Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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