Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 140646
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
246 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Despite the incoming thicker high clouds, some of the northeast
valleys have cooled to around 64 degrees. As such, did adjust the
lows down a few more degrees in places. Elsewhere, low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s look on track, with the
higher resolution model still indicating the threat of convection
across the area towards dawn. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Mid and high clouds are moving in from the southwest, as moisture
is on the increase aloft. Surface moisture is also rebounding,
with dew points currently ranging from the lower 60s north of the
Mountain Parkway to around 70 in the south. Given the influx of
clouds and low level moisture, went ahead and raised lows in the
southwest. Will reassess the POPs a bit later this evening, but
the overall increase towards dawn looks on target. Updates have
been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place across eastern
Kentucky today and most of tonight, before an area of low
pressure finally brings showers and storms back to the area. The
latest model data, especially the NAM12 model, is suggesting that
showers and storms will move into the forecast a bit sooner than
previously thought, and be a bit more widespread. That being said,
adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest model guidance. The
best chance for showers and storms on Monday will still be during
the afternoon hours, with the rain tapering off from northwest to
southeast Monday night. The weather system that will produce our
rain tomorrow and tomorrow night is forecast to move slowly off to
the east. The proximity of this low will allow isolated to
scattered showers and storms to linger along the VA and TN borders
through late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As far as
rainfall amounts go, the latest NAM guidance is producing the
highest totals, which are likely overdone across the forecast area
as a whole. Instead adjusted the blended model precip amounts
toward the latest NAM amounts, especially along the VA and TN
borders for Monday. In general, most locations could see around
one quarter of an inch of rain Monday and Monday night, with
locally higher amounts possible with any thunderstorms.
Temperatures should continue to run slightly below normal during
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 457 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

The models are in good agreement through the end of the work
week, with ridging ruling across the southeastern CONUS, while
more modest short waves move through generally flattening flow to
the north. By next weekend, there is model disagreement with
regards to whether the ridge will breakdown or not. The ECMWF has
more troughing across the Mississippi Valley, while the GFS holds
onto ridging through the end of the week.

For eastern Kentucky, generally near normal temperatures, with
somewhat humid conditions will be in place through the majority of
the period. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s, with lows in
the mid 60s. A small chance of storms will threaten the south on
Tuesday, before better rain chances return through the mid-week,
with a passing warm front to contend with, accompanied by some mid
level support to the north. A cold front will approach from the
northwest by Friday, before washing out over us on Saturday.
Weaker high pressure will then provide generally dry weather by
Sunday, with slightly less humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

Mainly VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, and
aside from localized valley fog in southeast Kentucky, should
persist until around dawn. An upper level disturbance passing
over is expected to bring showers, mainly on Monday morning,
resulting in MVFR conditions for some locations. Most of the
showers will taper off by early afternoon, with a return to mostly
VFR conditions. However, there is a potential for a few
thunderstorms to develop late in the day or in the evening. At
this point, there is too much uncertainty to include anything more
than VCTS in TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



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