Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 181911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN EASTERN
KY...WITH CLEAR SKIES IN OUR SW COUNTIES AND CEILINGS OF 4-5K FT AGL
OVER MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY...THE CEILINGS
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND LOWER IN HEIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
COOLING ALOFT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL GROW
GREATER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN LATE IN THE
DAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIE OUT IN THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL






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