Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 251406
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1006 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG...WHICH WILL
QUICKLY BE GONE. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONDITIONS ARE CALM THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
MORE FOG HAS SHOWN UP IN THE OBS THAN WAS ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE ELEVATED OBSERVATION/TAF SITES. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS FOG FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WITH A SLIGHT WIND
IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN SEVERAL
REPORTS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FORECAST
TO SAY PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG...AND HIGHLIGHTED POSSIBLE IMPACTS
IN THE HWO. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BURN OFF. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL ON TRACK
WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WAS FELT ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. VALLEY FOG HAS
BEGUN DEVELOPING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED
TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THIS FOG TO BE AS THICK OR
EXTENSIVE IN NATURE...SO WILL JUST KEEP WITH PATCHY WORDING. AS
THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL BUT WARM DAY WILL
UNFOLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS PROMOTING A PUSH IN THE
TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
AND SET ITS SITES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION...EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
CWA...BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE ELSE TO THE AFFECT THE FORECAST. BY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MAKE A QUICK SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT DOES
SO. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARING BOUNDARY AND INCREASING DEW POINTS.
THEN BY AFTERNOON...A SLIGHT CHANCE...AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANCE
POPS...WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOR WILL
THERE BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WIND SHIFT...ESPECIALLY AS IT WEAKENS
UPON APPROACH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE. THE JKL
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ONE OF
THE TROUGHS. CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON ITS PLACEMENT. THE
ECMWF HAS PRECIP OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM AREA MAINLY DRY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NW
TO SE SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST AND AN IMPULSE SLIDES DOWN ITS EASTERN SIDE. THERE IS
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE USED A GENERAL
INCREASE IN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE TAF
SITES TO BURN OFF DURING THE 12Z HOUR...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL AND
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRIED TO SHOW THIS TREND IN THE TAFS THOUGH NO CATEGORICAL
IMPACTS WILL BE LIKELY. NOT SURE YET HOW THESE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCES THAT WE COULD HAVE
ANOTHER REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT...WHERE MOST OF THE FOG IS CONFINED
TO THE VALLEYS BUT SOME TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...LEFT FOG OUT OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW


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