Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN
THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY
TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN
HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE
HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION
MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON
AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND
ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.

SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN
POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED
COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY
LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LAST TWO PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS
WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT AND CIGS
LIFTING WITH CU DEVELOPMENT ON THE INCREASE. WITH THIS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 10 KNOTS IN SOME
PLACES. AFTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BEGIN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. AND SO HAVE PUT SOME IFR AND BELOW LINES IN THE TAFS FOR
ALL THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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