Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301940 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK.  OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.

THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CU DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE STORMS IS TOUGH TO DISCERN SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION
OF VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN SETTING UP. UNLESS RAIN DIRECTLY AFFECTS A
TAF SITE THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO REMAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT ANY TAF AIRPORT. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A VCSH IN PLACE. LATER ON SUNDAY...THE
NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF


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