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000
FXUS63 KJKL 150010
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD...THIS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT. THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THIS
RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. ALSO...THE LOWEST
READINGS IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE RIVER FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO EASTERN KY...WITH LOWS ONCE
AGAIN DOWN IN THE 50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...WITH READINGS AROUND 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE
AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR NORTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND. THE 14/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LESS MOIST THAN THE 14/12Z RUN OF THE GFS. BASED ON
THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF
BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF. THE FORECAST DID NOT
CHANGE OVERALL...WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AS A SLUGGISH COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
INTERACTS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FIRE IN LARGE NUMBERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...AND RIGHT AT
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. IN GENERAL...THE
FORECAST WILL START OFF WARM AND WET...AND WILL END DRY AND A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS