Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280551
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE HAVE NOW MOVED EAST AND NORTHEAST
RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. THIS HAS USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SOME STRATUS IS SKITING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED BUT
UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE. HAVE BLENDED EVENING OBS GRIDS INTO
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WITH NOTHING BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES LEFT...REMOVED THE POP
FROM THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CROSSING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG HIGHWAY 80 AT
THIS TIME. SOME MINIMAL CAPE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW STORMS BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AND OR PUSH
EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND OBS UPSTREAM...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY ENDING...THE CU UPSTREAM WILL DIMINISH. WITH SURFACE
RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT...THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONE PLACE
WHERE THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.

RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. FLOW REMAINING
WESTERLY WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL AND THEREFORE A
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY. TIMING WITH THE NEXT FEATURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
AN MCS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY/S DOORSTEP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE A BIT LACKING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EARLY
MORNING ARRIVAL. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE FORECASTED
ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS. FOR NOW...THE EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL AND
LACKING INSTABILITY SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH SPC/S SUGGESTED
MARGINAL THREAT ON MONDAY AND WILL MENTION A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH TROUGHING RESIDING IN THE EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
FLOW PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS
WELL AS PREDICTING HOW SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT...SO STUCK
CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. DID ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE UNDERCUT
OF THE POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME STRATUS SKITING THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...AS LOW DEEPENS JUST TO OUR NORTH HAVE KEPT MOST SITES
VFR GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE. THERE IS THE A BETTER POSSIBILITY
OF DECOUPLING AT SME AND LOZ...SO DID OPT TO KEEP THEM DEGRADING TO
MVFR VIS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 13Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ



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