Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 170503
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
103 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF QUITE AS FAST AS WAS FORECAST...AND HAVE
RAISED FORECAST 1ST PERIOD MINS A BIT. HOWEVER...MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING BY DAWN. WITH CIRRUS
IN THE SKIES IN MY NW COUNTIES...HAVE ALSO RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A BIT MORE CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE FALL FOR SOME
SPOTS...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND MID 30S ON THE RIDGES LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
ALREADY THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE IS DOWN TO 34 DEGREES WHILE
RIDGE TOP AND MORE OPEN SITES SUCH AS JKL AND LOZ ARE MILDER...
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NEAR TERM SKY...T...AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY ON THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH DRY DEW POINTS...GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES DID REBOUND FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS MOST PLACES AS THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. DID AN
UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS MAINLY
INVOLVED TAKING THEM DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN
VALLEYS. ALSO...MADE CORRESPONDING DIURNAL CURVE CHANGES GIVEN OUR
LIKELY QUICK DROP OFF IN THE VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...ADJUSTED DEW POINTS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. WITH THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE
NPW FOR THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING AND REISSUED THE HWO
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. THE GRID CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE FLOW TURNS
TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. THE TOUGHEST PART OF
THE FORECAST IS TIMING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS
THIS CAN REALLY EFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING AGAIN...HOWEVER
IT WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGES
STAYING A BIT WARMER. THE RIDGES WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO SOME
FROST...HOWEVER NOT THE HARD FREEZE THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 70 TOMORROW. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE MODEL BLEND AND CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. SOME
VALLEY FROST IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
INTENSE OR FAST AS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES PULL NORTHWARD. EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SPLIT WITH ENERGY TO MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...FORMING A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR AREA IS LEFT IN THE MIDDLE WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WITH
CORE OF WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. AS A RESULT OUR WEATHER
WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...REACHING THE
COMMONWEALTH AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT
SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS FIRST OF THE WEEK SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF. AS SUCH AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER COLD AIR MASS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
LARGEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
IN OUR WESTERN VALLEYS TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND SHEARED OUT ENERGY ALOFT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER WEATHER IS GENERALLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR
SHORTWAVE AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. ATTM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONG AND
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL





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