Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
152 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TN VALLEYS. DID BRING POPS DOWN A BIT JUST GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE
RETURNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE COME IN WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END LIKELY POPS...BUT CUT BACK THE QPF...AS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST LOOK MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST...BUT
SO FAR...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN HOLDING IT TO A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE LATEST HRRR STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MAINLY ADJUST
THE POP TIMING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST
IN THIS FLOW AND WAS OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HUDSON BAY REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
THAT IS DEPARTING HAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL KY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND INTO PARTS OF IN AS WELL AS WESTERN
KY AND MIDDLE TN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH
AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A COLDER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS SFC LOW FOR THU NIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE SFC
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COMBINATION SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...AND A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN BORDER AND THE
KY/TN/VA TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS HAD BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DRIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEADING UP TO THIS
EVENT. WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS
WELL...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AS MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BRIEFLY GOING UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S ANTICIPATED. SOME
OF THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH
COULD REACH 39 OR 40...SO A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO AS THU NIGHT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH
EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN IN
STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST PART OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
DRY AND BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE...BUT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THE
70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEEING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WE ARE STRUGGLING GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE
AND THE GENERALLY SHEARED OUT SYSTEM. THOSE WHO DID RECEIVE RAIN
WILL HAVE TO BEST CHANCES OF SEEING FALLING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A
BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. GENERALLY SLOWLY BRING
MOST SITES TO MVFR BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AND RIGHT NOW KEPT WITH
THE LOWER VIS...HOWEVER THINK THE BIGGER RESTRICTION WILL BE THE
CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD DAWN DO BRING SITES DOWN
TO IFR WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOWER LAYERS AND ALSO INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE. DID OPT TO MIX
THIS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AND BRING TAFS SITES BACK TO
MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EVENTUALLY COMING OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ


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