Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LIMIT SHOWERS TONIGHT TO THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.

USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE INITIALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. ALL THE TOOLS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME VALLEY FOG AND/OR STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT. WENT WITH
THE TOOLS TONIGHT AND PUT IN SOME STRATUS AND MIST IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO LIFT AND THEN SOME BROKEN STRATO CU TOMORROW
THAT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF. BOTH OF
THESE COULD HAVE PROFOUND EFFECTS ON THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ






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