Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A cold front will sag southeastward toward the Ozarks region
tonight and across the area on Thursday. Thunderstorms will
develop along this front through the evening and approach
southeastern Kansas and central Missouri late tonight. The risk
for severe weather will remain primarily to our northwest for
lingering strong convection may impact areas generally northwest
of a Pittsburg Kansas to Versailles Missouri.

Scattered showers and storms will accompany the frontal passage
Thursday. Expect convection to reintensify a bit later in the
morning into the afternoon across southern Missouri with the help
of daytime heating. Instability will be sufficient for the
potential of localized strong or severe storms. The activity will
shift southeast across the area during the day and end most areas
by Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The aforementioned front will stall just to our south across
northern Arkansas and Oklahoma Thursday into Saturday. Meanwhile
upper level disturbances will track east. These systems and an associated
low level jet will interact this boundary to produce periods of
showers and thunderstorms. The activity will begin as early as
late Thursday night across the far southern Missouri and impact
the entire region Friday into Friday night. The heaviest rainfall
looks to come in two rounds on Friday and Friday night. Rainfall
will become more showery in nature Saturday and gradually taper
off as an upper low pressure system tracks east into the region.
Stronger convection cannot be ruled out Friday across far southern
Missouri in closer proximity to the front.

Storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to range from two to
four inches. Locally higher amounts up to five inches cannot be
ruled out. The higher amounts will likely occur across far
southwestern Missouri. The risk for flooding will develop Friday
through Saturday if this rainfall materializes.

Emergency management and those with interests in flood prone areas
should closely monitor the latest weather information.

Much cooler temperatures will arrive Saturday with the upper low
with highs struggling to get out of the 40s.

Drier weather and a warming trend will return late in the weekend
into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A cold front will move through the Ozarks region and impact the
regions terminals during the overnight hours and into Saturday
morning. Ceilings and visibilities should fall to MVFR as storms
move through aerodrome. The ceilings are expected to lift after
sunrise and behind the front into Saturday afternoon. This will
depend however on the speed of the front.


MO...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
     for MOZ077-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
     for KSZ097-101.



LONG TERM...Foster
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