Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017

The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of
high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and
tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow
afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move
eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to
be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should
weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area
tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading
the area Friday night. At this time, the model data is suggesting
that our northern counties will see showers and storms Friday
night into early Saturday morning, with areas along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor possibly staying
dry. Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday and Friday
night, with tomorrows highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s and
tomorrow nights lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

The models remain in good agreement with an amplified trough to
rule across the central Conus into the middle of next week. A
cutoff low will start out across the Four Corners Region and
gradually amplify as it moves southeast and then pivots northeast
into the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes region by early
next week, with a positively tilted trough left in its wake by
Wednesday.

Friday night...a warm front will be situated close to the Ohio
River. A strengthening low level jet will pump in higher PWATs,
with convection breaking out near and towards the cool side of the
front. For eastern Kentucky, the Bluegrass will have the better
chance POPs, with lesser chances towards the southeast. Confidence
in a severe threat remains lower, given the overnight timing;
however, ample shear will be in place, so will have to see how
things evolve over the next 24 hours.

The warm front will lift north of the Ohio River this weekend,
keeping POPs more limited across eastern Kentucky. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 80s, with Saturday records in jeopardy. A
strong cold front will approach and move through the area Sunday
night into Monday. Low level shear will be through the roof, but
instability will be modest. Will continue to mention gusty winds
during this time frame.

Dry weather will follow by Monday night and looks to last through
Tuesday. Another front will develop in the vicinity of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a renewed threat of POPs.
Well above average temperatures will be felt through this weekend,
with values returning closer to normal readings for this time of
the year behind the cold front next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through the end of the
period. SCT to BKN low and middle level cloud cover will continue
to move east across the area this afternoon, and should give way
to FEW to SCT clouds by 0Z. Winds should be generally out of the
west to begin the period, should shift to the southeast this
evening, and eventually will be out of the south Friday and Friday
night. The winds should max out at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts
possible late Friday and Friday night. The TAF sites should remain
dry through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR


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