Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

The short term discussion will be issued shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of
the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this
shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the
potential for more widespread showers over the weekend.
Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane
season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move
onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic,
this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through
the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely
be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the
East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be
the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky.

Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the
northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during
the second half of the week with energy potentially extending
southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to
kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest
its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is
still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these
features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best
confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF
models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to
our northwest.

Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended
period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The
normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Localized fog was affecting a few places late tonight, but most
of the area (including reporting TAF sites) had vfr conditions at
TAF issuance. Mid and high level clouds were abundant, but were on
an overall decline, and that trend should continue through the
morning. This will allow continued cooling of our already moist
air, which will allow more fog to develop. Non ridgetop sites are
forecast to fall to MVFR or IFR, but it is not a high confidence
forecast. Conditions will improve after sunrise, with all
locations expected to return to VFR during the morning. After
heating and destabilization on Friday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon and last into the


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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