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000
FXUS63 KJKL 011214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

STRATOCU IS SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF
HERE...KEEPING THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SURFACE DRY AIR WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE
FROM DEVELOPING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE ON MONDAY...AND MAY BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF A
SHOWER NORTH OF I-64...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE REALLY NOT THAT GOOD EVEN
WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL...THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MILDER WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

THE MODELS ARE STILL ADJUSTING TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE WITH
PLENTY OF RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED. THEY DO COME IN LINE MORE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK ONCE A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STRONGER AND
DEEPER IN THE GFS THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF...MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE.
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD
WITH WEAK AND UNCONSOLIDATED ENERGY PACKETS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR KENTUCKY. THE MODELS
THEN AGREE THAT HEIGHTS WILL FURTHER SPIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OVER KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DIVING TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
WESTERN TROUGH AND SOUTHEAST RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF
ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE OPEN WESTERN TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST JUST PAST OUR AREA. THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL START TO WORK EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ITS NORTHERN CORE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WOULD SEND A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND THE STRENGTH
OF THIS PUSH REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH THE GFS DISCOUNTED MORE HEAVILY
ON THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK SFC PATTERN FAVORING MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BUT NOT MUCH LIFT OR FOCUS. FOR THIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR JUST
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING
WARM SECTOR OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER MILD TUESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT MORE
PROMINENTLY ON THURSDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL THEN PRESS
INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...PRESSED BY AN ARCTIC HIGH TO THE WEST...
FURTHER FOCUSING THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE STREAM. THIS AREA SHOULD THEN
SETTLE OVER EAST KENTUCKY FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSH
DEEPER INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SEND THE PCPN PRODUCING BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL BE MORE CAUTIOUS WITH THE TIMING OF
ANY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SATURDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD WITH POPS AND SKY COVER...BUT
DID ADJUST IT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF...PARTICULARLY EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AND ALSO NEXT SATURDAY. ALSO ADDED IN SOME SMALL
RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT AMPLE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT OTHER TIMES SHOULD KEEP NIGHT-TIME
TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...LEADING TO SOME LOW LEVEL (4-5KFT) CLOUDS BY
13-15Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME LOWERING WITH DRIER LOWER
LEVELS IN PLACE. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS