Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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