Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 232333 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
533 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VERY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S IN MANY AREAS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE WARM WEATHER SHOULD LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP SOME
OVERNIGHT...WITH A 5 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 25 KT H850 MB
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MILD LOWS IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

THE MILD START TO SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAKE FOR AN EASY TEMPERATURE
CLIMB INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMBINING WITH WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF 5 TO
7C/ SHOULD ENSURE A WARM DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON WITHIN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIFT INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
NOT EXPECTING TO BE A BIG DEAL HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT ENOUGH IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR
A FEW DROPS TO SURVIVE AND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NCNTL NEB SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A MODEST IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-700MB MOISTURE
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE BLACK HILLS MAY TRIGGER SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS DRY.

THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD
LIKELY KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
COVERED NORTHWEST.

MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S IS A PRELUDE TO WARMER READINGS
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY MARK THE PEAK OF THE THERMAL RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THE ECE AND MEX GUIDANCE SHOW THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT H850MB STRENGTHENS INTO THE LOW TEENS
CELSIUS TUESDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOWN IN THE MODELS MAY HOLD UP
MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIMIT HIGHS TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY. OTHERWISE TUESDAY WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES THURSDAY INTO THE 40S. A PACIFIC HIGH WOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER GREAT SLAVE LAKE...NEAR 1056 MB IN THE GFS AND ECM. WE
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD FRIDAY...IN THE 40S...KNOWING THE MODELS CAN
BE 24 HOURS TOO FAST ON DAY 7. BUT NOTE THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND
GEM MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS ARCTIC PLUNGE. HOPEFULLY THE COLD AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE MULTIMODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER





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