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000
FXUS63 KJKL 251809
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
109 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS FEATURE THE RAIN JUST NORTH OF I-64 AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING LIKE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH SOME POSSIBLE TWEAKS STILL
NEEDED TO THE DIURNAL TREND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS TEMPS MAY
STILL BE STEADY OR DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECENT MODEL UPDATES CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
INTO TO MORROW MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AND PUT IN CATEGORICAL
POPS INTO THE FORECAST...ALSO TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. AS WELL...ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BUT AS MORNING
ARRIVES AND MINIMAL RADIATIONAL HEATING BEGINS FOR THE DAY...THE
VALLEYS WILL HAVE A ROUGH TIME WARMING UP IF NOT REMAINING STEADY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WITH THESE
UPDATES...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME AREAS MAY BE A BIT
EARLIER AND MAY CHANGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATES AND ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS BUT TOTALS LOOK
MUCH THE SAME AT THIS POINT WITH A NEEDED HIGHLIGHT OF SPS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER