Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED FORECAST ELEMENTS TO BLEND IN THE REALITY OF EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WERE
MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. OTHER STORMS OVER
WESTERN KY WERE MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD...AND IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JKL
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOT OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FEATURES TODAY.
FIRST...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A
BOWING MCS IS WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS
BOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. ITS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF THIS BOWING SYSTEM
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS
CAPPED WITH NOT CONVECTION PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...CAP HAS WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP. THESE SHOWERS WON`T HAVE A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OUT OF THESE OTHER THAN A QUICK PASSING SHOWER.

MAIN SHOW WILL LIKELY COME AS THE MCS OUT WEST PUSHES ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG IS SOUTHWARD...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE
HANDLING OF THE MCS...AND THEY HAVE IT BREAKING APART AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS FOR OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN
AREAS...TRAILING OFF TO LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN KENTUCKY...PRODUCING A LULL IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OUR VICINITY...AND
POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BY TOMORROW...QUESTION CENTERS
AROUND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT SITTING OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS...HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH SUPPORT SYNOPTICALLY FOR ANY
SHOWERS. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP...WE MAY
HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
STAY LOW ON THE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A PEAK IN DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BEFORE IT EXITS EAST LATE AT NIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS INTO THE 70 ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR
OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
MOVE IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING A DRY END TO THE
WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD. SOME
OF THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MODEST FORCING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
WEAKER CAP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS AND RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN
MORE OF A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT
THE GIVEN BLENDED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT STRUGGLING TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF
WESTERN KY...AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...WILL BRING THE ACTION TO
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z. STORMS MAY BRING
LOCALIZED IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS UNCLEAR. AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A RELATIVE LULL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



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