Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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857
FXUS63 KSGF 170734
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
134 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The warming trend will continue today with temperatures well above
normal. Southerly winds and upper level ridging will push
temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The continued dry
and breezy conditions will result in an elevated fire weather
risk but conditions will not be as critical as Thursday.

An upper low will move from west Texas across the Red River Valley
tonight. Moisture advection of ahead of this system will result in
an increase in clouds later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The upper low will make its way across the Ozarks region on
Saturday as it weakens. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Saturday. Some
patchy drizzle or a few light showers cannot be ruled out across
southern Missouri but dry weather will be the rule. Despite the
clouds temperatures will remain rather warm.

The unseasonably warm weather will continue Sunday as an upper
level ridge builds back over the region. Most locations will climb
well into the 70s.

The next upper level trough and a Pacific front will approach
Sunday night into Monday. Scattered showers will accompany this
system. Modest instability may be enough to support a few
thunderstorms Monday.

The warm weather will continue into the middle of next week as a
more zonal pattern evolves. The next system of interest and
potential for active weather will approach the region toward the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR will continue through the next 24 hours across the area with
mostly clear skies and south-southwesterly breezes. Have included
some potential for non convective low level wind shear through
early morning with a strong low level jet right off the surface.
South-southwest winds will again gusts up to 20 knots by late
Friday morning through the afternoon.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

We may approach record high temperatures the next few days and
especially Sunday.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
Joplin77/191178/198675/2011
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981
Vichy-Rolla73/201172/199170/2004


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Foster



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