Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
FXUS63 KSGF 182344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

More of the same expected tonight into Friday albeit an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Isolated to scattered convection will impact far southern Missouri
into this evening mainly near the Arkansas border in closer
proximity to a deep moisture plume. Can`t rule out additional
showers development overnight as deeper moisture advects farther

Will again see at least patchy fog and perhaps of a greater
coverage of low stratus late tonight into Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

After some areas of morning fog and stratus expect to see isolated
to perhaps scattered convection develop Friday afternoon. This
activity will be of the pulse variety and no severe weather is
expected during the day Friday.

More organized showers and thunderstorms will approach the region
Friday night from the northwest ahead of an advancing cold front.
This activity will initially develop to our northwest across
Kansas and northwestern Missouri Friday afternoon then spread
southeastward toward the Ozarks region later Friday night. A
weakening trend will occur with these storms move into the area.
However we do expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms
later Friday night.

Showers and thunderstorms will spread east across the Ozarks
Saturday morning as the cold front pushes southeast. Convection
will end from west to east Saturday afternoon as the front swings
across the area. Severe storms are not expected Saturday at this

While the overall risk for severe weather is limited, frequent
lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall
could accompany the stronger storms.

Pleasant summer weather is expected Sunday as surface high
pressure builds southward into the area. Quiet weather will
persist into Monday but temperatures will begin a warming trend.

More active weather will again unfold during the middle and later
part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected to start this cycle over SGF and JLN
terminals. BBG had shower activity near the terminal earlier,
however, this activity is drying up pretty quickly. Went ahead and
kept VCs for BBG given the proximity to higher concentration of
showers...mainly south.

VFR ceilings will gradually deteriorate overnight and into Friday
morning. IFR conditions are likely across all terminals through
around mid to late morning. Some decrease in surface visibilities
are possible as well with BBG being the most impacted. Gradual
improvement is then expected for the remaining portion of the TAF
period, however, we`ll have to watch the last 18-24 hours as
rain/storm chances will begin to gradually increase across the
area. Decided to add VCs after 18z for now to cover this


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.