Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 052230
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM


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