Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







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