Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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713
FXUS63 KLBF 210831
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Stratus is in place across the entire forecast area this morning
and the HRRR model shows it remaining so until around 20z.
Clearing is possible across just Wrn Neb. The stratus should fill
back in across the entire fcst area tonight.

None of the models show any elevated instability until late this
afternoon. A disturbance should move into Wrn Colo and spark
thunderstorms. The elevated instability lifts through the fcst area
tonight. At this time...moisture could become deep enough to weaken
a strong cap at 800mb. The models suggest storm coverage would
remain isolated to perhaps scattered and a few storms could produce
small or large hail.

The temperature forecast follows a blend of the very cool RAP model
and guidance plus bias correction. This produces highs in the
lower 60s to around 70. The RAP model indicated upper 50s to near 70.

A few showers are underway across Wrn Neb. These should lift
northeast out of the fcst area by morning. Isolated
showers...drizzle and patchy fog are forecast this morning and early
this afternoon.

Lows tonight fall into the 50s. The dew point forecast is on
track...perhaps a degree less than the observed. Mid 50s dew points
should be in place by this aftn and continue tonight.

Southeast winds strengthen to 15 to 25 mph this aftn and remain
strong tonight. Gusts to 35 mph are possible this aftn and tonight
across Wrn Neb.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The next significant weather system arrives on Sunday as a cold
front pushes across Nebraska and the northern Plains. Little change
in the SPC outlook tonight (most of western Nebraska is still under
a slight risk for Sunday afternoon and evening). Therefore, little
change was made to the forecast as conditions still look favorable
for strong thunderstorm development on Sunday, with large hail and
strong winds being the main concern. Thunderstorms will begin across
the western counties by late morning, before moving west. The best
location for the strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will be
across the northern and western counties. Rainfall totals between
0.75 and one inch are possible through Sunday evening.

One forecast change made tonight was in regards to the temperatures
across the eastern CWA which have been lowered a few degrees. Cloud
cover will persist across this area for much of the day making it
more difficult for temperatures to rise. Will keep the western
counties in the low 80s and have lowered the eastern counties into
the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures Sunday will depend a lot on where
the cloud line is and any little shift in where the clouds
eventually end up will greatly affect the temperatures.

As the cold front continues to push eastward, high pressure builds
into the region for Monday. However, this will quickly be followed
by a series of weak low pressure systems moving across the central
Plains from Tuesday through mid-week. For now... these storms are
not expected to be severe and precipitation will be on the lower
end. Cooler temperatures slowly filter into the region, with highs
in the low to mid 70s by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

MVFR stratus is expected to lower across the region overnight,
especially across southwest Nebraska and the KLBF terminal where
LIFR cigs area anticipated. Also will see the chance for drizzle
and/or fog develop and linger into the morning hours. Again
confidence is higher for impact across SW Nebraska, although it
could push into northern Nebraska and the KVTN terminal. Winds
are expected to increase, becoming gusty with gusts around 25 to
30 kts, in the afternoon and should limit the fog/drizzle
coverage. Redevelopment of the fog/drizzle is possible after
sunset, however will see how tonight plays out and confidence is
higher before reintroducing any FG/DZ into the forecast.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

WPC suggested heavy rain would remain mostly east of Lake
McConaughy for the next 7 days. The models however have been
trending west with 7-day rainfall totals approaching 1 inch across
the Neb Panhandle and areas below Lake McConaughy. It is uncertain
if this rainfall...which could be locally heavy...will exacerbate
the flooding on the North Platte River. The MBRFC will monitor this
situation. Minor to Moderate flooding should continue into June
regardless.

High flows are expected to continue on the South Platte River and
the Platte River due to snowmelt in Colo and the combine flow from
the North Platte River.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...CDC



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