911
FXUS63 KJKL 260450 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1250 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend, with
  temperatures gradually moderating each day. Heat indices peaking
  in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many locations
  through today, before gradually lowering into the 90s by
  Saturday.

- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
  through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

A lingering storm or two remains in the far eastern parts of the
state but should fade out through the next hour or so. Otherwise,
have mainly just included the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with freshened SAFs and zones with the HWO
updated as soon as the storms end.

UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to lose control of
the weather over eastern Kentucky. This has allowed a cluster of
thunderstorms to develop over the Bluegrass Region and additional
convection is working southeast on the initial outflow boundary.
These pulsers are briefly strong before collapsing with gusty
winds and a bout of heavy rain. These will continue to fade out
through mid evening with the loss of instability. Currently
temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid
light winds away from any storms, dewpoints are generally in the
low to mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to adjust
the PoPs through the night per radar and CAMs guidance. Also
touched up the valley fog expectations into dawn, Thursday. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

Upper ridging will gradually weaken through Thursday night as a
weak upper trough develops over the Southeast U.S. This will help
to increase shower and thunderstorm probabilities for Thursday
afternoon and evening.

A few isolated showers and/or storms are possible through early
this evening, but most areas will remain dry. More supportive
conditions for storms will remain mostly east and southeast of the
forecast area, but these more supportive conditions arrive for
Thursday afternoon and evening area-wide, along with the risk for
a stronger storm or two that could produce damaging winds.

Although lower confidence compared to previous days, the Heat
Advisory has been extended one more day through Thursday to
account for maximum heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
Meanwhile, one more night of record or near-record high minimum
temperatures are expected at our climate stations in Jackson and
London.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

Models are in good agreement that upper-level heights gradually
lower through the extended period, with a trough becoming
established over the Ohio River Valley this weekend and especially
into the first half of next week.

As the upper ridging weakens and slides east Friday, mid-level
southerly flow will increase over the area, which along with the
presence of mid-level dry air may present an environment
supportive of isolated microbursts producing locally damaging
winds.

As showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely each
day from Friday into next week, the increased cloud cover and
moisture will allow for high temperatures to gradually lower back
towards seasonal normals, while lows will also remain mild to warm
but also trend back below threatening daily records for high
minimums. The one aspect of the forecast that does not look to
change is the high humidity, with 70s continuing through at least
Tuesday if not also Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025

Weakening high pressure and ridging aloft will be over the region
through the TAF period resulting in light and variable winds. VFR
conditions will likely hold across the area with the exception of
late night/early morning fog in the valleys which may affect the
terminals for a time.

Though the potential is low, a stray shower or storm is possible
through early morning hours, and then again for this afternoon.
In addition to brief reductions below VFR conditions, gusty winds
will be possible in and near any showers/storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF