Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 291916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
316 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Isolated showers and storms will continue to form and move across
portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. There is
just enough energy and moisture around for this convection to feed
off of. This activity is generally drifting from northeast to
southwest across the area. These showers and storms will likely
be short lived and weak and should be gone by the time the sun
begins to set. Overnight, we can expect to see mostly clear skies,
light winds, and areas of valley fog. Patchy dense fog may form
near bodies of water and in our deeper and more sheltered valleys.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area
weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly
cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrows highs
will still be quite warm, upper 80s and lower 90s, but the
humidity should be quite a bit lower, with max values in the 40s
and 50s during the afternoon, so the air should feel a bit more
pleasant tomorrow than it has over the past week or so.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

A pattern change will be underway by Tuesday night as an upper level
ridge shifts to our west and is replaced by a longwave trough by
late in the week. At the surface, a cold front will drop through the
region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This late arrival
time and limited instability should keep the frontal passage
relatively dry, with only a small chance of a shower or storm. A
cooler and much drier airmass will then advect in as high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes into the Northeast from Thursday
afternoon into the weekend. As a result, temperatures will fall from
the upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the
front on Friday with much more comfortable humidity levels as well.
Temperatures will moderate back into the mid 80s by Sunday and
dewpoints will climb back into the 60s as the surface high shifts to
our east and our flow becomes more southerly. It looks dry for the
Labor Day weekend as of now with any tropical mischief moving by
well to our south and east.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

A generally quiet period is in store, with generally VFR
conditions through out the period. There may be brief periods of
MVFR CIGs at any given airport this afternoon, but those should
occur so infrequently as to not warrant mentioning in the TAFs. We
might see an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but nothing
that would be widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Fog
will affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, mainly in the larger/deeper
valleys and near bodies of water. The fog should be gone by 10 am
on Tuesday, with VFR conditions expected after that.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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