Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A quiet morning across much of the region. The convection that
had moved out of Kansas last evening has since dissipated. There
is still some showers/thunderstorms across northern Kansas and far
northern Missouri, but these will remain out of the forecast area.

Shortwave trough lifts out of Kansas and across northern Missouri
today and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region tonight.
This will push a weak surface trough into southern and central
Missouri today which will then be the focus for any convective
activity as atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Models do begin
to push best forcing with the wave away from the area this afternoon
at the time of max destabilization. Surface and even 850mb wind
fields do not show much convergence and given that, expect
convection to be more widely scattered. A marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms still looks reasonable based on instability
parameters, and weaker 20 to 30 knot 0-6KM bulk shear.

This widely scattered activity will continue into the evening hours
but will likely weaken and perhaps dissipate completely overnight.

Expect a little more in the way of sun this afternoon, so
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday looks like a relatively quiet day for the most part. The
weak surface trough pushes into northern Arkansas with a light
northeast expected over the area. Any storms would be quiet
limited in coverage and confined to far southern Missouri.

For Sunday night and Monday models begin to increase precipitation
chances across the area. Still some uncertainty for Sunday night,
as NAM is the only model that wants to develop elevated convection
over northeast Oklahoma and bring it into the area late Sunday
night. GFS on the other hand ties convection to the shortwave poised
to cross into the Ozarks on Monday. At this point, Monday looks
like the better chances for more showers and thunderstorms.

As we head into the middle part of the week, overall pattern begins
to undergo a change. An upper level low will drop across the
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region
Tuesday and Wednesday which will open the door for a cold front to
drop into the region. This will keep rain chances in the forecast
for both days. As the low becomes more of an open wave Thursday
and Friday as it pulls through the Great Lakes, ridging will
build across the western conus, with a northwest flow regime
setting up for the area. A large surface high finally spreads into
the Plains THursday night and Friday ending the daily rain
chances that we have seen this past week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A weakening area of
showers/thunderstorms n-nw of the taf sites should stay out of the
area. A weak front will slowly approach from the west late in the
taf period with south winds gradually veering to the southwest
with some moderate gusts at times after 15z. Showers/tstms could
again develop after 18z but coverage is expected to be limited.
Did include a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
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