Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
307 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

A few rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky
through around dawn this morning. The showers should be out of the
area by 12Z. The latest runs of the NAM12, GFS, and HRRR models,
along with the latest MOS data, all support this scenario, so the
forecast was modified accordingly to reflect this. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning, with
the clouds expected to gradually scatter out and move out of the
area by late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, near calm winds,
and valley fog will be on tap for late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry
conditions will be on tap for Wednesday. Temperatures will
continue to run well below normal today, with highs in the low to
mid 70s anticipated. We should see a return to closer to normal
temperatures on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure settles
over the area. Highs on Wednesday should be able to climb into the
lower 80s for most locations. With clear and calm conditions
expected tonight, we may see some valleys fall into the upper 40s,
while the surrounding ridges drop into the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 3 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

There is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern
through the forecast period. The long wave trough over the eastern
U.S. at the beginning of the period will be lifting out with more
zonal flow becoming established across our area. A couple of short
wave troughs will move through the mean flow during latter part of
the week, with the most significant short wave moving across the
Great Lakes this weekend.

At the surface, high pressure will be moving off to our east on
Wednesday. As a result temperatures will begin to warm and with
return flow developing moisture will also be on the increase across
the area through the latter part of the week. Wednesday will still
have dewpoints in the 50s, but after that dewpoints will go back
into the 60s, with mid and upper 60 dewpoints expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday afternoon a short wave
passing by to our north may result in a few storms in the northern
part of the area while moisture returning from the south will bring
a slight chance of storms to the south. With a slow moving front to
our north at the end of the week, and moisture continuing to
increase, the storm threat will expand on Friday. However storm
chances on Friday will remain relatively low. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur on Saturday into Saturday night as a
more significant short wave and associated surface low moving across
the Great Lakes results in a southward push of the cold front. The
front will stall in the OH valley and this will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next week.
Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s on Thursday, but the
daily threat of showers and storms will keep maximums in the lower
80s for most days from the weekend into early next week. With the
increase in dewpoints after Wednesday we`ll see our typical summer
lows of muggy 60s from the end of the week into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

VFR conditions look to hold on through the period. Clouds will
thicken and lower to around 6k feet agl from northwest to
southeast tonight, as a weak cold front approaches. A few showers
will threaten from late tonight into Tuesday morning, before
chances diminish into the afternoon as the cold front exits. A few
thunderstorms may also occur early Tuesday afternoon as daytime
heating begins to increase. Some fog may form in river valleys and
near bodies of water toward the end of the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will turn more out of the northwest at around 5 kts
once again into Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR



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