Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

19z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure
over eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This is keeping the wx dry,
so far, across the area though a decent cu field has developed at
between 4 and 6k feet AGL. The cloud development has not hindered
the temperature climb today, though, with readings up in the
upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
holding in the mid 60s with light winds generally out of the
north.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. Ridging will build through the region
this weekend, though it is sort of dirty with bits of energy
drifting through the higher height fields. Regardless, a blending
of the models will be a reasonable starting point.

Sensible weather will feature nice conditions through the rest of
the weekend and into the start of the new week. Look for areas of
fog to develop tonight and tomorrow night becoming locally dense
in the valleys late. During the days, fair weather cu will be
plentiful, but any shower chances will be sub 14%. Temperatures
will end up just a smidge higher than normal in the upper 70s and
low 80s most places.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point of all
the grids. Did make some changes to temperatures each night based
on terrain anticipating a small to moderate ridge and valley
split. As for PoP, have kept them low through the period - in
line with guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

The story in the extended will actually be temperatures this time
around. Based on the latest model data and the current weather
pattern, we should see slightly above normal temperatures with
highs in the lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s each
night. There will be a chance of showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon in our far western counties and across the entire area
on Wednesday. The rest of the period will be dry. Winds during the
extended should be generally light and variable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon though with some
scattered cumulus at generally around 5-6k feet agl before
diminishing this evening. Again, at least MVFR/IFR fog can be
expected in the valleys developing between 06 and 12z and these
may impact the SME, LOZ, and SJS TAF sites. Have set up some late
night tempos for this possibility. The fog clears out quickly
Sunday morning with more VFR conditions expected along with some
fair weather afternoon cu. Winds will average less than 5 kts
throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF



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