Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251348

National Weather Service Jackson KY
948 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Issued at 948 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017

Surface analysis shows low pressure still resides off the Carolina
Coast line and we remain in the east to northeast flow at the
surface. However, there is a decent southeast 850MB jet punching
into Appalachia and this is aiding in inducing some light showers
in the far east this morning. This jet is expected to decrease
and this will lead to a loss in rain showers. No major changes
needed for this forecast update.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017

A few showers have made it into our far eastern counties, so
tossed in a chance of rain for the morning hours, mainly impacting
our eastern most 3 counties. Showers should wind down by mid day
as the mid level ridge works towards the region. No other changes
planned at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017

An upper level low will slowly push north along the Atlantic coast
through Wednesday as shortwave ridging pushes into eastern
Kentucky. Presently, moisture from the system off to the southeast
is starting to work back west across the Appalachians, but hasn`t
been having much luck making the long journey over the mountains.
This will likely continue to be the case despite the models
trying to have precipitation spread back into our eastern counties
this morning. We could see a few sprinkles, but we will be hard
pressed to see much measurable precipitation. In fact, latest
radar trends continue to show the front edge of precipitation
barely making any progress over the mountains. Thus, will go back
towards a dry forecast for today with some early day clouds. As
the ridging spreads in the clouds should gradually thin and
diminish through the day. This will set up a couple pleasant days
as highs today will be well into the 70s. Weak return flow on
Wednesday will boost highs back into the 80s. With little or no
precipitation, rivers should continue to recede through the

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017

The models remain in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to affect the CONUS through the period. The central CONUS
will be under the influence of a trough, with several short waves
to translate across the Mississippi Valley. This will result in
generally unsettled weather across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys,
although unseasonable warmth will also accompany this pattern.

A cold front will approach and eventually move through eastern
Kentucky late Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. This front
will be shearing out as it moves through, and instability will
likely be modest; however, given the stout 0-3km shear in place,
can not rule out some damaging winds, and have continued to
mention this in the HWO.

A developing warm front will be nearby Friday and Friday night,
with POPs ramping back up to good chance, especially across the
Bluegrass. This boundary will lift far enough north by Saturday,
to only allow for a rain showers at peak heating. By Sunday, a
robust system will be taking shape to our west, with a more stout
cold front approaching and eventually moving through Sunday into
Monday. For now, have accepted the highest given POP for Sunday
night; however, this may shift in time. The front will be exiting
on Monday, with rain chances decreasing from west to east through
the day.

Temperatures will average well above normal through the period,
with highs generally in the 80s Friday through Sunday, while lows
average in the 50s and 60s. As was mentioned previously, this will
ensure April of 2017 as one of the warmest Aprils on record
across eastern Kentucky.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Some patchy IFR/MVFR cigs have developed across the area this
morning mainly impacting our eastern areas, including KJKL and
KSJS. Will carry these low cigs for the next few hours this
morning before cigs gradually improve towards midday or early
afternoon. Some valley fog will also burn off this morning, but
this is not currently impacting any TAF sites. After VFR
conditions and light winds this afternoon, valley fog will once
again dominate across the region tonight. While the fog could
creep into some of the TAF sites, not confident enough to include
at this time.




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