Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL



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