Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201112

612 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Upper level ridging remains in place across the region early this
morning as an upper level trough is located across New Mexico.
This upper level trough will slowly push east across Texas and
Oklahoma today, and tonight it will then push across the area on
Monday. This trough will shear as it pushes farther to the east.

Ahead of this trough another warm day is on tap today as highs
warm into the middle to upper 70s. A dry airmass is currently in
place across the region and moisture will slowly increase from
west to east later today into tonight. Clouds will increase today
from west to east. The area will remain dry through this

As the upper level trough tracks east and moisture increases,
showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to develop later this
evening into the overnight hours. This activity will be scattered
in nature. The showers with embedded thunderstorms will become
more widespread during the day on Monday as the trough tracks
across the region. Instability will remain limited enough to where
severe storms are not expected.

A cold front will sag south through the area Monday evening and night
keeping showers possible across the area into the early overnight

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Upper level ridging will then build back over the region by
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

An upper level low will then track east across the northern Plains
Thursday. The upper level low will push a cold front east into
and through the region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the
front as it pushes through the region.

The front will push into southern Arkansas on Friday and will
then lift back to the north as a warm front on Saturday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday into
Saturday night as the front slowly lifts through the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Shortwave energy will begin to move in from the southwest later
today and tonight with showers likely to start later this evening.
Ceilings will gradually lower through the day with generally VFR
to MVFR conditions expected. Surface winds will be out of the
southeast to south but should stay at or below 15 kts.




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