Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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002
FXUS63 KJKL 121810 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WHILE THE LAST OF THE MORE STEADY AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST...IT WOULD STILL BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW SETTLES DOWN IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR CURRENT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LAST BURST OF SNOW WHILE
ALLOWING THE WESTERN PORTION TO EXPIRE. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS
FOR THIS ALONG WITH FINE TUNING THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
THE WSW...HWO...AND ZONES WERE ALSO UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUICK HITTING BUT RELATIVELY WEAK
CLIPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OR TWO OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. IN THESE AREAS...
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES WITH PERIODIC
ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADS...SO AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH OUR CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED.
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 10 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID 20S
SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY...
THOUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TO T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LIGHT SNOW GETTING SET TO PUSH INTO WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH STILL
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS THIS SWATH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY
80 CORRIDOR. AREAS NORTH OF THIS MAY STILL SEE A DUSTING TO HALF
AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON TO MOUNT VERNON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN SNOW BAND WAS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. OBSERVED VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE
SUGGEST SOME MODERATE POCKETS OF SNOW CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. A SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING UP TO HALF AN
INCH SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NOTHING NORTH. WILL CURRENTLY
OPT TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLAY THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT MAY VERY
WELL END UP DROPPING AREAS FROM PRESTONSBURG WEST THROUGH JACKSON
AND BOONEVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE FLAKES BEGIN TO FALL
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE BRUNT
OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WET-BULBING AND BELOW FREEZING THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION FROZEN.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW POCKET OF SATURATION AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGES OF A POTENT HUDSON BAY LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE
TO KEEP LINGERING FLAKES IN THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.

THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AS SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS MATERIALIZE SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION COULD SEE THESE DROP TO AS LOW AS -5F WHILE A FEW RIDGETOPS
MAY BE EVEN COLDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST WITH
A STOUT COLD DOME IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE AND
NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE
REGION...GIVEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WOULD
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EASY FOR
MOST SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING LOWER TEMPS JUST GIVEN THE CLUSTER OF SURFACE
HIGH PLACEMENT FROM THE SUITE OF MODELS. AFTER THIS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TROUBLE RESOLVING SEVERAL KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THAT SAID
THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF POPS
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND AND OVERALL SEEMS LIKE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO POPS. THE
PRIMARY IMPLICATION OF CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS...AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGHER THAT WE WILL
SEE A LEAD WAVE THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS DO WANT TO SPREAD A WARM NOSE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A WARM FRONT. THE QUESTION ON
THE WARM NOSE IS HOW STRONG. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH LOW PLACEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WHICH WOULD BE LESS OF A
WARM NOSE THAN THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL TRANSITION IN
PTYPE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY ON...AND DISCUSSING THIS WITH
OTHER OFFICES AGREE THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. IT WILL HELP WHEN THIS SYSTEM IS FINALLY
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE COAT TAILS OF THE PREVIOUS DEEPER SURFACE
LOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST RIGHT NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. AFTER A MORE
COMPLICATED PERIOD OF TIME A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES EAST AND UPPER
RIDGE INTRODUCES DECENT HEIGHT RISES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE STEADIER SNOW WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY ON...VIS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO IFR AT LOZ AND TO MVFR AT JKL AND SJS.
OTHERWISE...VCSH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT MOST SITES WITH
NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. CIGS...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE IFR
AND MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TO PICK
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING RUNNING
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ086>088-110-112>118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF



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