Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231239
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS
FORECAST...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LAID OUT FROM TX TO IA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. IT WILL LIFT OUT TO THE ENE AND WILL BE OUR MAIN FACTOR
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN TN WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL SURGE NE AND BRING A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP OVER SE KY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ONE MORE ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS
DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LOSS OF ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMIT ANY SNOW TO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTING PRECIP TYPE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN VS. SNOW. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE...SO FZRA AND
SLEET ARE NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLDER
AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD WORK TO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS MORE LIKELY FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR
ACCUMULATION...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ON RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WILL LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE REGION
WELL NORTH NEAR THE MAINE COAST.  WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF RIDGING
AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE.  THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE IN THE WEST.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
REGION PRIMARILY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  RIGHT NOW THINKING MUCH OF THIS WILL START IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  THEREFORE
DO HAVE SOME SNOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND THESE LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THAT BEST QPF DOES MOVE EAST AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  UNDER NW FLOW AND LEFT OVER
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND REDUCED CLOUD
COVER.  THEN WE SEE YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE RETURNING TO GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THEN RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT
WILL NOT LAST...AS A DETERIORATION TO IFR IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH. IT WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP...IT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW TO SE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TO NIGHT. THE SNOW
WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP ALONG AN NW OF A LINE FROM KSME TO KSYM BEFORE
DAWN...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL






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