Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 270458
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1158 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

REX PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
TO THE WEST HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT SATURDAY.

AT 19Z SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE ROCKIES...SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTH WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH
SOUTH REACHING THE NORTHWEST NEB PANHANDLE AROUND NOONTIME SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK
FOR LOWS. SATURDAYS ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TO
BE A CHALLENGE IN THE WEST. AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE.
FOR NOW TEMPERATURES FORECASTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST...BUT MAY STILL NEED TO GO HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S TO PERSIST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO UTAH
AND ERN IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT ...A FAIRLY STRONG H3 JET MAX WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS AZ INTO WRN CO. HAVE DELAYED AND
LOWERED POPS ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA DUE TO SLOWER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM. ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME VERY MERIDIONAL. A FAIRLY
STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL ROTATE FROM NRN NEW MEXICO INTO SRN CO MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH. LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT KEPT 30-40 POPS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 83 IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGHEST POPS NOW 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES WITH 40 TO 50 POPS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING IN BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN
THE 12Z GFS. FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS BEING A
PRIMARILY PACIFIC SYSTEM. RETAINED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL NORMAL IN MID 70S
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SEPARATE COOL FRONTS COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT UNDER 10 KTS
TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB





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