Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211333
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WAVE. THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDY...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER AS MOS
DATA LOOKS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING
UPDATE. A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS POINT AND THE NEWEST OBS
HAVE BEEN UPLOADED AND GRIDS SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

DID ONE LAST TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DAY
SHIFT TAKES OVER. THIS MAINLY CONSISTED OF FINE TUNING THE UPCOMING T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND THICKEN. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KT
FEET AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT 5
TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






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