Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 290104 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.