Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TRANSITING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPROACHES. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY APPEARS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL A CHALLENGE.
FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT. BUT AFTER SEEING GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGHTS ARE THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
AND MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TRANSITION OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA PROPERLY...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS AND FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO
EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE WE WARM UP QUITE NICELY TOMORROW
FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE HAD IN AWHILE. ENJOY IT WHILE
YOU CAN BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE SHOWING UP OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE  WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR
LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A
WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY






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