Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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936
FXUS63 KSGF 170002
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Our next fast moving mid level system is currently over New Mexico
this afternoon and will race across the central U.S. tonight.
Short term guidance indicate light precip developing and moving in
from southwest to northeast across the area late tonight into
Saturday morning. Light precip will begin to move into southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri between midnight and 3 am. This
shield of precip will cover much of the area by 6 am.

On the leading edge of the shield of precip, temperatures will be
around freezing and light snow will be likely. As warm advection
with southerly winds kicks in, temperatures will slowly creep
upward above freezing from southwest to northeast and the light
snow will change to just a cold rain. Impacts will be very minimum
if any due to recent warm weather and warm ground. There could be
an isolated slick patch or two on elevated bridges or road
surfaces. Only minor and brief light snow accumulations if any are
expected on grassy surfaces and elevated objects. The light rain
will end from west to east during the late morning or midday
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Southerly winds will increase on Sunday with a return to much
warmer weather. Sunday will be the pick day this weekend with
highs back in the 60s. A large upper level trough will develop and
dig across the western U.S. for early next week. In response, a
surface low will develop and deepen across western Kansas. Early
next week will be breezy across the region and moisture will
drastically increase from the Gulf of Mexico.

Showers will become likely late Sunday night into Monday. Limited
elevated instability will develop on the order of 250 to 500 j/kg
along with high Bulk shear values. Not enough for any strong
convection at this time but enough for a few thunderstorms. A
cold front will slowly move through the region Monday into
Tuesday. The region will remain in a deep southwest flow aloft
with plenty of moisture. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with the slow nature of the weather pattern. Several
inches of rainfall will be likely but as of right now there are no
hydro concerns due to drought conditions. Colder air behind the
front will filter in with moisture over riding back into the
colder air. Some of the rain may change over to a light wintry mix
late Tuesday into Wednesday. There maybe a small break with the
precip chances on Thursday before another round of rain returns
late next week. Overall the main weather message for next week is
unsettled and wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A fast moving disturbance moving from the
southern Plains and through the lower and middle Mississippi Vly
region will bring a chance for light rain and wet snow and lower
mvfr/ifr ceilings during the taf period, primarily 10z-18z.
Improvement in flight conditions is expected late in the taf period
with weak high pressure moving into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA



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