Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Not much change to the overall forecast. Today was a transition
to a brief period of hot weather as s-ssw winds kicked and the
eastward extension of the upper level ridge centered over the
southwest U.S. edged east back into the area. Increased sw winds
will bring somewhat warmer temperatures/heat index values area wide
on Saturday. Will reissue a heat advisory for a few western
counties Saturday afternoon where heat index values look to have
the best chance to reach 105 deg F, and most areas will at least
be near 100 deg F (heat index) for a time in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A closed upper low centered over sw Saskatchewan will move
southeast and open up, pivoting around a persistent upper low over
or nearby Hudson Bay. This will drive a cold front south through
the region Sunday. Still have some small pops with the air mass
transition/front but overall deep moisture and rain chances look
to be fairly sparse. If some stronger updrafts can get going, we
could see some isolated severe storms late Saturday night into
Sunday, but chances look low at this point.

A persistent blocking pattern over the ne Pacific into North
America looks to remain in place for much of next week with hot
weather over the western U.S, and cool weather over much of the
central and eastern U.S.. Could see some very light
isolated/scattered showers/sprinkles late in the week, but feel
better chances for that will occur west of the region. Persistent
light east-northeast winds will keep the low levels dry and
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period as upper ridge of high
pressure remains in control across the region. Will see pressure
gradient tighten up on Saturday and some late morning through
afternoon mixing will lead to some surface gusts approaching 25
kts. Low level wind shear will be possible tonight with 35 to 40
kts of shear above the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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