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000
FXUS63 KJKL 090600
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
100 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. RECENT
MODEL DATA AND TRENDS DO POINT TOWARD LOWER QPF AND THE 0Z NAM MAY BE
ON TRACK FOR THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE. WHEN
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST IT SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
NORTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS TO BE RISES
ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS RISES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
BY LATE MONDAY.

WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INITIALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OH AND MS VALLEYS HAS TEMPORARILY TIGHTENED...BUT
SHOULD SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WIND GRIDS WERE UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD. A EXTENSIVE AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE...ANOTHER SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WE MAY SEE TONIGHT. GFS REMAINS QUITE BEEFY WITH OVER AN INCH...WHILE
THE ECMWF AND NAM REMAIN MUCH LESS. GOING TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE
GROUND WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNTS...GOING TO CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH AND EXTEND IT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR
OUT. ONE LAST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
TIME AROUND...ENOUGH COLD AIR WORKS BACK ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW OR POSSIBLY SLEET. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP THIS TIME
AROUND...SO ITS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAY NOT
EVEN MEASURE. THUS...ANY SNOW/SLEET SHOULD NOT BE A HUGE DEAL THIS
TIME AROUND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS. WHILE COLDER AIR MAY
WRAP BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE RAIN DEPARTS...IT SHOULD
LAG BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...KEEPING THINGS ALL RAIN TOMORROW. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S...AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TO START THE EXTENDED
AS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER NODE OF THIS TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
THE FIRST/S PATH MOVING BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE PATTERN ADJUSTS IN THE MAIN TROUGH/S WAKE...A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW LURKING NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL START TO COME EAST ON
THURSDAY IN ALL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS FIRST WAVE THAN THE GFS...BUT THEY BOTH WEAKEN IT...AS IT MOVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOLLOWS EAST INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...QUICKER AND STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE LARGER
SPREAD THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION BUT RAISES THE IT
WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND AND A SUBTLE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF WITH NEXT WEEK/S SYSTEM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER
THE ARCTIC FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE
AREA WILL BE FIRMLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAKE ALL THE
PCPN FROZEN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A SEASONABLY COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
KEEPING THE WX QUIET. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
EAST KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FROZEN PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF/S
COLDER PROFILE AND MORE EXTREME SOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW
TAKING OFF ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA PREVAILS...WHEN
COMPARED TO THE MORE MILDER GFS. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH MID LEVEL
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD...BUT DID ADJUST SKY COVER AND
POPS TOWARD THE LATEST NAM12 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACCEPTING MORE OF A
BLEND...NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF...FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. DID ALSO ADD IN SOME
MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE EFFECTS TO THE LOWS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

AREAS OF -RA AND PATCHY -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH DAWN THOUGH MORE BREAKS WILL BECOME APPARENT AS DAYLIGHT
APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD BUT PICK UP FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4-6 KTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-
080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY