Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS MAX
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY WELL MIXED WHICH
CAN BE ASSUMED BY THE OBSERVED WINDS AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS SEEING
GUSTS OF 30-40KTS. WITH CLOUDS MOVING EAST AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES DESPITE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS








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