Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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251
FXUS63 KJKL 261534
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers that were moving across the western CWA as of 8am have now
encompassed much of eastern KY, while becoming slightly more
scattered in nature. Meanwhile, the mid level wave is currently
moving eastward into West Virginia. However, this is not deterring
new development on the backside of this span of showers. Pops will
likely need to be increased across the western CWA to account for
this continued redevelopment. Upstream a expansive line of showers
and thunderstorms continues to track eastward into PAH and INDs
CWAs as of 15Z.

These cells are producing strong thunderstorms, but with little
shear seem pulsy in nature. Latest hi res models (specifically the
HRRR which is initializing the best) continue to show the line
reaching central KY and diminishing in strength, with very little
concern for eastern KY and the JKL CWA. This remains to be seen
however. The hope is that continued shower development over
central and east central KY will move across our region and rob us
of some of our clearing and lift throughout the early afternoon.
However if we are able to get some clearing across the area, this
will only help to fuel temperatures and lift, so it is possible
some thunderstorms could sustain themselves into our area.
Especially since the arrival time to eastern KY will be during
peak afternoon convective times.

Will continue to monitor and update as needed. As of now, any pop
and weather updates have been published and sent to ndfd/web, with
a new forecast package sent out as well. Sky was also updated
accordingly, and the latest observations for temps, dew points,
and winds were loaded into the near term grids.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers have become very numerous over the western portion of the
area early this morning, as they continue their march eastward.
have raised pops to likely for most of the area during the
morning. There have been a few very sparse lightning strikes, but
have not included it in the forecast yet, thinking that the
probability at any given location is still quite low this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers developed over central ky during the night and were
starting to move into the JKL CWA at forecast issuance time.
These were occurring as a shortwave trough moved east in an area
of isentropic lift. The hrrr model was picking up on these
showers, but it has shown variation run to run. the forecast
loosely follows the evolution of the precip in the hrrr for this
morning. After this, the forecast transitions to a reliance on
the nam and gfs, with a possibility for more development with
afternoon heating.

The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place,
and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of
the ridge`s influence. The main westerlies were just to our north
and west, and this is where the better focus for convection will
be. Any pattern changes will be slow to come about. Will look for
a general diurnal trend for precip in our local area, with an
overall decline tonight, and another possible uptick with heating
on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures,
muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of
the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from
Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation
chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range
across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain
chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day
in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers were ongoing over all but the far eastern portion of the
area at taf issuance...with the back edge about to move into the
somerset area. The area of showers will continue moving east this
morning, affecting all taf sites for a time, but most precip
should be exiting to the east early this afternoon. More showers
and thunderstorms may pop up late in the day into the evening if
enough destabilization occurs. However, the probability at any
given site is low enough not to warrant more than vcts in the
tafs. Convection should dry up this evening, leaving vfr for a
time. Overnight, a moist atmosphere and decent radiating
conditions should result in valley fog.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



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