Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261904
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A QUIET AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AT THIS STUFF
MOVES EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE
MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS VERY SLOW AND WON`T LIKELY
REACH OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BY THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THIS BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THE AREA STAYS DRY. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
INSTABILITY DROPS THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL SPELL
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT QUIET NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME
NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE
LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOUCHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BOTH FEATURE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT HOW DENSE IT BECOMES WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO REFLECT TO THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH. A LINGERING BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALCAHIANS AND SOME NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOW QUITE A CAP IN PLACE THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENT THAT THE CAP WILL BE SUCH THAT GROWTH WILL BE LIMITED TO
SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS. IF BY CHANCE A SHOWER DOES POP THE
CAP...THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF EASTERN KY.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES FLATTEN AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON
ERODING THE MENTIONED CAP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
SOME A REMAINING CAP AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HOLDING OFF TILL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP A SLOWED FRONT FROM EXITING AND ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THURSDAY AND THE SUPER
BLEND DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION.

A POSSIBLE LAPSE IN CONSISTENCY MAY TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INTRUDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOST CURRENT OPERATION MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
AS DOES THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TAF SITES BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW AS CLOUD COVER
REMAINS UNCERTAIN TONIGHT. THUS WILL PLAN TO LET THE VFR
CONDITIONS RIDE FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS


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