Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 271448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED NDFD TO ADD MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN AREA OF SC IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO MIDDLESBORO. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD OF
81 AT LONDON IS IN JEOPARDY BUT THE RECORD OF 83 AT JACKSON WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A FEW MORE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING A VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOWER
80S...THESE WILL VERY MUCH BE IN PLAY TODAY. THE RECORD AT LONDON IS
81...WHILE THE RECORD AT JACKSON IS 83. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN GETTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
TOO MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO TH WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE HARD
TO ACHIEVE DEWPOINTS MUCH INTO THE 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS IN SOME
AREAS ARE STILL IN THE 30S THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE...HAVE OPTED TO GO MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON
DEWPOINTS...PUTTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR
LOWER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE WIND
TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BY LATE EVENING. RIDGES SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TO START THE DAY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN. RECORDS MAY AGAIN
BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH THE RECORD AT JACKSON 78...AND LONDON IS 84
(MAY NOT GET THIS HIGH). SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MARCH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z. GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEST
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD YIELD GOOD COVERAGE. THE ONLY QUESTION AT PLAY
IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION REACHES PRIOR TO 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST
(CATEGORICAL)...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE EAST...TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS POOLING
TO AROUND 60 JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THUS...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HWO THAT A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT THE SIMILARITY FADES WITH TIME LOWERING THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THEY ALL START WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ITS LOWER HEIGHTS PRESSING SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. THE
ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GEM...TAKES A WAVE CYCLING
THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES IT DURING THE
LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY...MOVING IT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY VIA
KENTUCKY BY 06Z THURSDAY. FLAT FLOW FOLLOWS FOR A BRIEF TIME IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW HEIGHTS FROM A VERY LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH
AMERICAN PATTERN ALSO FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TAKES PLACE TO THE NORTH
OF KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS TAKE THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
ITS WAKE. THIS IS A BRIEF OCCURRENCE...THOUGH...AS RIDGING FROM THE
WEST QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...MOVES INTO THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION AND PUMPS HEIGHTS BACK UP OVER KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACCEPTED GIVEN THE BROAD PATTERN
SIMILARITIES...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF WILL BE FAVORED WHERE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES EXIST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT DRYING EAST KENTUCKY OUT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW RAMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN
PUSH A MOSTLY DRY...BUT SUBSTANTIVE...COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS
WILL LIKELY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA...LIKELY ENDING
THE GROWING SEASON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY JUST OVER THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. DID ALSO ADD
SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JUST
SOME PESKY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. COULD SEE A BIT OF GUSTINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE JUST SOME VALLEY
FOG IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN KEEP IT OUT
OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS






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