Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230907

National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

The general model consensus is calling for an unusually deep area
of low pressure to continue moving eastward across the Tennessee
valley tonight, and eventually across the Carolinas and then
offshore Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As the low
rotates across the TN valley tonight and during the day Monday,
we can expect to see numerous light to moderate rain showers
moving across the area. The rain will taper off very slowly today
and tonight, and should be exiting eastern Kentucky by late
Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts across far southeastern Kentucky
could still lead to significant rises on creeks and streams, and
perhaps isolated instances of minor flooding through late Monday

Temperatures will be significantly cooler than what we saw over
the weekend, but will still be above normal for the time of year
today and tomorrow. Highs today and Tuesday are expected to max
out in the lower 50s both days. Tonights lows should only fall to
around 40, with ongoing precipitation and extensive cloud cover
acting to moderate things a bit in that regard.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

An amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS through the
end of the week. An upper level low will be moving from the
central Plains into the Great Lakes through the middle of the
week, eventually establishing broader troughing east of the
Rockies as it merges into troughing already established across
southeastern Canada. Broad cyclonic flow will then dominate across
the eastern half of the CONUS through the end of the week, with
a much colder and drier air mass remaining in place across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Tuesday night will feature mostly clear skies initially as a short
wave ridge axis moves through aloft. This will allow for valleys
to decouple and likely dip down into the mid 30s, while ridges
stay around 10 degrees warmer. Stronger return flow will be
ongoing into Wednesday, as deep surface low pressure passes by to
our northwest and north. Gusty south to southwest winds will allow
for highs to return to around the 60 degree mark one last time. A
few sprinkles/light rain showers will be possible as the
attendant cold front moves through the region.

Several short wave troughs will then move through the area at
times through the rest of the week, bringing periodic bouts of
light precipitation. Pops have come up for Thursday, however,
temperatures will still be warm enough for a rain/snow mix and QPF
looks limited. Beyond Thursday, cold air aloft will support
mainly flurries/light snow showers at times. Moisture continues to
look limited and the progged low level flow remains more
westerly, less than ideal for upslope enhancement. Highs from
Friday through Sunday will average in the 30s, with lows in the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

The airports across eastern Kentucky will experience widespread
light to moderate rain showers through 22 or 23Z today, before the
rain finally being to taper off. MVFR to LIFR conditions will be
possible through the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. The
worse conditions are expected to occur between 11 and 18Z today,
with low CIGS being the primary issue. Northeast winds will back
to northwesterly through the night and into Monday with speeds
increasing to 10-12 knots, while also becoming gusty at times.




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