Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HELPING TO CREATE NEAR IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO GET
OUTDOORS AND EXPERIENCE PERFECT AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER. UPDATED HOURLY
GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.

FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE  WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR
LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A
WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY






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