Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191209
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A PERSISTENT RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT. H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE
YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA. FURTHER EAST...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE GULF COAST.
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...A DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP DUE
SOUTH INTO MANITOBA ATTM...AND HAS FORCED AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO
BURWELL. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 3 AM CST READINGS RANGED FROM 24 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 35
AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...A FAIRLY
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS EXPECTED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
THE APPG ARCTIC FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM
AND GFS SOLNS...STALL THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 26 THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT
UNDER A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDINESS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE FREEZING MARK WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S AT
ONEILL...TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW...TO
THEDFORD TO HAY SPRINGS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
BECOMING ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT IS FORCED TONIGHT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AS
THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THIS FEATURE WEST COMPARED
TO THE GFS SOLN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE NAM SOLN
SEEMS TO BE OVERESTIMATING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS HANDLING ACTUAL SNOW
COVER BETTER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINKING HERE...IS A FRONTAL
POSITION MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE SNOW COVER SITUATION. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...INVOF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BREAKS DOWN. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR A GREATER INFLUENCE OF PACIFIC AIR ATOP THE
REGION...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER THERE/S STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
A GREATER INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. MODIFIED RECYCLED ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE MID 20S...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA
FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST INTO THE
LOWER 40S. A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG SIGNAL IS SHOWN BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BUFR SOUNDING SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LIFT. ICE WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE COLUMN AS THE DGZ IS NOT SATURATED...THUS SUPER-COOLED
DROPLETS WOULD BE THE EXPECTED HYDROMETEOR. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...THUS FREEZING FOG MAY BE PREFERRED. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED THE -FZ INTO THE FORECAST...CONSISTENCY
PREVAILED...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SUCH THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MAY APPROACH 60F BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND POINTS NORTH. THESE READINGS MAY BE TOO WARM
DEPENDING IF THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES A GREATER WESTERLY TRAJECTORY
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...BUT AS OF NOW THE COLDEST AIR SHOULD
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY. FOR BOTH TERMINALS BROKEN CIGS AROUND 3000 FT AGL
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SOME LIMITED CLEARING POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TDY AT 15 TO 25 KTS...DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB





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