Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

711
FXUS63 KJKL 021014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.