Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 292112 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Convection has increased in areal coverage across the middle of
the forecast area. As such, have increased pops to match up a bit
better with radar trends. Some of the storms have been producing
gusty winds and small hail, but overall, these are not as intense
as the ones from yesterday afternoon. Storm motions are also
a little more progressive, allowing for a lower threat of
localized flooding. Expect a gradual weakening trend to the
convection towards sunset. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Isolated showers and storms will continue to form and move across
portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. There is
just enough energy and moisture around for this convection to feed
off of. This activity is generally drifting from northeast to
southwest across the area. These showers and storms will likely
be short lived and weak and should be gone by the time the sun
begins to set. Overnight, we can expect to see mostly clear skies,
light winds, and areas of valley fog. Patchy dense fog may form
near bodies of water and in our deeper and more sheltered valleys.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area
weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly
cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrows highs
will still be quite warm, upper 80s and lower 90s, but the
humidity should be quite a bit lower, with max values in the 40s
and 50s during the afternoon, so the air should feel a bit more
pleasant tomorrow than it has over the past week or so.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The long term period will offer a reprieve from the heat and
humidity that has plagued the area over the past few weeks. At
upper levels, a long wave trough in place over Kentucky (through
the work week) will shift east, being replaced with ridging for
Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a weakening cold front will
drop through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. This
late timing of the frontal passage along with limited instability
should keep precipitation to a minimum with only a slight chance
for showers or storms. A cooler and much drier air mass will then
push into the area as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
Thursday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will fall from the
upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the
front beginning Thursday and lasting through the first half of the
weekend. Humidity levels will also be lower and more comfortable.
Temperatures and humidity start moderating back towards summer-
time levels Sunday as the surface high shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns. Labor Day looks to be warm and muggy with
dew points in the mid 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. No
precipitation is expected beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

A generally quiet period is in store, with generally VFR
conditions through out the period. There may be brief periods of
MVFR CIGs at any given airport this afternoon, but those should
occur so infrequently as to not warrant mentioning in the TAFs. We
might see an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but nothing
that would be widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Fog
will affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, mainly in the larger/deeper
valleys and near bodies of water. The fog should be gone by 10 am
on Tuesday, with VFR conditions expected after that.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM/ABE
AVIATION...AR


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