Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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923
FXUS63 KLBF 300002
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A SLOW MOVING SPRING STORM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE SEEN WITH COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THAT PROVIDE THE MOST CURRENT DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO FAR NWRN KS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES FCST NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LBF
THROUGH BBW LINE. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAYES...FRONTIER...LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTY.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS
NEAR 0C NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 83. BUFKIT SOUNDING SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE
AS SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IF NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER IN SOME AREAS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED HOWEVER
THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR WEST OF A VTN THROUGH NORTH PLATTE
AND HAYES CENTER LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST OF AN OGA THROUGH MULLEN AND CODY LINE.
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR GARDEN/SHERIDAN/ARTHUR/
GRANT/HOOKER AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ARE IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY FROM FAR NWRN
KS TOWARD SCTRL NEBR. A WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. KEPT DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND CONTINUED LIFT. THE EASTWARD SIDE OF
RAIN OR SNOW TO PUSH EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BACK FURTHER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO
5 INCHES OR HIGHER POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AND ADVISORY AREAS. EXACT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHICH IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT OF NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT OF ALL SNOW. DAYTIME
QPFS FCST UP TO AN INCH NORTH OF HWY 2 AND A HALF INCH OR LESS TO
THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A BLOCKING PATTERN CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. YET MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
EAST ON SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE OUT SLOWER THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW FORECAST TRENDS
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE BLOCK MOVES EAST TO
BRING DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS DECREASING BUT REMAINING COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE
EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEEDING TO
BE CUT SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT ENERGY CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
CREATES A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THEN
BEYOND...DRIER AND WARMER BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EAST WITH DAYTIME TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FT AGL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND VISBYS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 SM. SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...CIGS WILL FALL TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING
WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY WITH VISBYS AROUND 2 TO 4SM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY.
LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL ENDS WILL BE RIVER
RISE RESPONSES. RIVER POINTS ALONG THE ELKHORN...NORTH PLATTE...
SOUTH PLATTE...AND PLATTE BASINS ARE ALREADY ELEVATED AND RISING AND
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE ACTION STAGE. EVENTUAL MINOR RIVER
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ005-025-036-037-056>058.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ038-059-070-071.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-022>024-035-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG



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