Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
821 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE EXPANDED 20 PERCENT POP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z RUN SUGGESTING THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE...AND ANOTHER AREA OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL RESIDE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER THAN
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE ARE
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN BORDER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL






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