Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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862
FXUS63 KJKL 301811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL KY...SOME MORE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED THE POPS HEADING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THIS AREA PROVES TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN
ANTICIPATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HEADING INTO
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TO IF THIS RAINFALL HINDERS ANY
DEVELOPMENT ON INSTABILITY LATER FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE
ISSUED A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM
MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER
VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL
SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A
DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER
PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK
INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING
FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR
HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADEAGAIN
BY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASING
UP TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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