Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 281149 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO TO THESE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE
THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WORK EAST ENOUGH TO CUT THEM OFF. ALSO
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP
IN THE LOW 20S.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM DY6...THU AND ON. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE
AND GENERALLY ZONAL. BUT SIZABLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WILL KEEP WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST WINDOW.

FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION. CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND IT.

MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A STRONGER...DEEPER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
BOUNDARY BUT THE GFS STILL KEEPS THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WITH ITS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO
SHOW A STRONGER RETURN FLOW SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY
THE GFS BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS A LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DECIDED TO
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS HERE...FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TERM TIME FRAME.

THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS LEADS
TO A MUDDLED...UNCLEAR FORECAST. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...STAYED WITH A TRUE BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO RESPOND
NICELY...WARMING QUICKLY BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS OR HIGHER. ALSO
NOTICING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TREND IN THE SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH
SO THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH H850 TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO ABOUT -10C. BUT THE GFS HAS MODERATED QUITE
A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL PASS THROUGH JKL IN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES...DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TEMPORARILY.
BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.