DETERMINE OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE LATEST TREND IN THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR
A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER PRECIP IN OUR AREA. CONSIDERING HOW
POORLY THEY HAVE BEEN HANDLING IT SO FAR...IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SEE AT
LEAST ANOTHER FULL SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE WHOLE-HEARTEDLY JUMPING ON
THAT BANDWAGON. HAVE MADE A MODEST DRAWBACK ON POPS...WHILE
MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN. GREATEST POPS ARE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A COMBINATION WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
KY...WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING A SW TO NE PASS ACROSS EASTERN
KY...AND THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KY. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS A RESULT OF THE
PASSING WARM FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A BRIEF BREAK
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE REALLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO FALL TO MVFR...AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE FUEL ALTERNATE
CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA FOR
DRIZZLE HANGING AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW






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