Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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684
FXUS63 KLBF 072053
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 55KTS OR
GREATER FOR KVTN...KANW...AND KONL THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER...BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW THE WIND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE 0C TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
A NICE CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK...BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF
THIS OCCURS...SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS MAY SPREAD SW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BRIEFLY. KONL WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THE SHOWERS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS



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