Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN
PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL
HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL
LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS
GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN
PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A
MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO
ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO EASTERN KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY DESPITE
THE APPROACH ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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