Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210053 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
853 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST...BUT
SO FAR...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN HOLDING IT TO A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE LATEST HRRR STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MAINLY ADJUST
THE POP TIMING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST
IN THIS FLOW AND WAS OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HUDSON BAY REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
THAT IS DEPARTING HAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL KY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND INTO PARTS OF IN AS WELL AS WESTERN
KY AND MIDDLE TN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH
AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A COLDER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS SFC LOW FOR THU NIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE SFC
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COMBINATION SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...AND A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN BORDER AND THE
KY/TN/VA TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS HAD BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DRIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEADING UP TO THIS
EVENT. WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS
WELL...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AS MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BRIEFLY GOING UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S ANTICIPATED. SOME
OF THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH
COULD REACH 39 OR 40...SO A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO AS THU NIGHT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH
EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN IN
STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST PART OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
DRY AND BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE...BUT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THE
70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL WORK IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR
STATUS CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5
KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.