Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010241
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1041 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEN EARLIER HAS
MOSTLY COME TO A END TONIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE SEEN ON RADAR AND PICKUP BY ASOS...OTHERWISE MOST
SPOTS ARE SEEING MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRATUS ACROSS OHIO/WV
POTENTIALLY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HOW FAR WEST
DOES THAT STRETCH. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO FORECASTED SKY
COVER AND ALLOW FOR CLOSER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL DATA. UPDATED
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE MESO MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS LOW IS
SUGGESTED TO BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH OF THIS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WE LOOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE UPDATED GRIDS WITH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INCLUDING RADAR. THIS DID LEAD TO KEEPING
THE POPS UP FOR A BIT LONGER IN THE AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONTINUING TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OR
DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL KEEP JUST A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN GOING THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WE MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN NO STRONG PUNCH OF DRY AIR OR
RIDGING. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE AREA WILL STAY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. AN EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT TO THE EAST AS
THE PERIOD STARTS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY PRECIP WITH THE
FEATURE...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES. AFTER
THIS...GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO GENERATE
A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT
IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD PERHAPS RECOVER ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

MOST SITES ARE KEEPING IN THE VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER THOSE SITES THAT DO SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS COULD SEE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR/IFR. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIEING THIS EVENING AND BASED ON
THE HRRR THIS WOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH EVENING. THEN WE TURN TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STATUS DECK OVERNIGHT AND HAVE GIVEN MOST
SITES A BKN MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VRB...UNLESS YOU
GET CLOSER TO A STORM OR OUTFLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ



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