Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 271808 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HOURLY SKY...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION...BUT ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TENDING TO MIX OUT AS WELL. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX T STILL APPEAR ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LINGERING VALLEY FOG IS STILL EVIDENT ON VIS SAT IMAGERY AND THIS FOG
CONTINUES TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN PARTS OF THE FORKS OF
THE KY RIVER...PARTS OF THE BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEY AND TRIBUTARIES
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY UP RIVER FROM THE WILLIAMSBURG
AREA. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR IN MOST LOCATIONS...
OR WITHIN THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE LINGERING FOG IS HOLDING
BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SOME OF THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALL IS QUIET OUT THERE ON THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL MORNINGS...MORE VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK AND WILL JUST FRESHEN
UP THE HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS
TODAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 80 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY. BY LATE IN
THE DAY...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL CREEP
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ELSEWHERE AS DRY FORCING REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH INTO SUNDAY
EVENING THAT ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY TAKE A STEP BACKWARDS BY
A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MODELS AGREE ON A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PROMPTING
A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY NE OVER THE SE CONUS. IT
WILL PULL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF AND SEND IT NORTH
TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MODELS STILL CAN NOT COME TO FIRM AGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP DEVELOPS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS. WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE...A MODEL BLEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED. THE RESULT WILL
BE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SE COUNTIES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT POP IN OUR NW COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR A FEW
DAYS AT MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL OCCUR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. AT SUCH
LONG RANGE...SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN TIMING CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...CHANCE POPS WERE
WARRANTED FOR DAY 7/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL IMPACT THE AREA AFTER THE 3Z TO 6Z
PERIOD...BUT LIKELY MOSTLY AFFECTING THE KSJS BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z.
THE LAMP...GFS MOS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO BRING VIS DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN AIRPORT MINS AT LOZ AND SME...BUT HAVE OPTED TO GO AT LEAST ONE
CATEGORY MORE OPTIMISTIC. MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.