Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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027
FXUS63 KJKL 261753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
153 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

Continuing to see some mid-high clouds stream in across central
and southern Kentucky, while another subtle upper wave has brought
another batch of these into the upper Ohio Valley. Diurnal cumulus
will continue to develop this afternoon as a cool/dry summer day
remains on tap across eastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

A dry air mass is in place locally under a large scale eastern
CONUS trough. A shortwave trough moving through the larger scale
flow will approach tonight and move through on Tuesday. Models are
indicating mid/upper level saturation with this system. The
main question is whether we will see just virga, or if rain will
make it to the ground. Nothing more than 20-30% POP appears
justified at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

The extended looks to start off warm and dry, as a ridge of high
pressure remains in place across the region Tuesday night through
Thursday morning. After that, a series of upper level weather
systems and surface fronts will move across the eastern third of the
CONUS. These systems will bring periods of showers and storms to
eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the upcoming weekend. The
latest model guidance is suggesting that the highest probabilities
of showers and storm will occur Friday through Saturday, as a
southeastward moving cold front interacts with a northward surge of
warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures during the
extended look to be around normal for the time of year, with daily
highs in the 80s and nightly lows in the 60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

North/northwest winds will remain in the 5-10 knot range this
afternoon, with a few gusts of 10-15 mph possible. Lower cumulus
clouds will dissipate this evening as another batch of mid-high
clouds rolls in from the northwest. A weak upper level
disturbance and cool front will bring a slim chance for rain
showers tonight into Tuesday. Have inserted VCSH mention for now
at all sites as coverage continues to look questionable regarding
impacts at any specific terminal(s). Given the expected light
intensity and overall limited coverage of this rain, have kept VFR
conditions in play at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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