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000
FXUS63 KJKL 230758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
358 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

A period of drying is on the horizon and near record cool
temperatures possible early next week. That said, in the wake of
a cold front we will see failing heights and a building Canadian
surface high pressure. The models are in fair agreement on this
Canadian surface high pressure and matter of fact really strong
agreement in the GFS ensemble members. Also several reinforcing
waves will bring single digit 850MB temperatures into the region
for the first part of next week. These temperatures will be
significantly anomalous, with 500mb to 850mb temperatures expected
to be 3 plus standard deviations below normal for this time of
year.

At the surface, the coolest day may be Wednesday morning depending
on how cloud cover shakes out on Tuesday morning, but temperatures
in the low to mid 50s and some valleys could drop into the upper
40s. These kinds of temperatures will be close to record
temperatures for both days with JKL current record for Tuesday is
54 degrees and 53 degrees on Wednesday. However, our records at
JKL may be a little weaker compared to LOZ, where LOZ records
showing 48 degrees Tuesday and 50 degrees on Wednesday which may
be more difficult outside of valley locations. Temperatures by
Wednesday do warm, as the high pressure moves off toward the VA/NC
coast line and we see increased return flow. By Thursday, the
models show a little less agreement, but a wave could generate
some showers by the afternoon. Past this the CPC would suggest
more chances of precip becomes possible as we begin July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

A break in the action was ongoing at the start of the period, with
mostly VFR conditions. As the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy
approach from the southwest ahead of a cold front, low clouds are
expected to increase overnight, with much of the area expected to
see MVFR ceilings for a time late tonight or Friday morning,
followed by an improvement to largely VFR during the day Friday.
However, there is not a lot of confidence in the specifics of the
TAFS regarding timing of MVFR versus VFR into Friday afternoon.
The prospect of showers and thunderstorms will be rising during
the day Friday, with the most likely time for rain being late in
the day and in the evening. An eventual drop to IFR and low end
MVFR conditions is expected Friday evening, as a cold front
approaches and moves through.

Some of the storms and heavier showers on Friday afternoon and
early evening may bring high winds. Also concerning winds, LLWS
has been included in the TAFS tonight and into the day Friday,
until sufficient mixing occurs to dissipate it.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Saturday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL