Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270307 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A DISTURBANCE IS WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
REGION AND IS BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE
REGION. AWOS AND ASOS SITES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KY HAVE
REPORTED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE AIRMASS IS RATHER
DRY...SO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT FAR.
AT THIS POINT...PER RADAR AND SFC OBS IT APPEARS THAT THE LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IS NEARING THE SOMERSET TO JACKSON TO SANDY HOOK
LINE. ONLY ONE KY MESONET SITE IN CENTRAL KY HAS RECEIVED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS.

THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT IT SEEMS TO CLEARLY BE HOLDING
TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE HRRR IS FORECASTING. THE WINDS ARE BIT
MORE NORTHERLY THAN IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REFLECTIVE OF
THE MOST RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS AS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
UPSTREAM TRENDS. AT THIS POINT...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN ORDER AND AN SPS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF FLUFF
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY ONLY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OR NOTHING AT
ALL. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...WITH UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FRI NIGHT APPEARS TO BE COLDER ON AVERAGE THAN
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE EAST WHILE A
DEEP LOW IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FROM THIS IS MOVING INTO KENTUCKY AND THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. ON REGIONAL RADAR...THE LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO SETTLE DEEPER
INTO THE STATE. EAST KENTUCKY SAW PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS CLINGING TO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE INBOUND FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY NOW...AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO SPIKE UP TO NEAR 40
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WHILE ONLY LOW 30S WERE ACHIEVED IN THE NORTHWEST.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST WHILE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S ARE FOUND IN THE EAST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AND
LARGER TROUGH THAT SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING ITS CORE ENERGY ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AMIDST REBOUNDING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
WITH THESE HEIGHT RISES AND MAY BE GETTING AHEAD OF ITSELF. GIVEN
THE GENERAL AGREEMENT...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR...
RAP13...AND NAM12 FOR WX SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS ARRIVING ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC AIR POURING BACK INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST PLACES BY
DAWN THANKS TO THE CAA WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FRIDAY MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 20S BY MIDDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY ON TAP FOR THE VALLEYS
AND MORE OPEN AREAS...WHILE SOME LATE ARRIVING HIGH CLOUDS AND THE
INVERSION MAY SPARE THE RIDGES THE COLDEST OF THE AIR. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT TO JUMP START THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE
AT NIGHT. AFTER THAT...USED THE SUPERBLEND TO INITIATE THE GRIDS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR CHANGES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
ON THE HIGH SIDE...CLOSER TO THE MET...OF RATHER LOW MOS GUIDANCE
TONIGHT...THEN SIMILAR FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BAJA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA
IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP STORM TRACKS SOMEWHAT CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL IT APPEARS WE WILL BE GETTING INTO A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THE APPROACH OF EARLY SPRING.
ACTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER...PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS ETC. WILL
DEPEND MORE ON EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ALONG WITH THE WATER CONTENT
PRESENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA...POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED SHOULD MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION WE
REALIZE THROUGH THE PERIOD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOOT OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AREA IN RAPID FIRE FASHION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SECOND
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE THIRD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SFC LOWS TO TRACK
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTORS OF
THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND EACH
PASSING SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR THE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF EACH
NEW ROUND OF WEATHER. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEXT TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER A VERY COLD START FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS MORE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THOUGH OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...IS POSSIBLE
AS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAMP DATA POINTS TOWARD CONTINUED
MVFR WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRI...PAST 12Z...BUT UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ARE IN THE VFR RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT HIGH...BUT KEPT PERSISTENCE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS WHICH WAS IN
LINE WITH THE LAMP. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JP


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