Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 061720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING. JUST DEALING WITH
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOADED IN THE LATEST
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS TO BETTER DEAL WITH LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 6 KFT
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
STORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ


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