Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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040
FXUS63 KJKL 172040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

Current conditions across eastern Kentucky feature some gusty
southwest winds caused from some decent mixing this afternoon. In
addition to the dry air in place and what has mixed to the
surface, some RH values have dropped into the 20 percent range
along with some decent southwest winds. This in addition to the
very warm air advecting into the area has resulted in some fire
weather concerns which should be coming to an end by 00Z this
evening as RH values recover into the 40 percent range by this
evening.

Tonight, with a ridge passing through, clear skies will remain for
much of the night before some cloud cover ahead of a disturbance
shifting northeast out of the lower MS valley area. Model trends
and observations might suggest a bit drier heading into this
feature than expected so lower pops below likely through Saturday
night. NAM and GFS trends significantly lessened QPF amounts with
this system and Superblend values confirmed this. Therefore, what
measurable precip does fall, will likely be less than a quarter of
an inch across much of the area. In addition, the origin of this
wave being from the southern stream will be lacking any
baroclinicity and so will be looking at very little instability.
As well, the warm trends will continue with high temps in
southwest flow tomorrow rising to well above normal values again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

A split flow long wave pattern is progged across the CONUS through
the middle next week, with amplified, but generally progressive
systems to contend with in this regime. The models continue to be in
good agreement through the weekend on the small scale features, but
then begin to diverge by late in the period due to evolution and
timing differences.

There is high confidence in the well above normal temperatures
progged for the extended portion of the forecast. Highs on Sunday
will average in the low to mid 60s, with readings in the 65 to 70
degree range expected for Monday and Tuesday, and then in the mid
60s for Wednesday and Thursday. A few daily high records may be
threatened on Monday. Lows will generally average in the 40s through
the period, and only adjusted some of the valleys down a bit during
the more favored ridge/valley split pattern at times.

A brief bout of unsettled weather will be in place Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, as an upper level low passes through the
KY/TN border. Sharp upper level ridging will then take hold into
early next week, providing the dry and unseasonably mild weather. A
longer period of unsettled weather looks to return for the middle of
next week, as several short wave troughs move through the
Mississippi Valley. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the evolution
of the northern and southern streams, so have only maintained chance
POPs throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period as
today, southwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 knots will be the main
concern for aviation. Skies will remain relatively clear with the
exception of some cirrus. Towards the end of the TAF period some
mid level decks will roll into the area from the southwest
tonight. By 14z tomorrow, a 5 KFT layer will roll in with a few
showers possible by the end of the period. This may be enough for
a brief MVFR period due to visibility in showers.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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