Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190225
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE TIMES AT THE TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY JKL AND SJS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. LATER TONIGHT...THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME MVFR FOG FORM AT JKL AND SJS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ON TAP AFTER THAT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





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