Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT ADVECTS IN. THIS IS
SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT. WITH THE MID 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS HANGING AROUND
IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP WITH THE HIGH...FOG
WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ONLY TO ADD DENSE FOG TO THE ZONES.
BESIDES UPDATING WITH THE LATEST TEMPS AND DEW POINT POINTS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE SENT OUT SOME NEW ZONES WITH THE
DENSE FOG MENTION AND SENT THE GRIDS TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST SENT OUT THE FINAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING. ENDED UP
GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL
LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND IN
VALLEYS SEEING LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES FROM DAWN THROUGH SUN
UP. REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED PREVIOUSLY OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. LASTLY...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO MENTION ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY
FOG LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS THAT VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT
THIS TIME. IN FACT...MOST OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT. SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE A STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEY FLOORS
BELOW. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE FINAL FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING. WILL SEND OUT AN
OFFICIAL UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT LATER IN THE
SHIFT WITH FINAL GRID EDITS AND GENERAL WORDING UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTS IN THE VICINITY OF KY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONE OF THEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE OTHER MEANDERS TO THE WEST. THE VORT THAT MEANDERS TO
THE WEST WILL COME BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
FEATURE IS HANDLED GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT ITS EMBEDDED IN...BUT
THE MODELS AT LEAST ALL AGREE ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY.

MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVES BY THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH A
DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE 60 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED BOTH
NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION
WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS TODAY SPAWNING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TIME AND THIS MAY SPAWN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OVER OUR FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH A PIECE OF A WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AND MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS OR DEEP SOUTH...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL
OF CHOICE...THROUGH THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENTLY HANDLING THE WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
DOMINANT RIDGE VERY WELL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO
TEMPER THE HEAT SOME...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN WELL INTO THE
80S EACH DAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND HAVE
INDICATED THIS AT THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO THE DAY...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS DEVELOPING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ALL DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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