Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 241530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL HAS FINALLY
EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS...SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE NOONTIME HOURS AS TEMPS RISE A BIT.
SOME OTHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. DUE TO THIS AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ALSO CANCELED THE WSW OVER THE EAST AS
WELL. THESE CHANGES HAVE REQUIRED A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY SITES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOUR WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EATS THIS MORNING. SYM
AND SME HAVE SEEN SNOW COMING TO A END THIS MORNING. SITES WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





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