Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241128
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A return to hot and humid conditions is on the slate for today
as weak upper level height rises overspread the region. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the
warmest readings along and west of the U.S. 65 corridor. With
muggy conditions also persisting, afternoon heat indices will
range from 95-100 degrees. South to southwest winds will be on the
breezy-side today which may offer at least a little relief from
the heat and humidity.

There will be a few lower-end opportunities for precipitation
today, however most areas will remain dry. The first opportunity
for precipitation will come this morning as weak isentropic
upglide overspreads the area. The last few runs of the RAP
indicate uncapped parcels in the 825-700 mb layer as the upglide
overspread the area. What this may result in is some high-based
isolated convection overspreading the U.S. 60 region early this
morning with this area then shifting northeast with time.

The second shot at precipitation may then come late this afternoon
over portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. Convection will fire along the I-35 and I-70 corridors
in eastern Kansas as short wave energy moves northeast across the
region. The convection should be most focused near the I-70
corridor in the vicinity of a surface front. It is possible that
some of this activity grazes portions of our far northwest.
Otherwise, the chances for surface-based convection look very
low across the remainder of the Ozarks as we should remain fairly
capped off.

Convection should then increase tonight from around Wichita to the
Kansas City metro and on into northern Missouri/southern Iowa.
Wind fields will support this convection moving more in a east-
northeasterly fashion once cold pools conglomerate. This again
will keep the bulk of the convection north of the area. We do have
PoPs in the 20-40% range up towards Truman Lake in case some of
these storms develop/track a bit farther south than anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The question then becomes where that front will track late this
work week. While there may be a few weak short wave troughs that
track northeast across the central Plains, there is not much
synoptic scale support for that frontal boundary moving southeast.
Convectively-induced outflow may turn out to be the bigger driver
regarding overall frontal position late this week.

With that being said, the best chances for thunderstorms will
likely extend from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri for
Thursday into Friday as there will be better focus with that
frontal boundary somewhere in the area. We could see some
afternoon pop-up storms across the remainder of the Ozarks. This
is especially true with models (especially the NAM) indicating an
increase in mid and upper level moisture from the south starting
Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be
a few degrees cooler versus what we will see for highs today.

Saturday and Sunday then continue to look somewhat interesting
despite the front lifting back north of the area. The GFS shows a
lobe of 500 mb vorticity extending northeast across the Ozarks
while the ECMWF shows more in the way of a Gulf-origin mid-level
short wave trough moving north out of the the Arklatex region
during the afternoon. Regardless, both models indicate potential
areas of mid/upper level focus along with a continued increase in
mid/upper level moisture. This is a good recipe for scattered to
perhaps numerous pop-up storms.

A less-defined southwesterly flow aloft is then projected to set
up over the Ozarks early next week. We have therefore maintained
20-40% PoPs as these regimes tend to be fairly supportive of pop-
up pulse-type storms. High temperatures from this weekend into
early next week will be near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours across the Missouri
Ozarks region. Gusty south-southwest winds up to 20 knots will be
around the TAF sites later this morning through the afternoon.
Skies will be generally mostly clear to partly cloudy.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin


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