Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221746
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Radar and satellite trends show convection over south central
Indiana diminishing, while stronger convection further west continues
moving south into far western KY. This is being handled fairly
well by short range models. Convection has been increasing from
central OH into southwest OH, and this will be monitored. This
convection is not being handled very well in the short range
models and could impact the northern part of our forecast area
this afternoon. The short range models are still indicating any
convection moving into our area this afternoon should be on a
diminishing trend, with the north and west most likely affected.
Updated NDFD hourly data based on latest observational trends but
did not make any changes to precipitation chances at this time.
Also did not make changes to afternoon maximum temperatures but if
there is more debris cloud from convection to our north and west
maximums may be a few degrees lower.

UPDATE Issued at 754 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Mostly cloudy skies have overspread the area from the north,
thanks to a thunderstorm complex that continues to develop more
on the southwest flank. Another line of convection has fired up in
northern Ohio; however, it is unclear whether this line will
develop enough of a cold pool to sustain itself, as it gets
further away from forcing with time. Will maintain pops as is for
now, keeping the better chances in the northwest. Did beef up the
cloud cover through the mid-morning hours, and consequently
tempered the diurnal rise. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The latest surface map continues to feature a weak synoptic
signal, with an outflow aligned along the northern Ohio Valley,
and a weak stationary front laid out from west to east from
northern Wyoming to the Minnesota/Iowa border. Aloft, the ridge
centered near the Oklahoma panhandle is the dominant feature.

A thunderstorm complex is currently rounding the periphery of the
ridge, currently impacting Illinois and Indiana. Convection has
been diminishing on the eastern flank of the system, with outflow
only slowly advancing to the south. Eastern Kentucky is currently
enjoying another fairly cool night, with the last of the
reasonable dew points in the low to mid 60s likely enjoyed for a
while.

Humidity will be on the rise through the short term, along with an
increase in thunderstorm chances. For today, the higher resolution
models have been picking up on the eventual influence from the
outflow from the weakening MCS. It looks like mainly our northwestern
third of the area would see the best chances of convection, with
lesser coverage to the southeast, where deeper moisture will still
be lacking. Highs today will make it into the lower 90s for most
locations, with heat indices nearing the 100 degree mark,
especially west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass.

Depending on the evolution of today`s convection, at least small
chances of convection may linger a bit longer into tonight, with
the potential of outflow boundaries. Tonight`s lows will be closer
to 70 degrees, although a few of the cooler valleys may still dip
into the upper 60s in the east.

On Saturday, capping in general will be a little weaker, so chance
pops across the entire area looks reasonable. Heat indices will
approach 100 degrees for most locations as higher humidity
continues to overspread the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The models remain in general agreement with broad upper level
ridging reigning across the southern half of the CONUS gradually
weakening into next week. The ridge will be buckled by short wave
energy riding east across southern Canada. Eventually, the ridge
will consolidate back across the desert southwest and off the
Carolina coast, with broad troughing taking shape across the Ohio
Valley by the middle of next week, which will allow for a period
of more unsettled, but slightly cooler weather.

Heat...humidity...and daily chances of thunderstorms will be the
rule across eastern Kentucky through early next week. The best
chance of convection still looks to arrive on Monday, as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The boundary will stall
across or just south of our area into the middle of next week,
keeping chances of storms in the forecast. Better chances look to
return by Thursday, with another increase in forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with the
exception being some MVFR visibility in fog late tonight and early
Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will affect the
northern part of the forecast area this afternoon, and will carry
a VCTS at SYM. Some patchy fog will likely develop late tonight,
mainly in the LOZ and SME areas and in river valleys. Winds will
remain light through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across the
entire forecast area.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH


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