Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210800

National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

The latest surface map features low pressure centered across
southern Minnesota, with a cold front aligned south, nearly along
the Mississippi River. Aloft, an upper level low is displaced
just slightly west of the surface low, with a stout short wave
trough lifting northeast into western Illinois. An upper level
ridge is retreating towards the Eastern Seaboard.

So far, the mesoscale has been the main convective driver across
eastern Kentucky, as yet another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms affected portions of the area earlier,
mainly driven by outflow boundary interaction. Currently, some
scattered to numerous showers, with an isolated rumble of thunder,
is moving in from the Tennessee Valley. This uptick in activity is
mainly in response to a low level jet building in from the
southwest, but so far, the convection has been light. Most of the
model guidance suggests more intense convection to build in before
dawn; however, am a little skeptical based on the latest radar
and satellite trends.

The cold front will gradually push east today, with plenty of
moisture advecting northward out ahead it. This should lead to
numerous to widespread showers, with some thunderstorms, although
cloud cover will limit instability, as highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s. High PWATs for this time of year will continue to
bring an isolated flash flood threat; however, given the isolated
nature of the heavy rainfall coverage over the past few days,
will forego a watch at this time.

The front will shift to the east late tonight, with showers and a
few storms diminishing from west to east. Cooler air will move in
behind the front, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. A few
showers may linger in the far east into Monday morning, before
drying up by the afternoon. Highs will be in low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

The long term discussion will follow shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

VFR conditions will rule initially, as a cold front remains well
to our west. Through dawn, an increasing low level jet will likely
bring some MVFR ceilings in from the west. Scattered showers will
become more numerous during the day on Sunday as a cold front
gradually advances east across the Commonwealth. Thunderstorms
will likely be more scattered in nature. The front will move
through after 00z, with winds becoming more southwest behind the
frontal passage, and showers diminishing from west to east.




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