Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 272146
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM







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