Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 141816 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
216 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue today.

- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the
  workweek.

- Hard freeze conditions Monday night and Tuesday night could kill
  any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due
  to early season warmth.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent
observations. Also, max T for most locations was trended up a
couple of degrees on average more toward the 7Z NBM 50th
percentile as the trend of highs above NBM deterministic should
continue for another day in the warm sector.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024

No substantive changes were necessary. Early morning temperatures
have been blended into the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 509 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024

Broad mid/upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this
morning, while a closed upper low embedded in a deep trough is
over the southwest CONUS. In between, low level flow is bringing
gulf moisture northward beneath a long west southwesterly fetch
aloft. The flow off the gulf meets with a frontal boundary
extending from TX to MO to OH, with a low over MO. The greatest
moisture advection is to our west, but with time we will finally
see more substantial increases in dew points today and tonight.
This will lead to showers and thunderstorms, mainly as the low
travels along the front and the front approaches late tonight and
moves through on Friday. However, even late today forecast
soundings show potential for thunderstorms over our far northern
counties. It remains to be seen exactly how convection which
develops upstream over MO and AR this evening affects our POP
timing. If the convection races eastward fast enough, we could see
our main rain earlier (such as late tonight into early Friday)
and have our POP cut into as the front passes (later on Friday).
It still looks like there will be rain-- just a matter of timing.
The period of high POP currently in the forecast may get trimmed
to a shorter length as details become more clear.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024

The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of a cold
front that`s forecast to move through the region on Friday.
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday
night before precipitation tapers off from west to east by Saturday
morning. Highs on Saturday are expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees
colder than Friday and highs will be even colder for Sunday. Upper-
level zonal flow will keep overnight lows relatively moderate as
lows are forecast to be in the low to mid-40s.

The weekend ends with a dry cold front crossing through the area.
Models have continued to trend drier and drier with this potential
system and now PoP chances have been entirely eliminated for Sunday.
However, the upper-level trough responsible for the cold front is
still expected to pivot toward the CWA and bring the potential for
rain/snow mix to the region for Monday afternoon. The areas mostly
likely going to see PoP will be along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Another chance of precipitation exists for Tuesday as
models are in agreement that a weak cold front will move through the
region Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually increase
through the week before models bring another system through the
region for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024

VFR was observed at issuance time across eastern KY. Daytime
mixing is leading to south to southwest winds 10 to 15 KT with
gusts as high as 10 to 25KT. Around or near sunset, winds and in
particular gusts should diminish. Convection over portions of
northern KY could affect locations near and north of I-64 such as
KSYM in a few hours and if it holds together. However, confidence
in this is not high. With any convection late this afternoon or
evening, localized brief sub-VFR conditions would result. There
is a much higher probability of showers and thunderstorms arriving
generally after 06Z and some brief sub-VFR may occur in this.
Moisture will continue to increase late in the period and
prevailing sub-VFR should arrive or develop toward 18Z and after.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.