Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290709
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
309 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL



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