Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220433
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1133 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The last full day of Summer 2016 is certainly feeling like it,
with early afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with
dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Tonight will be
another warm overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 60s for
most.

Thursday looks to be exceedingly similar to today, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints may be a touch lower, though
likely not enough to make a noticeable difference.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Friday and Saturday will continue to feature temperatures in the
80s, with dewpoints remaining quite high for this time of year.

By late Saturday, model guidance is in fair agreement in bringing
a deep trough and associated cold front east across the Plains.
Precipitation chances are expected to increase Saturday night to
our west, with the best rain chances looking to occur on Sunday as
the front moves through. Notably, the ECMWF is quite a bit deeper
and slower with the upper low, resulting in a much slower frontal
passage. This solution would suggest rain chances continuing
through at least Monday.

Confidence is quite low given poor model performance over the
last several days, but most extended guidance is (for now at
least) closing this weekend`s trough off as a large upper level
low across the central CONUS through the first half of next week.
This would be suggestive of somewhat cooler and less humid
conditions for the region. Precipitation chances will be highly
dependent on the location of the upper low, with showers likely in
the vicinity of the upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

No aviation concerns for pilots in and out of the Missouri Ozarks
region. VFR will prevail. Might see some brief light fog at BBG
around sunrise in the morning. Have mentioned this as a TEMPO
group from 11z to 14z otherwise good flying conditions through
Thursday afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.

SGF...

9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937

JLN...

9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986

UNO...

9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984

VIH...

9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Boxell



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