Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
756 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 756| AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Have updated to blend early morning obs into the forecast grids,
with little overall impact.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

A "dirty" subtropical upper ridge persists over the region, but
is weakening. Forecast soundings suggest that daytime heating will
lead to development of scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
With a lack of any significant upper level support, they are
expected to again die out during the evening. The upper ridge will
weaken further on Monday, and surface high pressure is expected to
pass east southeast over the Great Lakes under west northwest flow
aloft. Models indicate advection of somewhat drier low level air
into our area in the flow around the surface high on Monday. This
will probably keep convective precip more limited, and only slight
chance pops are being used.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Our weather pattern looks quiet through the upcoming work week.
The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide
westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures
above normal and humidity elevated. An isolated thunderstorm will be
possible over our higher terrain along the VA border in the warm and
muggy airmass Tuesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down by mid week
and we transition to northwest flow aloft. A weak and moisture
starved cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night,
possibly sparking a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky
Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure will then build in behind
this front for Thursday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the

The forecast for Friday into the Labor Day weekend is low
confidence. Longer range forecast models want to develop a tropical
system over the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northeast into the
Southeast U.S. as a shortwave dives in from the northwest. The GFS
and GEM bring some moisture into our southeast counties while the
ECMWF keeps everything on the other side of the Appalachian
Mountains. The model blend did offer some PoPs as early as Friday in
our southeast but trimmed this back some with the drier airmass over
our region and the low confidence outcome with the potential
tropical system.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

Fog is affecting many valley locations again, but has had minimal
impacts at TAF sites so far. Any fog is expected to dissipate by
mid morning, leaving mainly VFR until late tonight. The exception
will be localized IFR in scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening. Fog is expected to develop again in valleys
late tonight, but in light of this morning`s obs, it is
questionable whether there will be any impact at TAF sites. If
precip becomes widespread enough in the evening, the rain-
cooled/dampened air could provide a better set-up for fog. Outside
of thunderstorms, winds will generally be less than 10kts.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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