Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 171904
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SOUTH OF KY OVER TN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KY TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE 8H
JET WILL RAMP UP AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWS FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY GOES SOUNDER DATA THAT WAS AVAILABLE PRIOR TO THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT
THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED AFTER THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. HERE AT NWS JACKSON...OUR DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
NORMAL OR BELOW EVERY DAY SINCE JULY 23RD. THAT TREND WILL LIKELY
END BY MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER FOR SURE.

DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A WEAKENED FEATURE LEFTOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT LIKELY
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE
TYPICAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT MAY POTENTIALLY BE AUGMENTED
BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE PRECIPITATION AREA MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH VFR PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 03Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING BUT LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL LINGER
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






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