Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260244
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS
AND FOG. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...ITS PRESENCE DOES COMPLICATE WHAT
WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE BENIGN FORECAST AS MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A RIBBON OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE...IT IS POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SHOULD ENOUGH MIXING HANG IN...THIS MAY
MANIFEST AS A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH JUST PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE.
SO...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPORARILY
STALLS OUR WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TWO SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST ONE...A COLD FRONT...BUT THEY ARE
STILL TRYING TO LOCK IN ON THE TIMING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COUPLED WITH SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF PRECIP NEAR 00Z POSES A PROBLEM FOR POPS.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM AREA WIDE...IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER IT WILL BE IN THE 12 HRS BEFORE OR AFTER 00Z...OR BOTH...FOR
THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED 50 PERCENT POPS IN THAT
AREA FOR BOTH PERIODS. WHILE THERE IS NO OFFICIAL 24 HR POP...IF
THERE WAS IT WOULD BE IN THE 70 PERCENT RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SE OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE FAIR WX AND TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IF THE
12Z RUNS PLAY OUT...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RUNNING WITH THIS. FOR NOW...WILL
CARRY LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND MID-UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY COULD
END UP NEEDING TO GO LOWER SHOULD THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN
THE VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE
VLIFR. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...ONLY EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY NEAR DAWN AT
LOZ AND SME AND VFR FOR JKL AND SJS. IN THE MORNING AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ






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