National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KJKL 162259
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. EARLIER...A THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH JOHNSON COUNTY
RESULTED IN ONE TREE DOWN AND AND A ONE INCH HAIL REPORT. SINCE
THEN...THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY. A LINE OF STORMS
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE. ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO NEW ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE
NEEDED. THE POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEY
HAVE BEEN DUMPING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME OVER SOME
LOCATIONS. NO REPORTS OF ANY HAIL HAVE COME IN...HOWEVER THE RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME HAIL ALOFT IN THE BIGGER STORMS. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRONG...BUT HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF NEEDING TO ISSUE A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS AS TO
DETERMINING HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. USED A MOS BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE DRIER NAM RUN. AN ILL DEFINED FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM AND THEN SORT OF REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BIG
QUESTION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IS WHETHER SOME WAVES WILL FORM
OF THE FRONT. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
DITCHES RUNNING FULL AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS MIGHT BE A FACTOR. IN
ANY CASE...THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PART
OF THE FORECAST WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
LIKELY PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF FORECAST AREA TO START TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS LESS CERTAIN. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE...AN UPTICK IN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AGAIN
BY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR NORTH. HOWEVER WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL LEAN TOWARDS NEIGHBORING WFO
FORECASTS...AND WILL GO WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON THESE DAYS.
MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE STANDARD BLENDED LOAD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN PATTERN LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BECOMES MURKY WITH DECREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT...BUT WITH EASTERN KY REMAINING ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES DURING THE COMING WEEK. THE PATTERN COULD BE CONDUCIVE
TO MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT TIMING AT THIS POINT IS UNCERTAIN. BEST BET
IS TO FOLLOW THE BLENDED LOAD FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS. DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS NEAR THE TAF STATIONS WILL
FACTOR INTO THE MORNING MIST/FOG FORECAST. HAVE PUT IN SOME IFR CIGS
AND VSBY FOR FOR SME AND LOZ AS THEY ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THEM. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
IN THE MORNING. THE FOG/MIST WILL BE BREAKING OUT AROUND 13Z AND THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ