Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ON TAP FOR
TODAY...WITH THE FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO STILL ON
TRACK IS OUR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A NASTY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE EXPERIENCING SOME FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BY 8Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF
WINTRY PRECIP AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OUR
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MODELS WERE STILL IN A BIT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ICE TOTALS FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR
COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...THIS
INCLUDES THE NAM12...GFS...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALL STRONGLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER ON THURSDAY
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ABOUT AN INCH MORE OF SNOW THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. OVERALL THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT WILL
NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST PACKAGE
ISSUANCE...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOW
AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD. SEE THE
UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT FOR FORECAST SNOW AND ICE
AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WAYNE COUNTY. IN
FACT...AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD...MONTICELLO WAS REPORTING A
TEMPERATURE OF 62...LONDON 62...AND THE WHITESBURG MESONET SITE
REPORTING 62 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
STEADILY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO INVADE THE
AREA...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS AT
THIS POINT LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM FOR ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE BELOW FREEZING. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL
BE COLDEST LONGEST...AND WILL THEREFORE SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THE
UPCOMING WINTER STORMS. OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE FAR EAST PICKING LESS SNOW AND A BIT MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS ON THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY TO
LONDON TO EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD...WITH
LOWS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS JKL...WHICH WAS SOCKED IN
WITH THICK FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND IN EFFECT WASHES OUT THE FOG.
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS OF IFR IF THICKER
FOG IS ABLE TO FORM OR DURING INTENSE BRIEF DOWN POURS OF RAIN.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL AROUND 0Z
THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE
RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN
BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z. GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE CHALLENGING AT OUR AIRPORTS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



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