Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290143
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED CELLS SOUTH INTO TN...THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS JUST ABOUT DONE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
INSTABILITY HAS DEPLETED AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT ITSELF HAS
ALREADY PUSHED INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEREFORE IN ADDITION TO
DROPPING THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO INCLUDE THE
LATEST OBS AND INTERPOLATED BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP OFF
FASTER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THIS REQUIRED A
NEW ZFP TO BE ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AS OF 2230Z A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EAST OF I-75. OBSERVATIONS WITH THE LINE HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY JUST GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL. MOST GUSTS
WITH THIS LINE AND BASICALLY THE FRONT HAVE BEEN UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE TRENDS WITH THIS LINE HAS HAD IT SHEARED QUITE A BIT
LEAVING COVERAGE TO BE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS
HOLD ONTO A STALLING OF THE FRONT AND BASED ON TRENDS...WILL HOLD ON
TO THIS CONCEPT AND KEEP PRECIP HANGING AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE UPDATED THE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW PERIOD. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDED ADDRESSED FOR THIS UPDATE BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE SENT A NEW ZFP
TO ADDRESS THE LESSENING OF POPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE IF SHOWER ACTIVITY SPIKES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES AGAINST THE EASTERN RANGES BORDERING VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS IT MOVES...IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY AND SHOULD BE MAKING IT THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE NON/EXCLUSIVE TO THE RAIN SHOWERS...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL NIGHTFALL /LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/ AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
WIND...THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE OUT THERE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH WEAKER AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED OR MODELED. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT MUCH OF
EASTERN KY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NE CANADA OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A STRONG TROUGHING PATTERN. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH NW FLOW USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FROM THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CANADA. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE
TOMORROW. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE RANGE...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGREES ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS TO DROP OUT INTO THE UPPER
30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED AS A SHARP TROUGH PLUNGES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
STRONG UL VORT EMBEDDED IN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEP AND COLD...IT WILL LIKELY BRING A KILLING FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STRONG RIDGING MOVES IN QUICKLY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE UL VORT
QUICKLY DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR CWA. THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE VORT SKIRTS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST. A STRONGER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE THE LINE OF
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS QUITE LOW
OF ONE MOVING NEAR A TAF SITE. MOST CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. LOCATIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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