Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 180529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
129 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED BETTER LIFT ENTER
EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAWN
HOURS. NO CHANGE TO THE ZFP IS EXPECTED AS CURRENT POP FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. THE CONCERN WITH THE FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS TO MINOR AND
RATHER LOCALIZED SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THOSE ISSUES AS HAS THE
DAY SHIFT WITH THE HWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENTS CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED. ALSO THE HRRR AND NEW NAM WOULD ALSO
BE SUPPORTIVE ON NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THIS HEAVIER AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 11 PM TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE MODELS AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPSTREAM...THE CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER THINKING. THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES WILL SOME CREEKS...DITCHES
AND LOW WATER CROSSING RUNNING FULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SOUTH OF KY OVER TN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KY TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE 8H
JET WILL RAMP UP AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWS FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY GOES SOUNDER DATA THAT WAS AVAILABLE PRIOR TO THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT
THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED AFTER THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. HERE AT NWS JACKSON...OUR DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
NORMAL OR BELOW EVERY DAY SINCE JULY 23RD. THAT TREND WILL LIKELY
END BY MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER FOR SURE.

DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A WEAKENED FEATURE LEFTOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT LIKELY
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE
TYPICAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT MAY POTENTIALLY BE AUGMENTED
BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DOWN TO FIELD MINS EVENTUALLY...MAINLY THOUGH
WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OVER A POINT. WILL EXPECT TO KEEP THESE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING THE CEILINGS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE BELOW IFR IN 08Z TO 14Z
PERIOD. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THEN
PICKING UP OUR OF THE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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