Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280632
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE REACHED THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE RIDGES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S...CREATING A NICE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST AS A WHOLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS KENTUCKY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE 18 GMT MODELS
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE BIG STORY IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH IN
THE TIMING AND TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF. SPC PUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
ACTUALLY THINK 5 PERCENT MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ABOUT THE ONLY FAVORABLE
FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH MIGHT ENHANCE THE
DOWNDRAFTS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAST ENOUGH
SO THAT FLOODING IS NOT A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED
AS A SHARP TROUGH PLOWS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
ALREADY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BE DEEP AND COLD AND LIKELY BRING A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RATHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND WE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS A BIT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FRIDAY EVENING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY GOES FROM WEST TO
NORTH...SO UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS NOT IDEAL TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

A 1030 MB HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S). AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE A KILLING FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MID 20S.
THE MODERATING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENGAGES IN ADVANCE OF WHAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TAF SITES
WILL ONLY FEATURE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. THERE
COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER STORM OR SHOWER
COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS






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