Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Low pressure over the Great Lakes will produce some moderately
gusty west winds today. Clouds rotating around the associated
upper low will affect at least the northern cwfa. It will be
quite a bit colder with highs mostly in the 40s, possibly touching
around 50 along at AR/MO line. Winds will diminish tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thu-Fri: Overall it will be quiet with diminishing/light winds.
High pressure will begin to move in as the low pressure over the
Great Lakes continues to shift east. A weak sfc trough will pass
through Thu night with another stronger sfc high center moving
through the Corn Belt (Neb-IA-northern MO) late Fri-Fri night.
There will be a bit of N-S gradient in high temperatures Thu and
Fri but overall highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the
upper 20s/low 30s.

Weekend: There is good agreement, at least through early Sat that
a shortwave will dig southeast and close off over northern Mexico.
Differences develop on how quickly the upper low will lift ene
into the southern U.S with the ECMWF fastest, GFS and ensembles
slowest. Canadian is the mid ground. Meanwhile a northern stream
shortwave will also approach from the west with some moisture
lifting northward ahead of it. The consensus is that there will be
chances for some light precipitation over the weekend from late
Sat/Sat night/early Sunday. Rain will be the main precip type, but
a mix or brief change to wet snow will be posisble late Sat
night/early Sunday, especially over the northeast cwfa. Given the
relatively warm temperatures which will be near or just above
freezing, and light precip amounts (qpf), we are not expecting
much (if any) impact if it does snow.

Mon-Tue. A lot of questions are mostly due to timing during this
period. There is a actually decent guidance consensus on big
picture/synoptic scale features depicting a strong jet streak
that will dig/deepen a large upper level trough into the western
CONUS Mon/Tue. This will push a cold front into our region late
Mon night/Tue. By Tue, guidance is all over the place in terms of
placement/timing/eastward progression of the front, primarily
based on how far east the longwave trough will make it by this
time. There is general agreement that the prefrontal air mass
looks fairly dry so precip chances Mon night into Tue don`t rise
too high at this point. The ECMWF is completely dry and pushes the
front through faster versus the GFS. We have low confidence by day
7 (Tue) given the timing differences.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

With the exception of some moderately gusty westerly surface
winds, there will be little impact on aviation concerns for the
Ozarks terminals through the next 24 hours. Surface winds will
become lighter overnight with clear skies.




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