Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190730

National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

The period will be met with upper level ridge breaking down and
heights gradually falling, as an upper level low ejects into the
upper Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will eject
with the upper low and a trailing cold front will begin to march
east. This will spread rain showers and thunderstorms east into
the region early Sunday morning into Sunday night. Main concern
will be for some of these storms could bring brief heavy rainfall
given the higher PWAT values and fairly high freezing levels.
Otherwise storms should be tame given the lack of shear based on
the forecast soundings. In the wake of the front a surface high
will progress east as heights continue to decline. This will bring
drying conditions to the region and probably some ridge/valley
splits on Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The models do begin to diverge some as we move through the
remainder of the forecast period. However, the latest ECMWF seems
to be leaning toward the 00Z GFS. A deep upper low is expected to
form in the Upper Midwest and this will progress east. The base of
this trough will swing through the region by late in the period.
That said, a front will progress through the region Late Tuesday
into Wednesday. Given the timing remains more uncertain on this
trough and how it will evolve will lean closely to the blended
POPs for now. Despite the uncertainties the amplitude of the
trough will bring temperatures down near and even below normal for
this time of year by the end of the week, with afternoon highs
remaining in the upper 60s Wednesday into Thursday. The CIPS
analog and CPC also show this in the 6 to 10 day temperature


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

A passing short wave trough will initiate scattered convection
across southeastern Kentucky mainly between 08 and 14z. Locations
along and south of a line from KSME to KPBX will see the higher
chances through Friday morning. Will maintain VFR; however, any
direct hit from a passing shower or thunderstorm will result in
temporary IFR or worse conditions. The convective coverage will
likely diminish into early this afternoon, with a few storms
possibly redeveloping late in the day. Winds will remain light and
variable through this morning, before becoming southwest at 5 to
10 kts during the afternoon hours.




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