Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130608
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Update to Aviation for 6Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Clouds have been slow to erode behind the Arctic cold front today
and temperatures have held fairly steady under the cloud cover
around the freezing mark or slightly below for most of the CWA and
still in the 40s across parts of south central Missouri. Radar was
showing some very light echoes across south central and southern
Missouri, but have not seen any reports of drizzle/freezing
drizzle at this time. Deep upper level trough evident on water
vapor imagery was just off the California coast.

Main forecast focus will be with the impending freezing rain and
ice accretion over the next couple of days. We have upgraded our
watch to an ice storm warning this afternoon and the far southern
Missouri counties were put in a freezing rain advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

For tonight, short term models are driving the freezing line to
near the MO/AR border overnight, with precipitation expected to
start developing by late evening and overnight across far southern
Missouri. Will likely see freezing rain develop over almost all
but the extreme far southern sections of Missouri which may remain
above freezing during the overnight hours. A freezing rain
advisory has been issued for the counties bordering  Arkansas
from Midnight until Friday noon, with an ice storm warning
beginning at midnight for the remainder of the counties in our
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The precipitation which develops overnight tonight will gradually
shift northward on Friday morning spreading across the remainder
of the area. The freezing line will gradually creep northward to
near the US 60 corridor during the day friday and along the I44
corridor Friday night. Parts of central and west central Missouri
into southeast Kansas may remain below freezing until around
Midday Sunday. The areas which are below freezing the longest will
have the most ice accretion and we have areas mainly north and
west of a Pittsburg Kansas to Rolla line in an Ice storm warning
until noon Sunday. Areas along and north of this line can expect
from a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, with
possibly higher localized amounts. Further south, the freezing
line should move through quicker with a quicker onset to rain from
freezing rain. We are expecting a quarter to half inch of ice
roughly between the US 60 and I44 corridor.

By Sunday afternoon, the warmer air will continue to advance
northward with the precipitation expected to be all rain by this
time frame. There may be a lull in the action during the afternoon
Sunday after this first batch of rain/freezing rain lifts
northward and prior to the showers/thunderstorms arrival with the
main wave. Most of this precipitation should arrive Sunday night
into Monday night. Models continue to bring instability northward
into the area for continuing the mention of thunderstorms as this
main wave pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Isentropic lift has developed across Arkansas and is lifting
north into the area early this morning. Showers will start to
spread into southern Missouri early this morning and ceiling will
lower through the night. Drizzle will develop as ceilings lower
with showers at times, in between the showers drizzle will be
likely. The showers will start to spread north of the area by late
this morning, but drizzle will occur through the afternoon and
evening. IFR to LIFR ceilings will develop this morning and remain
into the afternoon with MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Temperatures will be at or below freezing at the TAF sites at the
start of the precipitation so it will be in the form of freezing
rain or freezing drizzle. Warmer air will start to spread north
into the KBBG site by late morning changing it over to drizzle.
The warmer temperatures will be slow to warm north and there is
questions if above freezing temperatures can back it as far north
of KSGF and KJLN, and if they do can temperatures cool back below
freezing during the evening. One degree either way could be the
difference between freezing drizzle or drizzle occurring into the
evening hours at KSGF and KJLN. At this time went with drizzle
late afternoon and evening, but again if temperatures are just
slightly cooler freezing drizzle will continue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Friday for MOZ097-101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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