Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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607
FXUS63 KJKL 171735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1235 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

Currently, temps are on the increase this afternoon as some
locations have already reached 60 degrees across the area. In
addition to this, as expected some of the RH reports are already
in the lower 30s percent range with a location or two in the upper
20s. Have updated the forecast to account for these trends. Winds
have been up out of the southwest with some gusts to about 18
knots.

UPDATE Issued at 919 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

Updated the forecast for today input the latest observations in
the grids. Refined the valley temps for the day and into tonight.
It seems that with the southwest flow increasing, there may not be
as much of a ridge to valley temperatures difference tonight
before the cloud cover rolls in ahead of the next disturbance. One
concern is with the strong southwest flow today gusting to 20
knots in some places, will some drier air be mixed to the surface
this afternoon, dropping our low 30 percent RH`s even lower. Will
monitor this heading into the day.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

The forecast is still on track early this morning. Today should
mark the beginning of a nice warm up across the area, with highs
still expected to max out in the low to mid 60s across the area.
Skies should be partly cloudy to mostly clear with southwesterly
winds of 5 to 10 mph. The latest obs were ingested into the
forecast to establish new trends, but no other changes to the
forecast were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

A ridge of high pressure will bring continued warm and dry weather
to eastern Kentucky today and tonight. Mostly clear skies and
generally southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph will prevail across the
area today and tonight. Cloud cover will begin to increase from
the southwest towards dawn tomorrow, and we will finally see
precipitation chances return, as an area of low pressure
approaches the area from the southwest. The first rain showers
are expected to begin moving into our southern counties early
Saturday morning. The rain will then gradually overspread the area
through out the day on Saturday, with the best rain chances
anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures should be well above normal both today and tomorrow,
with highs in the low to mid 60s expected today, and ranging from
the mid 50s to lower 60s on Saturday. Tonights lows are forecast
to bottom out in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

A split flow long wave pattern is progged across the CONUS through
the middle next week, with amplified, but generally progressive
systems to contend with in this regime. The models continue to be in
good agreement through the weekend on the small scale features, but
then begin to diverge by late in the period due to evolution and
timing differences.

There is high confidence in the well above normal temperatures
progged for the extended portion of the forecast. Highs on Sunday
will average in the low to mid 60s, with readings in the 65 to 70
degree range expected for Monday and Tuesday, and then in the mid
60s for Wednesday and Thursday. A few daily high records may be
threatened on Monday. Lows will generally average in the 40s through
the period, and only adjusted some of the valleys down a bit during
the more favored ridge/valley split pattern at times.

A brief bout of unsettled weather will be in place Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, as an upper level low passes through the
KY/TN border. Sharp upper level ridging will then take hold into
early next week, providing the dry and unseasonably mild weather. A
longer period of unsettled weather looks to return for the middle of
next week, as several short wave troughs move through the
Mississippi Valley. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the evolution
of the northern and southern streams, so have only maintained chance
POPs throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period as
today, southwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 knots will be the main
concern for aviation. Skies will remain relatively clear with the
exception of some cirrus. Towards the end of the TAF period some
mid level decks will roll into the area from the southwest
tonight. By 14z tomorrow, a 5 KFT layer will roll in with a few
showers possible by the end of the period. This may be enough for
a brief MVFR period due to visibility in showers.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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