Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161141

641 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Cloud cover in place across the region behind a cold front that
moved through last night will keep the region in MVFR ceilings
through much of the day. Ceilings should lift to VFR this evening
for much of the overnight. A return of MVFR ceilings is expected
for around sunrise on Wednesday. Some convection is possible
across western Missouri late this evening into the overnight, and
have included VCTS for the Joplin aerodrome. Will need to monitor
trends later today before including terminals farther east.




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