Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Late this Afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Our main focus will be on convection currently firing across
central Kansas. There are multiple contributing factors which
favor this convection growing upscale into a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) this evening. This includes an atmosphere which will
favor increasing thunderstorm coverage owing to a mid-level short
wave trough and a strengthening low level jet. Additionally,
strong differences in theta-e between the surface and 3 km agl
will support aggressive conglomeration of cold pools.

This system should take on forward propagating characteristics and
move southeast towards western Missouri this evening. Thus, we
have continued the mention of damaging winds and perhaps some
large hail from this MCS. This system should become increasingly
outflow dominant with time as it moves east across portions of
the Ozarks. Thus, the severe threat will wane the farther east you
go across the region.

Thunderstorm chances then appear to be rather low for Friday once
any remaining morning activity clears the area. We will have to
watch for any remaining outflow boundaries, however the presence
of short wave ridging should inhibit initiation over most areas.
Friday again looks very warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The setup again looks favorable for MCS development Friday night,
but farther to the north from northern Kansas into southeastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. This system should then track southeast
and impact portions of central Missouri and the Missouri Ozarks.
There will again be a threat for damaging winds and perhaps some
hail with this activity.

Saturday then looks very warm and dry before a cold front pushes
through the area from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms look pretty good for much of the
area with this frontal passage as upper level energy dives
southeast into the Great Lakes and Corn Belt. At this point, it is
tough to say when precipitation will clear out of the area on
Sunday.

Drier weather and cooler temperatures can then be expected to
start next work week. There is a weak signal for more
thunderstorm potential by midweek. Temperatures should warm back
up to near normal by Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An area of showers with
embedded scattered storms will spread across the area during the
early overnight hours. On the leading edge of this activity gusty
western winds will occur as an outflow boundary from earlier
storms to the west pushes east across the area.

Otherwise VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period.
Southwesterly winds will pick up Friday morning and afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



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