Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 151021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED THE THE LAST OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
ALL LOCATIONS NOW SEEING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING. BASED ON THE
SPEED OF TEMPERATURE FALL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP UNDER FREEZING
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY WARM
TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING DRIVE. OVERALL...FORECAST
IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE...WILL FINE TUNE THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HUNTINGTON...TO JUST EAST OF
JACKSON...TO NEAR MIDDLESBORO THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE PASSING FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FOR MOST AREAS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WELL UNDER FREEZING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS. BASED ON
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED...SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR. THUS...PLAN TO
ISSUE AN ELEVATION BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES
BORDERING VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY
OR CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S OR 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...BUT DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH CLOUDS ON A GENERAL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL SET UP A RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL INTO THE
20S AND THE COLDER VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
WARRANTS THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. A BIG DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WE START OFF COLD...BUT SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS BIG
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FEATURE SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DIFFERENCES STILL ARISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR...AND A COMPROMISE/BLEND WILL
BE USED.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL BE
OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY
DRY...AND SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD RESULT. WILL
EXPECT FROST IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WE SHOULD BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST...WHICH COULD CUT INTO COOLING AND FROST POTENTIAL.

THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN
ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANY INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
WEAK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. DETAILS STILL LOOK MURKY...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING A SYSTEM... HAVE
USED POPS RISING TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 800
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





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