Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 252109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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