Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 020656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR AGAIN.
MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
RIDGE TOPS. SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAWN.
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ONLY A 4 KFT CU LAYER DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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