Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220600 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure continues to build into the region behind the cold
front that crossed the region on Sunday. More open terrain
locations and ridgetops are getting a little bit of mixing keeping
fog from becoming that widespread and dense there. However, some
deeper valley locations generally from around the Mtn Parkway
south are experiencing dense fog per regional AWOS and public
reports. The hourly grids have been been updated to account for a
couple hours earlier fog formation in those locations. Otherwise,
the previous forecast is largely on track with no other changes
needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Just finished freshening up the hourly grids with the latest obs
data to establish new trends. The forecast is still on track
tonight with areas of fog, dense in places, expected to form later
tonight. Clear skies and near calm winds will also be on tap
across eastern Kentucky. No further updates are planned at this
time.

UPDATE Issued at 737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Beautiful weather is in store for the residents of eastern
Kentucky over the next few days. A few low level clouds will move
across the skies this evening and tonight, with light to calm
winds expected. The one weather feature of note tonight will be
fog. With clear skies, calm winds, and ample surface moisture, the
stage will be set for fog to form across the area. In fact, most
locations will likely see fog late tonight, with the valleys and
locations near bodies of water seeing the densest and longest
lasting fog. The forecast remains on track with no changes
planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

A surface cold front is currently aligned from central New York
down along the central and southern Appalachians. Broad high
pressure centered across the southern Plains is moving in, along
with a much more pleasant air mass, with dew points in the 50s.
Aloft, a trough axis is swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley regions.

Just a few showers remain across far southeastern
Kentucky, with these likely ending in the next hour or so.
Skies will become mostly clear tonight, as high pressure builds in
at the surface, while heights recover aloft. Given the recent
rainfall and temperatures getting down to near or just less than
60, would expect areas of dense fog to form.

On Monday, the fog will burn off by the mid to late morning, with
a beautiful rest of the day on tap. Highs will be in the upper
70s to around 80, with lower relative humidity. The lower dew
points in place will set up another cool night as skies remain
mostly clear. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s, with any areas
of fog likely more restricted to the river valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Models are in very good agreement with the mid/upper level
pattern into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will push east
through the midweek period, with return flow bringing slightly
milder air into the region. Humidity will also make a slow return
into Wednesday, but should be nothing like we have seen recently.
Despite the increase in humidity for the midweek period, forcing
will remain non-existent, keeping rain chances at at bay. As the
high gets squashed into the southeast by Thursday and Friday, a
shortwave will push north and east across the Ohio river valley
with rain chances increasing to our west and north. Forcing from
this wave will only graze our northern counties late Thursday,
with a slight chance mainly along and north of I-64. As this
feature departs Thursday night, a cold front will spill south and
wash out as it tries to move south. What is left of the boundary
could be over the area on Friday leading to a few isolated showers
or storms with some weak surface convergence possible. Either way,
this shouldn`t be a big deal. High pressure will strengthen into
the upcoming weekend, with a return to dry and mild conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Skies are generally mostly clear to clear at this time with high
pressure building in. Fog so far has mainly affected the deeper
valleys and non TAF site locations. Just enough mixiness appears
to be present at this time and this should linger for the next
couple of hours to generally hold off fog there for now. However,
by the 9Z to 12Z window the gradient should ease enough for
some fog either developing at the TAF sites or lifting in from
nearby valleys. This fog should be in the MVFR or IFR range, with
vis likely remaining above airport mins at the TAF sites including
SME given more optimistic trends in recent guidance. The fog
should lift and dissipate by 14z, giving way to VFR. A few
diurnally driven CU near 5KT may be experienced. Winds will be
light and variable with the high in place.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP



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