Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232340

National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Issued at 740 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Ingested the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends. Aside from that, no other changes to the
forecast were necessary at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

This is largely a persistence weather forecast with high pressure
in control at the surface and aloft. There has been a slight
increase in low level moisture as evidenced by the increased
cumulus field and this build up of clouds will likely reoccur
tomorrow afternoon. There could be some mid and high clouds in the
mix as well tomorrow as debris clouds from convection over the
Upper Midwest drops to the southeast and dissipates. The
increasing low level moisture should keep our temps a degree or
two warmer tonight compared to last night, with similar gains
expected again Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will again climb
well into the 80s to near 90. About the only weather to be
concerned with will be patchy valley fog early each morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Models have come into much better agreement with the transition
to a more fall-like weather pattern next week. This occurs as the
trough now over the Intermountain West splits and the northern
piece transitions eastward squashing the ridge and carving out a
trough over the eastern CONUS by Wednesday. At the surface, all
models have trended toward the faster and drier frontal passage
solution shown in the last several ECMWF runs.

As for sensible weather, unseasonably warm conditions will
continue on Sunday and Monday. PoPs increase by Monday afternoon
in advance of what now appears to be a Monday night frontal
passage. There remains some uncertainty with how widespread any
shower or thunderstorm activity will be with the frontal passage,
but QPF looks meager, generally less than a quarter inch. Kept in
a small PoP over our eastern counties on Tuesday, but the trend in
the models is for the front to be to our east by Tuesday morning
and for a much cooler and drier airmass to be moving in by that
time. Dry high pressure will then rule through the rest of the
week with very pleasant temperatures and humidity levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the
weekend producing VFR conditions for most areas with light and
variable winds. Patchy valley fog is again expected to develop
tonight but this should stay confined to the deeper river valleys,
so will not be mentioning fog at any TAF sites.




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